Jamil Mubarak - From Bad Policy to Chaos in Somalia: How an Economy Fell Apart

Tables and Figures

ix

Preface

xi

Abbreviations

xiii

Introduction

Economics and Politics in Somalia: A Background

Improper Policy Responses to Exogenous Shocks

The Socialist Development Strategy of the 1970s: The Principal Origin of the Crises

Macroeconomic Consequences of Unsustainable Public Sector Deficits

Ambitious Public Investment and Illusive Economic Growth Objective

Private Savings and Investment in an Inhospitable Environment

The Depressing Effects of Economic Policies on Trade

Resilience Amid Chaos: The Somali Economy After the State Collapsed

How the Economy Fell Apart and What We Have Learned

Selected Bibliography

Index

1.1

Basic Macroeconomic Indicators of Somalia and Sub-Saharan Africa, 1970, 1980, and 1990

3.1

Public Expenditures on Agriculture, 197088

3.2

Effects of First Oil Shock and Policy Responses on Trade, 197279

3.3

Effects of Second Oil Shock and Policy Responses on Trade, 198083

4.1

National Trading Corporation (ENC) Subsidies for Basic Food, 1974

4.2

The Manufacturing Sector: Percent Share of Public Enterprises, 197082

4.3

Interest Rates and Domestic Credit, 197089

4.4

Real Wages, Selected Years, 197389

5.1

Percent Composition of Ordinary Budget Expenditure, 197088

5.2

Parameters for the Short-Run and the Long-Run Demand for Money

5.3

Money and Prices, 196988

6.1

Size of the Public Investment Program (PIP), Technical Assistance (TA), and Development Expenditure Budget (DB), 197289

6.2

Sectoral Shares of Executed PIP, 197589

7.1

Savings and Investment, 197089

8.1

Merchandise Trade, Value, and Growth Rates, 197188

10.1

Major Economic Indicators, 197089

1.1

Per Capita GNP, Somalia and Sub-Saharan Africa, 197191

3.1

Livestock Stock Change and Gross Domestic Product, 197789

3.2

Effects of Drought on Prices, Consumer Price Indices, 197189

3.3

Cereal Food Aid as Percent of Cereal and Food Consumption, 197084

3.4

Arms Imports, 197188

3.5

Ordinary Defense Expenditure, 197188

3.6

Major Somali Clan Families

4.1

Agricultural Development Corporation, Real Purchase Price of Major Staples, 197079

4.2

Production Indices of Selected Agricultural Commodities, 197380

4.3

Capacity Utilization of Public Industries, Selected Years, 197787

4.4

The Manufacturing Sector: Value-Added, 197089

4.5

Central Government Employment, Selected Years, 196989

4.6

Ratio of Parallel Market to Official Exchange Rates and the Level of International Reserves, 197789