Christian P. Potholm - Maine: The Dynamics of Political Change

J ust when supporters of Senator Susan Collins were resting easy thinking that her opponent in the general election of 2002 would be the very liberal Chellie Pingree, along comes the news that there will be another candidate in the Democratic primary.

Robert Bob Dunfey, long time Democratic activist and fundraiser and heir to one of Maines most prominent Democratic families, is off and running. As a former businessman and considerably more moderate in his issue profile, Dunfey would be a far more serious challenge to the junior senator as he brings centrist positions on issues such as gun control and small business.

Moreover, he has already brought together a most formidable campaign team, one with national credentials, one able to go toe-to-toe with the professionals of the Pingree effort. His pollster is the well-known Tom Keily from Boston, the national Democratic pollster with the most experience in Maine.

Dunfeys campaign manager is the talented Joshua Bouvair of Main Street Strategies who brings a good deal of grass roots and direct mail experience and whose association with Winning Directions brings the Dunfey campaign considerable intellectual and campaign resources at the national level. This grass roots activism on the part of Dunfey will have to be countered vigorously by the Pingree forces who will need to engage the extremely successful Joe Cowie to organize her grassroots and local get out the vote effort. Cowie is often behind the scenes in many successful local, state and national efforts.

Perhaps even more significant is Dunfeys choice of media firms. Hank Sheinkopf has a national reputation having done media work for Clinton/ Gore in 1996. Insiders feel confident that Sheinkopf is not coming to Maine to play patty-cake politics and would not be coming at all unless he believed he had a good chance to be part of a winning team. If Sheinkopf can work some electronic magic, six months from now, Congressmen Baldacci and Allen may want to reevaluate their premature support of Pingree.

Not that Pingree will roll over and play dead. She has her own strong team of consultants led by Will Robinson. Will Robinson, of McWilliams, Cosgrove and Robinson, will duel Sheinkopf on behalf of Pingree. Robinson was the media savant whose grainy and realistic images earned Gay Rights supporters their firstand onlystatewide victory in Maine during the 1995 election cycle. His Lobster Boy commercial won that battle and remains a classic of a powerful, mind changer commercial. Robinson is a force to be reckoned with as well and his presence clearly points up just how the Democratic senatorial primary in 2002 will be a battle of heavy weights.

Given Pingrees $300,000 war chest and the considerable fundraising talents of Anna Lidman (who was a big factor in the successful Turnpike Widening referendum of 1996, raising over $800,000 for that endeavor), Dunfey will have to bring considerable personal and national financial support to make this a race. It is said he will have a considerable war chest and the support of the Kennedy family, especially Patrick Kennedy. Dunfeys father was head of the Maine effort for John F. Kennedy in 1960, so these ties are of long standing.

Best of all to my way of thinking, Dunfey has never run for political officemajor or otherwise. To many, that may seem a negative. But to me, it is a positive. Since there is a right way, a wrong way, a candidates way and a consultants way (and they are seldom synonymous!), I have always preferred candidates with less electoral experience, not more. Certainly, when it comes to high electoral office, experience is vastly overrated. Bill Cohen was mayor of Bangor and a member of the city council but had never run outside his home city and Angus King had never run for public office, to give but the most prominent examples.