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Audrey Kurth Cronin - Ending Terrorism: Lessons for defeating al-Qaeda

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Ending Terrorism: Lessons for defeating al-Qaeda
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Audrey Kurth Cronin
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Routledge
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2012
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Like all other terrorist movements, al-Qaeda will end. While it has traits that exploit and reflect the current international context, it is not utterly without precedent: some aspects of al-Qaeda are unusual, but many are not. Terrorist groups end according to recognisable patterns that have persisted for centuries, and they reflect, among other factors, the counter-terrorist policies taken against them. It makes sense to formulate those policies with a specific image of an end in mind.

Understanding how terrorism ends is the best way to avoid being manipulated by the tactic. There is vast historical experience with the decline and ending of terrorist campaigns, yet few policymakers are familiar with it. This paper first explains five typical strategies of terrorism and why Western thinkers fail to grasp them. It then describes historical patterns in ending terrorism to suggest how insights from that history can lay a foundation for more effective counter-strategies. Finally, it extracts policy prescriptions specifically relevant to ending the campaign of al-Qaeda and its associates, moving towards a post-al-Qaeda world.

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ENDING TERRORISM

Lessons for defeating al-Qaeda

AUDREY KURTH CRONIN

ADELPHI PAPER 394

The International Institute for Strategic Studies

ADELPHI PAPER 394

First published April 2008 by Routledge

2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN

for The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Arundel House, 1315 Arundel Street, Temple Place, London, WC2R 3DX, UK

www.iiss.org

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge

711 Third Avenue., New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an Informa Business

2008 The International Institute for Strategic Studies

DIRECTOR-GENERAL AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE John Chipman

EDITOR Tim Huxley

MANAGER FOR EDITORIAL SERVICES Ayse Abdullah

COPY EDITOR Matthew Foley

ASSISTANT EDITOR Katharine Fletcher

PRODUCTION John Buck

COVER IMAGE Getty

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

ISBN 978-0-415-45062-1

ISSN 0567-932X

Contents

Glossary

ANC	African National Congress
EIJ	Egyptian al-Jihad
EPL	Popular Liberation Army (Colombia)
ETA	Basque Fatherland and Freedom
FARC	Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
FLN	National Liberation Front (Algeria)
FLQ	Front de libration du Qubec
FPMR-D	Manuel Rodriquez Patriotic Front Dissidents (Chile)
GAI	Egyptian al-Gamaa al-Islamiyya
GIA	Armed Islamic Group (Algeria)
IRA	Irish Republican Army
LTTE	Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (Sri Lanka)
M-19	April 19 Movement (Colombia)
MILF	Moro Islamic Liberation Front (Philippines)
MIPT	Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
MK	Umkhonto (military wing of the ANC)
NPA	New Peoples Army (Philippines)
PKK	Kurdistan Workers Party
PLO	Palestine Liberation Organisation
SA	Sturm-Abteilung
UDA	Ulster Defence Association
UVF	Ulster Volunteer Force
WMD	weapons of mass destruction

Introduction

Focusing on how terrorism ends is the best way to avoid being manipulated by it. Terrorism has been most effective as a strategy of leverage that draws its power from state action, and when democratic governments acquiesce to it, it is almost impossible to win. The ideal way to avoid this trap is to understand how terrorist campaigns have actually ended, and then drive towards that goal. There is vast historical experience with the decline and ending of terrorist campaigns over the past two centuries, yet few policymakers are familiar with it. Instead, officials tend to respond (very humanly) to popular passions and anxiety in the aftermath of attacks, resulting in policy made primarily on tactical grounds, undermining their long-term interests. Fear is exactly what terrorism is designed to exploit. When leaders make decisions primarily on the basis of fear they are perpetuating the natural dynamic of terrorism.

All terrorist campaigns end. One way to nudge terrorist organisations towards their demise is to understand the closing phases of other organisations, carefully cull those experiences that apply to the current threat from those that do not, and act according to the lessons of relevant experience. While studying the history of terrorism is not sufficient to explain the threat the world now faces, it is necessary if we are to extricate ourselves from the counterproductive policies and narrow doctrinal disputes that are absorbing all of our energies.

Strategy is the art of distributing and applying military means to fulfil the ends of policy, yet thinking about the current struggle as a long war Likewise, the best way to meet the current threat is to look beyond the international terrorist campaign inspired by al-Qaeda, beyond the military strategy the West has devised to answer it, towards a broader vision of how it will end.

A universal strategy for ending terrorism is by definition impossible. Previous attempts to devise one have tended to focus on singular means, such as brute force or capitulation, arising out of assumptions about the ideological causes that groups pursue. But the long-term threat to security posed by groups that use extreme violence, such as the al-Qaeda network, demands creative responses. While there is no substitute for local knowledge and detailed expertise about specific organisations and cultures, failing to work across the seams of historical experience promotes parochialism and denies policymakers the cross-cutting concepts they need for countering terrorism.

We are learning to our peril that understanding war termination is at least as important as dissecting the causes of war. Likewise, processes of ending for terrorist groups hold within them the best insights into which strategies succeed and which fail, and why. Appreciating how terrorist campaigns actually end offers the chance to remove ourselves from the strategic myopia that currently grips much of Western counter-terrorism efforts.

There is much to be learned by studying the closing phases of other terrorist campaigns, and extracting common experiences and policy lessons from predecessors. Yet the wealth of historical experience with terrorisms termination is largely untapped. This Adelphi Paper posits five typical strategies of terrorism, and explains the particular challenges democracies face in responding to them.as in countless antecedents, understanding how terrorism ends is the best route to a broader view of the campaign, and to thinking that goes beyond the shorter-term strategies of terrorism.

Chapter One

The Strategies of Terrorism

Terrorisms strategic logic is to draw enough power from the nation-state so as to enable a weaker, non-state actor to accomplish its political aim. Yet that is not to say that state governments necessarily determine the success or failure of terrorist campaigns. There are a number of direct and indirect ways for non-state actors to derive power from the state, and some of them do not directly engage with the government at all. In fact, study of the closing phases of terrorist groups non-state entities that rely on violence against non-combatants demonstrates that, in some circumstances, factors internal to these groups are most salient. Policymakers often try to understand what works against terrorism by studying the counter-terrorist campaigns of states, but this is only part of the equation. The history of terrorism reveals that the reasons for a groups demise may have little to do with the measures taken against it.

The strategies of terrorism are best approached by examining the intersection between objective, target and audience, taking care not to omit any of these factors. More specifically, the three dimensions of study comprise the overall political aims of a group, the nature of the direct state target of that groups attacks and the character of the audiences influenced by the violence. Distinguishing among these three elements is not as simple as it appears, however, as their relative weight varies and each may contain multiple layers and complexities. Their composition is determined by the political, social and historical context from which a terrorist group springs, and is as unique as the group itself. Thus, generalisations about the strategies of terrorism, like those for more conventional types of conflict, are inherently suspect and subject to exceptions. As in war, there is no substitute for detailed research into the nature and character of individual adversaries. Nonetheless, terrorisms triad is equally vital to sound analysis.

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