Shahram Chubin - Wither Iran?: Reform, Domestic Politics and National Security

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Shahram Chubin

Whither Iran?

Reform, Domestic Politics and National Security

Adelphi Paper 342

First published 2002 by Oxford University Press

Published 2014 by Routledge

2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge

711 Third Avenue, New York, NY, 10017, USA

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

2002 The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Director John Chipman

Editor Mats R. Berdal

Assistant Editor John Wheelwright

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data

ISBN 13: 978-0-198-51667-5 (pbk)

Publishers Note

The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint but points out that some imperfections inthe original may be apparent.

Contents

AFP	Agence France Presse
BBC	British Broadcasting Corporation
BWC	Biological Weapons Convention
CIA	Central Intelligence Agency
CNN	Cable News Network
CWC	Chemical Weapons Convention
EU	European Union
FBIS-NES	Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Near East Service (US government agency)
GCC	Gulf Co-operation Council
IAEA	International Atomic Energy Agency
IRGC	Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (or Pasdaran)
IRI	Islamic Republic of Iran (name used since 1979)
IRNA	Islamic Republic News Agency
MENA	Middle East News Agency
MKOI	Mujahiddin-e Khalq Organisation (Islamic) (Iranian opposition force hosted by Iraq)
MTCR	Missile Technology Control Regime
NATO	North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
NGO	Non-Governmental Organisation
NPT	Non-Proliferation Treaty
NWS	Nuclear-Weapons State(s)
OIC	Organisation for the Islamic Conference
PKK	Kurdistan Workers Party
SAM	Surface-to-Air Missile
SCIRI	Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Iraqi opposition force hosted by Iran)
SNSC	Supreme National Security Council
SPA	Saudi Press Agency
TMD	Theatre Missile Defence
UN	United Nations
UNMOVIC	United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission
UNSCOM	United Nations Special Commission
WMD	Weapons of Mass Destruction
Terms
Ayatollah	(literally, sign of God) Senior clerical rank in Shia Islam. (Grand Ayatollah is more senior still.)
Basij	Volunteer militia, organised as a form of territorial guard, subordinate to the IRGC
fatwa	Religious edict issued by senior clerics which, in theory, can only be rescinded by them
Hezbollah	(literally, party of God) Name adopted by various paramilitary groups that grew out of the 1979 Revolution and answer to various Iranian power centres or individuals. The Lebanese Hezbollah is both a Shii political party and a resistance organisation, and has been inspired and funded by Iran
Hojjatoleslam	(literally, proof of Islam) Shii clerical rank immediately below Ayatollah; can be acquired after some 1520 years of study

FALLAHIAN, Ali Member of the Assembly of Experts, former Minister of Information (Intelligence and Security) 198997; Vice Minister 198489. Considered a hard-liner.

JANNATI, Ahmad (Ayatollah) Secretary of the Council of Guardians; member of the Assembly of Experts since 1980. Member of Expediency Council. A hard-liner.

KHAMENEI, Sayyed Ali (Ayatollah) Supreme Leader of the Revolution (rahbar) from June 1989; Jurisprudent Ruler of the IRI; Commander-in-Chief of Armed Forces; president of IRI from 198189; Commander of the IRGC; member of the Supreme Defence Council. Moderate conservative?

KHARRAZI, Kamal Foreign Minister since 1997; ambassador to the UN from 198997; member of the Supreme Council for Defence from 198089 (formed for coordination and planning during the IranIraq war). A reformist.

KHATAMI, Mohammad (Hojjatoleslam) President since 1997; Director of the National Library from 199297; former minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance in the cabinets of President Rafsanjani and Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi, from 198192. Moderate reformist.

MOHAJERANI, Ataollah Head of the Center for Dialogue of Civilisations; former minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance from 19972000 (forced to resign); Vice President between 198997. A reformist.

MOHTASHEMIPOUR, Ali Akbar Member of the 6th Majlis for Tehran and member of the 3rd Majlis from 198892; minister of interior from 19859; ambassador to Syria from 198185. A key supporter of Hezbollah in 1980. An Islamic leftist, now a reformist in domestic politics, who is one of the few who continues to support the violent export of the revolution.

MONTAZERI, Hossein Ali (Grand Ayatollah) (source of emulation, highest level of Shiite theological scholarship) Under house arrest; designated successor to Ayatollah Khomeini from 198589, dismissed from leadership 1989. Opposed to the concept of a rahbar, and hence a reformist on this issue.

NOURI, Abdollah Hosseinabadi Prominent reformer jailed by the Special Clerical Court in December 1999 for advocating reforms considered dangerous by the conservatives. Vice President from 199799; editor of the reformist newspaper Khordad; member of Expediency Council; President Rafsanjanis appointee as chairman of the Supreme National Security Council; representative of Ayatollah Khomeini to the IRGC; Interior Minister.

RAFSANJANI, Akbar Hashemi Bahramani (Ayatollah)

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