Kel Butcher
First published in 2013 by Wrightbooks
an imprint of John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd
42 McDougall St, Milton Qld 4064
Ofce also in Melbourne
Typeset in 11.5/13.4 pt Berkeley
Trading Wisdom Pty Ltd 2013
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication data:
Author:Butcher, Kel.
Title:Futures made simple : a beginners guide to futures trading for success / Kel Butcher
ISBN:9780730376835 (pbk.)
Notes:Includes index.
Subjects:Futures.
Dewey Number:332.45
All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the Australian Copyright Act 1968 (for example, a fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review), no part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, communicated or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission. All inquiries should be made to the publisher at the address above.
Cover design and images by Peter Reardon, pipelinedesign.com.au
Printed in China by Printplus Limited
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Disclaimer
The material in this publication is of the nature of general comment only, and does not represent professional advice. It is not intended to provide specific guidance for particular circumstances and it should not be relied on as the basis for any decision to take action or not take action on any matter which it covers. Readers should obtain professional advice where appropriate, before making any such decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the author and publisher disclaim all responsibility and liability to any person, arising directly or indirectly from any person taking or not taking action based on the information in this publication.
The future is no more uncertain than the present.
Walt Whitman
Standard education brings standard results self-education brings outstanding results.
Jim Rohn
About the author
Kel Butcher is a private trader, entrepreneur and investor with more than 20 years experience in financial markets, trading shares, futures, options, warrants, CFDs and forex. As well as trading his own funds, Kel is consultant to a managed fund, a boutique trading company and a share-trading software developer. He is a regular contributor to YourTradingEdge magazine and is the author of three other books: Forex Made Simple: a beginners guide to foreign exchange success , A Step-by-Step Guide to Buying and Selling Shares Online and 20 Most Common Trading Mistakes and How You Can Avoid Them . He also featured in The Wiley Trading Guide and Give Your Trading the Edge .
Passionate about money management, risk management and position-sizing techniques, Kel acts as a mentor and coach to fellow traders. He can be contacted by email at kel@tradingwisdom.com.au.
When hes not trading, Kel enjoys snowboarding, mountain-bike riding and surfing. He lives on the NSW Central Coast with his wife Cate and his two sons Jesse and Ollie.
Acknowledgements
My thanks as always go to the staff at Wrightbooks for all their help and support in getting this book from concept to print. I would also like to thank Glen Larson and staff at Genesis Financial Technologies for the use of the Trade Navigator software program and for most of the charts reproduced throughout the book; my futures broker Jason Achijian for his advice, knowledge and input; and the guys at Beyond Charts for the use of Beyond Charts Plus software and for the ASX share price charts used in this book. Thanks also to Larry Williams for his foreword and for sharing information over the years. I am always honoured by the opportunity to write a book and could not do it without the support of my wife Cate and my boys Jesse and Ollie, who tolerate the long periods of time I am locked away, immersed in piles of paper, typing furiously to meet yet another deadline. I also appreciate the input and shared experiences of the hundreds of traders and other market participants with whom I have spoken and corresponded over many years.
Foreword
I first met Kel at one of my Million Dollar Challenge workshops in Sydney, Australia in 2002. Since then he has become a successful trader, author and educator in his own right. He has developed his own unique trading style and techniques, many derived from the information and mentoring I have been able to provide him over the years.
Launching into any new business venture or activity in life involves a learning process one that begins with building a solid foundation onto which the rest of the business structure is then built. So it is in the world of trading. To become an overnight success requires years of hard work and dedication built on a solid foundation. Too often these days, people are drawn to the markets with the promises of huge riches and overnight success for less than a few hours work each day. Ill vouch for the fact that this isnt the case. Those that achieve success begin with a solid base and spend considerable time developing and refining their trading skills.
This introductory guide is just such a foundation. It provides almost all the information any trader, either new to the markets or just new to the futures markets, will need to get started on the journey to successful futures trading. It is a comprehensive resource that covers everything from the drivers of the price of corn, and the machinations of the bond markets, to the ever-important topic of money management, and a mass of information in between.
This is the book I wish I had written it presents a concise history of this business and an understanding of how it continues on a day-to-day basis. This is a must-read starting point for all futures traders.
Larry Williams
Commodity trader and author
August, 2012
Preface
Sydney, Australia, 18 May 2022.
As private futures trader Margaret Anderson sits down at her home office desk to begin her daily trading routine, she pauses to reflect on the price movements the market has experienced over the past few years. Triggered by increased demand for raw materials from China and for food to feed a growing world population, prices have been in a steady upward trend, providing a wealth of opportunities to participate in a great generational bull market. With persistent drought in the Southern Hemisphere, prices for corn, wheat, soybeans and other agricultural commodities have risen sharply. Base metal prices have also continued to climb, driven by production demand and the ever-present fear of inflation. Margaret notes the steady decline in the price for crude oil and other energy commodities following the development of alternative energy sources that allow todays cars to run on hydrogen derived from water, and houses and businesses to meet all their energy requirements from a combination of wind and solar energy sources. Equities and equity indexes continue to amble along, stuck in a five-year trading range that has had a devastating impact on trend traders, while short-term traders have been able to profit from trading the swings from high to low in this trading range
Or maybe not. Heres an alternative scenario: the severe global recession that took hold in 2012 and continues in 2022 has reduced the global economy to a shadow of its former self. Demand for consumer products has been wiped out by massively high interest rates, soaring unemployment, and a general feeling of doom and gloom. As a result, demand for base metals and other manufacturing raw materials has plummeted, sending prices down the slippery slope of a bear market. Oil prices have skyrocketed as demand continues to outstrip supply, and alternative energy sources such as wind and solar have proven too difficult and costly to harness on a commercial scale. The use of genetically modified crops has increased global food production of staples such as corn and wheat, so the prices for these commodities has fallen substantially. Equity markets have been in a long-term downtrend for years, providing rich opportunities to trade the short side of the market but giving little joy to the buy-and-hold investors, who have seen their portfolios decimated. The one shining light has been gold: still seen as the only true store of value on the planet, it has risen to over $4000 per ounce