Alexander Cooper - Summary of the Fourth Turning: by William Strauss & Neil Howe--What the Cycles of History Tell Us About Americas Next Rendezvous with Destiny--A Comprehensive Summary

"Winter Comes Again,sets up the main argument of the book. The chapter claims thathistory is a cyclical repetition of "four turnings." America wouldenter the Fourth Turning in 2005. The authors offer evidence toshow that certain events and moods repeat themselves. Based on thatevidence, the chapter predicts that the future of America wouldsoon enter the chaos of the Fourth Turning.

In 1997, America was enjoying peace marred withpessimism about the future. The authors criticize contemporaryAmerican society as entitled and individualistic. They trace thesource of discontent to uncertainty about the future. As asolution, they offer an explanation of what would come. Theyobserve a pattern in their studies of American history and offerpredictions. Around every two decades, Anglo-American societyenters a new turning. They define a turning as a change of people'sself-identities, the culture, the nation, and the future. Eachturning lasts around twenty years, and they come in cycles of four.The timing of each cycle comes from the saeculum - the term to meanan approximate span of human life. The four turnings within eachcycle equate to periods of growth, maturation, entropy, anddestruction.

The First Turning is a High when institutionsgrow stronger and individualism weakens. The Second Turning, orAwakening, follows when the new values challenge the status quo.The Third Turning means Unraveling. The opposite trend to the Firstturning occurs: stronger individualism and weaker institutions. Thefinal, fourth stage is a secular Crisis when a new regime replacesthe old civic order.

Strauss and Howe then use historical evidenceto support their claim. To show that America was in the FourthTurning, they cite events to show the preceding stages. For theFirst Turning, presidencies of Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedybrought the High. The Consciousness Revolution between themid-1960s and the early 1980s signaled the Second Turning. TheThird Turning was evident in the Culture Wars that began duringRegan's term. Thus, the authors claim that America in their time,in 1997, was in the Fourth Turning. They draw comparisons betweenthe moods in the 1920s and the contemporary ones. The authorsobserve polarized social and generational conflicts in both timeperiods. Moreover, they trace The Third Turning events throughoutAmerican history. They conclude that culture wars were indicativeof the darkening moral debates.

The chapter describes three alternative wayspeople understood time: chaotic, cyclical, and linear. Chaotic timewas prevalent in primitive times. Traditional civilizationsconceived of time as cyclical. Linear time is a modern concept. Thedanger of chaotic and linear concepts of time is that theydisconnect people from other generations. This disconnect inhibitslearning about the future. To combat this trend, the chaptersuggests the return to a cyclical understanding of time. Withoutthe concept of recurrence, discussing the past is meaningless,according to Strauss and Howe. Therefore, the chapter encouragesthe readers to reject the linear time concept and embrace thecyclical time instead. Arthur M. Schlesinger traces the cyclicalpatterns in nature to claim that they occur in history. Strauss andHowe applaud Schlesinger for leading The courageous few whochallenge the linear orthodoxy."