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Graeme Donald Snooks - The Laws of History (Routledge Studies in History of Economics)

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Graeme Donald Snooks The Laws of History (Routledge Studies in History of Economics)
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This is an original and controversial reflection on the course of human history and a remarkable attempt to develop a scientific model of laws for the social sciences. It: * considers the nature of laws and the reasons we might expect to find them in history* employs an underlying framework concerning societal dynamics, historical change, and institutional change, which are in fact the laws of history. This volume consolidates the authors previous research in The Dynamic Society and The Ephemeral Civilization.

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THE LAWS OF HISTORY

Graeme Donald Snooks

London and New York

-iii-



First published 1998
by Routledge
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001

1998 Graeme Donald Snooks

The right of Graeme Donald Snooks to be identified as the Author of this Work has
been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988

Typeset in Baskerville by Routledge

Printed and bound in Great Britain by TJ International, Padstow, Cornwall

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic,
mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter
invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any
information storage or retrieval system, without permission
in writing from the publishers.

British library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data
Snooks, G.D. (Graeme Donald)
The laws of history/Graeme Donald Snooks.
1. Economic history. 2. Statics and dynamics (Social sciences).
3. Social evolution. 4. Historicism. I. Title.
HC21.S643 1998 97-51681
330.09-dc21 CIP

ISBN 0-415-19050-9

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Whatsoever things are objects of sight, hearing, and experiencethese things I hold in higher esteem.

(Heraclitus, early fifth century BC)

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[This page intentionally left blank.]

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TO LOMA GRAHAM

WHO INSPIRED THIS BOOK

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[This page intentionally left blank.]

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CONTENTS
List of illustrationsxii
Prefacexiii
1 The eternal and the ephemeral1
Can history have laws?2
The law-seekers and the laws6
PART I The law-seekers9
2 What are laws, and where can we find them?11
The historical background11
The laws of nature14
How are laws knowable?17
Laws of human society25
From the perspective of the social sciences28
Why not history?34
3 Metaphysical historicism from Hesiod to Toynbee38
In the beginning: the ancient Greeks38
From degeneration to progress: Hegel, Marx, and Spencer45
The return of degeneration: Spengler and Toynbee63
Conclusions88
4 Positive historicism from Comte to Rostow90
The positive tradition of Comte91
The existential tightrope walker: J.S. Mill96
An apostle of liberty: H.T. Buckle105
The historical school of economics114

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The last positive historicist: W.W. Rostow121
Conclusions131
5 The poverty or perversion of historicism?133
The philosophy of antihistoricism: Popper and Berlin134
The antihistoricism of the neo-Austrians: Mises and Hayek154
Conclusions168
6 If history has laws, why havent they been discovered?170
The dilemma of Heraclitus171
Focusing on the surface of civilization173
The dynamic agent as interpreter174
The conflict of methods176
A lack of preparation178
The antihistoricist campaign179
Conclusions181
PART II The laws183
7 If history has laws, how would we recognize them?185
The old historicism185
Existential historicism186
Deriving the laws of history189
The existential method and Mills proposed method of Ethology190
Conclusions191
8 The laws of societal dynamics193
The general dynamic-strategy model193
The primary laws of history199
Conclusions205
9 The laws of historical change206
The dynamic mechanisms of human history206
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