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Stephen G. Walker - Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis: States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations

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Stephen G. Walker Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis: States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations
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Stephen G. Walker, Akan Malici, and Mark Schafer present a definitive, social-psychological approach to integrating theories of foreign policy analysis and international relationsaddressing the agent-centered, micro-political study of decisions by leaders and the structure-oriented, macro-political study of state interactions as a complex adaptive system. The links between the internal world of beliefs and the external world of events provide the strategic setting in which states collide and leaders decide.

The first part of this ground-breaking book establishes the theoretical framework of neobehavioral IR, setting the stage for the remainder of the work to apply the framework to pressing issues in world politics. Through these applications students can see how a game-theoretic logic can combine with the operational code research program to innovatively combine levels of analysis. The authors employ binary role theory to demonstrate that relying only on a state-systemic level or an individual-decision making level of analysis leads to an incomplete picture of how leaders steer their ships of state through the hazards of international crises to establish stable relations of cooperation or conflict.

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RETHINKING FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS

Stephen G. Walker, Akan Malici, and Mark Schafer present a definitive, social-psychological approach to integrating theories of foreign policy analysis and international relationsaddressing the agent-centered, micro-political study of decisions by leaders and the structure-oriented, macro-political study of state interactions as a complex adaptive system. The links between the internal world of beliefs and the external world of events provide the strategic setting in which states collide and leaders decide.

The first part of this ground-breaking book establishes the theoretical framework of neobehavioral IR, setting the stage for the remainder of the work to apply the framework to pressing issues in world politics. Through these applications students can see how a game-theoretic logic can combine with the operational code research program to innovatively combine levels of analysis. The authors employ binary role theory to demonstrate that relying only on a state-systemic level or an individual-decision making level of analysis leads to an incomplete picture of how leaders steer their ships of state through the hazards of international crises to establish stable relations of cooperation or conflict.

Stephen G. Walker is Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Arizona State University. He has edited Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis and co-edited Beliefs and Political Leadership in World Politics.

Akan Malici is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Furman University. He is the author of When Leaders Learn and When They Dont and The Search for a Common European Foreign and Security Policy.

Mark Schafer is Professor of Political Science at Louisiana State University. He has co-edited Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics and co-authored Groupthink versus High-Quality Decision Making.

RETHINKING FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS

States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations

Edited by Stephen G. Walker, Akan Malici, and Mark Schafer

First published 2011 by Routledge 270 Madison Avenue New York NY 10016 - photo 1

First published 2011
by Routledge
270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016

Simultaneously published in the UK
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2011.


To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledges collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.

2011 Taylor & Francis

The right of Stephen G. Walker, Akan Malici, and Mark Schafer to be identified as the authors of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Rethinking foreign policy analysis: states, leaders, and the microfoundations of behavioral international relations/ [edited by] Stephen G. Walker, Akan Malici, and Mark Schafer.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. International relationsDecision making. 2. International relationsPsychological aspects. I. Walker, Stephen G., 1942-II. Malici, Akan, 1974-III. Schafer, Mark, 1962
JZ1253.R48 2011
327.101'4dc22
2010028853

ISBN 0-203-83486-0 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 13: 9780415886970 (hbk)

ISBN 13: 9780415886987 (pbk)

ISBN 13: 9780-203834862 (ebk)

CONTENTS


Stephen G. Walker


Stephen G. Walker


Stephen G. Walker


Stephen G. Walker


Akan Malici


Kai He and Huiyun Feng


Mark Schafer, Jonathon Nunley, and Scott Crichlow


Akan Malici


Akan Malici


Jonathan Renshon


Samuel B. Robison


B. Gregory Marfleet and Hannah Simpson


Stephen G. Walker and Mark Schafer


Stephen G. Walker


Stephen G. Walker


Stephen G. Walker

FIGURES

1.1

Two Systems in World Politics.

2.1

Behavioral and Billiard Ball Models of International Relations.

2.2

A Static Political Field Diagram of International Relations.

2.3

A Dynamic Political Field of Escalation () and De-escalation (+).

2.4

Connections between the World in Their Minds and the World of Events.

2.5

Extensions of Power Logic from Dyads to Triads.

2.6

Mapping Two-Player Games in a Political Field Diagram.

2.7

Two-Player Games for the ABC Triad.

3.1

A Hierarchical Power Landscape of the Grand Power Game in the IR Field.

3.2

Egos Role Enactment Predicted by Exchange Theory and Role Theory.

3.3

Contents of the Revised Holsti Operational Code Typology.

3.4

Constructing a Political Belief System Typology.

3.5

Drawing Inferences about Preferences.

4.1

Basic Research Designs for Understanding Foreign Policy Analysis.

4.2

Hierarchical Landscape Features in the Worlds of Beliefs and Events.

4.3

A Strategic Interaction Episode during the Vietnam Conflict.

4.4

Barack Obamas VICS Indices and Subjective Games.

4.5

Obamas Operational Code Beliefs and Types of Leadership Styles.

5.1

Kim Jong Ils and Fidel Castros Subjective Game.

5.2

Ahmadinejads and al-Asads Subjective Game.

6.1

North Koreas Strategies, Payoffs, and Outcomes.

8.1

Inter-State Comparisons of Beliefs for France and Britain.

8.2

Subjective Games of France and Britain in Operation Enduring Freedom.

8.3

Subjective Games of France and Britain in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

9.1

Real GNP/GDP Growth Rates, 19851994.

12.1

Probability of Belief Change.

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