Wayne Mapp - The New Zealand Paradox: Adjusting to the Change in Balance of Power in the Asia Pacific over the Next 20 Years

Wayne Mapp is a commissioner in the New Zealand Law Commission. He was previously the minister of defense and minister of science and innovation from 2008 to 2011. As minister of defense he was responsible for developing a White Paper on Defence, which laid out the pathway of New Zealands defense policy and capability through 2030. He was the countrys first minister of defense in 27 years to be hosted by the U.S. Pacific Command at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. He was the member of Parliament for the North Shore electorate in Auckland from 1996 to 2011, and he was awarded the Companion of the Queens Service Order for parliamentary and ministerial services in 2013.

Dr. Mapp was born in 1952 in Northland, New Zealand, and grew up on a farm in Reporoa, in the central North Island. He gained a bachelor of laws with honours at the University of Auckland, a master of laws from the University of Toronto, and his PhD in international law from the University of Cambridge. He worked in private practice after graduation. From 1984 to 1996, he lectured at Auckland University where he was an associate professor of commercial law and member of the University Senate. He specialized in international law, taxation law, and constitutional issues. He has published internationally in these areas. Dr. Mapp was a commissioned officer in the New Zealand Army (Territorial Force), where he specialized in military intelligence, infantry, and signals. He has a private pilot license and is also a glider pilot.

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The author is deeply grateful to those at CSIS who assisted with this reports publication. I would like to thank Ernest Bower, codirector of the CSIS Pacific Partners Initiative and Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies; Gregory Poling, fellow with the Pacific Partners Initiative and the Sumitro Chair; and Elke Larsen, research assistant and program coordinator with the Pacific Partners Initiative and the Sumitro Chair, for their support and assistance.

I would also like to thank John McKinnon, former New Zealand secretary of defense and current executive director of the Asia New Zealand Foundation, and John Allen, New Zealands chief executive and secretary of foreign affairs and trade, for their advice and input.

O ver the next two decades New Zealand faces a paradox. The countrys security and economic relationships are being pulled in opposite directions. Over the last 20 years, these relationships have become increasingly divergent. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC)is rapidly becoming New Zealands most important economic partner behind Australia. At the same time New Zealand is forging a new security relationship with the United States. This divergent tendency is likely to intensify over the next two decades.

At first blush this paradox would seem to be unsustainable, especially when viewed from the perspective of 2030. By that time, China is almost certain to be the worlds largest economy, and will be New Zealands most important economic partner in trade, investment, and services.

China will also expect to have influence in global affairs that will reflect its economic status. Understandably New Zealands strategic partner, the United States, will not view this change in world affairs with equanimity. It will seek to counter this development by reinforcing U.S. engagement with the Asia-Pacific nations with reference to its more attractive liberal democratic values.

The United States will be able to back up these qualities with the scale of its economy, which will still be comparable to that of China and which will have deep international connections, including with New Zealand. The United States will also have military forces with global reach, which for the next 20 years at least will be unrivaled. But it will be challenged by the increased tempo of the arms buildup in East Asia.