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Energy Demand and Economic Growth

About the Book and Author

Dr. Siddayao examines the measurement and conceptual issues that complicate analytical work in the energy demand field. Successful policy decisions depend on the use of appropriate data and analytic methods; because the demand side of the energy-economy interaction is highly complex, this study focuses on the more basic economic and energy concepts and methods in demand analyses. Dr. Siddayao critiques measures used to analyze the relationship of energy to economic growth and summarizes the various demand estimation methods and their results. Highlighting the problems faced by analysts in developing countries who often have limited time and inadequate data, she discusses the serious implications of basing policy decisions on questionable analytic methods and data.

Corazn Morales Siddayao is research coordinator and leader of the Energy and Industrialization Project at the East-West Center and is affiliate professor of economics at the University of Hawaii.

Energy Demand and Economic Growth

Measurement and Conceptual Issues in Policy Analysis

Corazn Morales Siddayao

First published 1986 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2021 by Routledge 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1986 by Taylor & Francis

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Siddayao, Corazn M. Energy demand and economic growth. Bibliography: p. Includes index. 1. Energy consumptionDeveloping countries. 2. Energy policyDeveloping countries. 3. Developing countriesEconomic policy. 4. Economic development. I. Title. HD9502.D4422S54 1986 333.79'13'091724 86-906 ISBN 0-8133-7154-6

ISBN 13: 978-0-3670-0870-3 (hbk) ISBN 13: 978-0-3671-5857-6 (pbk)

DOI: 10.4324/9780429038563

A.M.D.G.

Contents

1. 1 Understanding the Concept of Energy
   1. Defining Energy
   2. The Boundary Problem
   3. Implications of Energy Measurement Issues
   4. Notes
   5. Appendix 1.1: Understanding Energy Units
2. 2 Understanding the Demand for Energy
   1. The Demand for Energy
   2. Energy Demand and Economic Growth
   3. Use by Economic Sector
   4. Structure of Industries and Demand for Energy
   5. Other Variables
   6. Notes
   7. Appendix 2.1: A Digression on the Concept of Demand
3. 3 The Energy/GDP Ratio as a Measure of Energy Demand: Shortcomings
   1. The GDP as a Ratio
   2. The Energy/GDP Concept: Critical Issues
   3. Notes
4. 4 Estimation Problems: Income and Price Elasticities of Energy
   1. Structural Influences on Energy Elasticities
   2. Energy/GDP Relationship Estimation Models: Single Equation Estimates
   3. Structural Analysis: Two-stage and Other Approaches
   4. Notes
   5. Appendix 4.1: Data Approach for Tables 4.1, 4.2, and 4.4
5. 5 Estimation Problems: The Complementarity/Substitution Issue
   1. Some Early Industrial Studies and Associated Issues: Country Studies
   2. Studies of Industrial Input Relationships in Selected Asian Developing Countries
   3. Some Methodological Issues
   4. Notes
   5. Appendix 5.1: Data Approach for Tables 4.7, 5.1, and 5.2
6. Conclusion

1. 1 Understanding the Concept of Energy
   1. Defining Energy
   2. The Boundary Problem
   3. Implications of Energy Measurement Issues
   4. Notes
   5. Appendix 1.1: Understanding Energy Units
2. 2 Understanding the Demand for Energy
   1. The Demand for Energy
   2. Energy Demand and Economic Growth
   3. Use by Economic Sector
   4. Structure of Industries and Demand for Energy
   5. Other Variables
   6. Notes
   7. Appendix 2.1: A Digression on the Concept of Demand
3. 3 The Energy/GDP Ratio as a Measure of Energy Demand: Shortcomings
   1. The GDP as a Ratio
   2. The Energy/GDP Concept: Critical Issues
   3. Notes
4. 4 Estimation Problems: Income and Price Elasticities of Energy
   1. Structural Influences on Energy Elasticities
   2. Energy/GDP Relationship Estimation Models: Single Equation Estimates
   3. Structural Analysis: Two-stage and Other Approaches
   4. Notes
   5. Appendix 4.1: Data Approach for Tables 4.1, 4.2, and 4.4
5. 5 Estimation Problems: The Complementarity/Substitution Issue
   1. Some Early Industrial Studies and Associated Issues: Country Studies
   2. Studies of Industrial Input Relationships in Selected Asian Developing Countries
   3. Some Methodological Issues
   4. Notes
   5. Appendix 5.1: Data Approach for Tables 4.7, 5.1, and 5.2
6. Conclusion

1. ii
2. iii

Guide

Tables and Figures

Tables

1. 1.1 Categories of fuel in use
2. 1.2 Index of embodied energy intensities for selected sectors, United States, 1967
3. 1.3 Efficiencies of different fuels
4. A.1 Standard energy conversions
5. 2.1 Energy intensity in production and consumption in selected Asian LDCs, 1969-1971
6. 3.1 Commercial energy/GDP ratios in selected Asian developing countries
7. 3.2 Gross domestic product in national currencies in U.S. dollars at official exchange rates and in international dollars, 1970 and 1973
8. 3.3 Per caput gross domestic product in national currencies, in U.S. dollars at official exchange rates and in international dollars, 1970 and 1973
9. 3.4 Indices of real gross domestic product per caput in selected Asian LDCs
10. 4.1 Elasticity estimates of commercial energy demand (pooled) in selected Asian developing countries
11. 4.2 Selected Asian developing countries: Elasticity estimates of commercial energy demand (individual)
12. 4.3 Per caput elasticities with respect to GDP, by income-ranked country subgroups, as directly measured from respective growth rates
13. 4.4 Structural analysis of energy demand in selected Asian Pacific LDCspreliminary results
14. 4.5 ESCAP annual price elasticity estimates for energy consumption per caput
15. 4.6 Own-price elasticities: Indian manufacturing
16. 4.7 Elasticities of demand for manufacturing inputs: The Philippines, Thailand, and Bangladesh
17. 5.1 Allen partial elasticities for developing countries: India and Korea
18. 5.2 Selected Allen and cross-price elasticities of substitution: The Philippines, Thailand, and Bangladesh
19. 5.3 Comparison of translog results: Full elasticity of substitution

Figures

1. 1.1 National output per caput versus energy consumption per caput for selected countries, 1972
2. 2.1 The flow of sociodemographic influences on energy demand

Preface

The target audience for this monograph is multidisciplinary, policy-oriented scholars and analysts rather than specialists. The presentation includes some discussions of the state of the art, but many of the issues raised are original. The title of this study is similar to that of several other studies already published. The contents, however, are not the same. Whereas some of the studies on the subject are either heavily econometric or data intensive in presentation, the present study is basically oriented toward issues. It approaches the subject from the perspective of energy analysts in developing countries faced with limited access and time, yet interested in a quick reference for determining which specific and more detailed source they must consult in pursuing their work. It is also intended for the advanced student who needs a summary reference on this subject.

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