Copyright 2018 by the Economist Newspaper Ltd, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018
Text Copyright Peter Stanyer, 2006, 2010, 2014; Peter Stanyer and Stephen Satchell, 2018
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Originally published in 2018 by Profile Books Ltd. in Great Britain. First US Edition: May 2018
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ISBNs: 978-1-61039-979-1 (paperback), 978-1-61039-987-6 (ebook)
E3-20180323-JV-NF
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WE OWE A DEBT OF GRATITUDE to many individuals who helped with this book. First and foremost to our wives, Alex and Ana, for their continued support and patience through this editions labour.
Very notably, Grant Wilder provided invaluable research assistance with this new edition.
Generous and insightful contributions on particular issues or chapters were provided by Elroy Dimson, Stephen Collins, Harold Evensky, Hugh Ferry, Masood Javaid, Tim Lund, Moira OShaughnessy, Steve Piercy, Mark Ralphs, Adrian Howe, Rory Percival, Jay Tallis and Richard Williams. We are most grateful to each of them, but any mistakes are our own.
We are also indebted to those firms whose data we have used in the numerous tables and charts. Without their support the book could not be published in this form. We would also like to thank Ed Lake at Profile Books for his encouragement, suggestions and support. Our thanks are also due to Penny Williams, who edited the previous editions, and Catherine Garson, who edited this latest editionboth were skilful and patient.
This book aims to help inform the process of seeking and giving professional advice, but it cannot be a substitute for that advice. Nothing should be interpreted as a recommendation to do or not to do anything in particular. It draws on and summarises research and investor perspectives on a wide range of issues, but it is not punctuated with footnotes citing sources for facts or opinions. Although important areas of debate are flagged with references to leading researchers, in other areas ideas which are more commonly expressed are presented but not attributed. Sources which were particularly important for each chapter are listed in Appendix 2.
Please note that the views expressed in this book are our own and may not coincide with the views of the investment funds or other bodies on whose boards or committees we are honoured to serve and advise.
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 200709 has had enormous consequences, but it has not led to major changes in the investment policies followed by institutional and private investors. One trend that has been accelerated by the crisis, and its aftermath of ultra-low interest rates, is the rapid move in various countries towards complete closure of company-sponsored salary-related pension schemes. Millions are now confronted with the challenge of building up their own pension pot to fund their retirement. Many of these, who, it is reasonable to suppose, have no particular interest in investment markets, need to be conscious of whether their savings are sufficient and on track, and sensibly invested. This new edition is deliberately tilted to address these kinds of concerns of the private investor (see on personal pensions, in particular).
Many of these concerns parallel those facing institutional funds. Since the crisis, earlier investment trends have been extended, rather than new trends emerging. There has been a growing recognition by all types of investors of the importance of globally diversified equity portfolios ().
Twenty-five years ago, both authors would have been confident that investment manager fees would have been under relentless pressure in the decades ahead. Time has so far shown such a prediction to have been only half-right. However, even the most modest investor can now find easy access to reputable low-fee strategies of equity and bond investments that might suit their needs and which are comparable to those discussed in the first part of the book. Norways oil fund (formally known as the Government Pension Fund (Global)), which is reported to be the largest fund in the world, has essentially followed such a strategy, since 1997. Warren Buffet, who has a reputation as one of the most successful professional investors, suggested in 2017 that American investors who are saving for retirement should consistently buy an S&P500 low-cost index fund I think its the thing that makes the most sense practically all of the time.
As very low interest rates have persisted, stockmarkets have seemingly become more expensive. Bond markets automatically translate low interest rates, which are expected to persist, into much higher bond prices and it is widely believed that this helps to explain the buoyancy of prices for a wide range of collectibles, from works of art to classic cars (see ).