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Eden Amnon H. - Singularity Hypotheses: a Scientific and Philosophical Assessment

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Singularity Hypotheses: a Scientific and Philosophical Assessment
Author:
Eden Amnon H / Moor James H / Soraker Johnny H / Steinhart Eric
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Springer
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Books / Romance novel
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2013
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Berlin;Heidelberg
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Amnon H. Eden , James H. Moor , Johnny H. Sraker and Eric Steinhart (eds.) The Frontiers Collection Singularity Hypotheses 2012 A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment 10.1007/978-3-642-32560-1_1 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

1. Singularity Hypotheses: An Overview

Introduction to: Singularity Hypotheses: A Scientific and Philosophical Assessment

Amnon H. Eden 1

(1)

School of Computer Science and, Electronic Engineering, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK

(2)

Department of Philosophy, William Paterson University, 300 Pompton Road, Wayne, NJ 07470, USA

(3)

knightsbridge Online, 7 Lower Rock Gardens, Brighton, USA

(4)

Department of Philosophy, Dartmouth College, 6035 Thornton, Hanover, NH 03755, USA

Amnon H. Eden (Corresponding author)

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Eric Steinhart

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David Pearce

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James H. Moor

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Abstract

Bill Joy in a widely read but controversial article claimed that the most powerful 21st century technologies are threatening to make humans an endangered species. Indeed, a growing number of scientists, philosophers and forecasters insist that the accelerating progress in disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotechnology may lead to what they refer to as the technological singularity : an event or phase that will radically change human civilization, and perhaps even human nature itself, before the middle of the 21st century.

Questions

Bill Joy in a widely read but controversial article claimed that the most powerful 21st century technologies are threatening to make humans an endangered species (Joy ).

Singularity hypotheses refer to either one of two distinct and very different scenarios. The first (Vinge ) observed, at some stage therefore we should have to expect the machines to take control, in the way that is mentioned in Samuel Butlers Erewhon : the consequences of such greater-than-human intelligence will be profound, and conceivably dire for humanity as we know it. Essays in Part II of this volume are concerned with this scenario.

A radically different scenario is explored by transhumanists who expect progress in enhancement technologies, most notably the amplification of human cognitive capabilities, to lead to the emergence of a posthuman race. Posthumans will overcome all existing human limitations, both physical and mental, and conquer aging, death and disease (Kurzweil ).

Advocates of the technological singularity have developed a powerful inductive Argument from Acceleration in favour of their hypothesis. The argument is based on the extrapolation of trend curves in computing technology and econometrics (Moore , p. 9).

Critics of the technological singularity dismiss these claims as speculative and empirically unsound, if not pseudo-scientific (Horgan ).

Mocked as the rapture of the nerds, many critics take (3) to be yet another apocalyptic fantasy, a technocratic variation on the usual theme of doom-and-gloom fuelled by mysticism, science fiction and even greed. Some conclude that the singularity is a religious notion, not a scientific one (Horgan ; Proudfoot this volume; Bringsjord et al. this volume). Other critics (Chaisson this volume) accept acceleration as an underlying law of nature but claim that, in perspective, the significance of the claimed changes is overblown. That is, what is commonly described as the technological singularity may well materialize, with profound consequences for the human race. But on a cosmic scale, such a mid-century transition is no more significant then whatever may follow.

Existential risk or cultist fantasy? Are any of the accounts of the technological singularity credible? In other words, is the technological singularity an open problem in science?

We believe that before any interpretation of the singularity hypothesis can be taken on board by the scientific community, rigorous tools of scientific enquiry must be employed to reformulate it as a coherent and falsifiable conjecture.To this end, we challenged economists, computer scientists, biologists, mathematicians, philosophers and futurists to articulate their concepts of the singularity. The questions we posed were as follows:

What is the [technological] singularity hypothesis? What exactly is being claimed?

What is the empirical content of this conjecture? Can it be refuted or corroborated, and if so, how?

What exactly is the nature of a singularity: Is it a discontinuity on a par with phase transition or a process on a par with Tofflers wave? Is the term singularity appropriate?

What evidence, taken for example from the history of technology and economic theories, suggest the advent of some form of singularity by 2050?

What, if anything, can be said to be accelerating? What evidence can reliably be said to support its existence? Which metrics support the idea that progress is indeed accelerating?

What are the most likely milestones (major paradigm shifts) in the countdown to a singularity?

Is the so-called Moores Law on par with the laws of thermodynamics? How about the Law of Accelerating Returns? What exactly is the nature of the change they purport to measure?

What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for an intelligence explosion (a runaway effect )? What is the actual likelihood of such an event?

What evidence support the claim that machine intelligence has been rising? Can this evidence be extrapolated reliably?

What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for machine intelligence to be considered to be on a par with that of humans? What would it take for the general educated opinion [to] have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted (Turing , p. 442)?

What does it mean to claim that biological evolution will be replaced by technological evolution? What exactly can be the expected effects of augmentation and enhancement, in particular over our cognitive abilities? To which extent can we expect our transhuman and posthuman descendants to be different from us?

What evidence support the claim that humankinds intelligence quotient has been rising (Flynn effect)? How this evidence relate to a more general claim about a rise in the intelligence of carbon-based life? Can this evidence be extrapolated reliably?

What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for a functioning whole brain emulation (WBE) of a human? At which level exactly must the brain be emulated? What will be the conscious experience of a WBE? To which extent can they be said to be human?

What may be the consequences of a singularity? What may be its effect on society, e.g. in ethics, politics, economics, warfare, medicine, culture, arts, the humanities, and religion?

Is it meaningful to refer to multiple singularities? If so, what can be learned from past such events? Is it meaningful to claim a narrow interpretation of singularity in some specific domain of activity, e.g. a singularity in chess playing, in face recognition, in car driving, etc.?

This volume contains the contributions received in response to this challenge.

Towards a Definition

Accounts of a technological singularityhenceforth the singularityappear to disagree on its causes and possible consequences, on timescale, and even on its nature: the emergence of machine intelligence or of posthumans? An event or a period? Is the technological singularity unique or have there been others? The absence of a consensus on basic questions casts doubt whether the notion of singularity is at all coherent.

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