David Houle - The Shift Age

Many people have given me their professional or personal support in the writing of this book.

Professionally, I need to first acknowledge and thank my editor, Celisa Steele, a gifted editor, a talented writer, and a wise and patient woman. Her firm yet deft touch helped to make this book ever so much better. A better editor one could not ask for.

Thanks to Ben Meier, whose research work on this book has been insightful and supportive.

To Steve Mazik and his company, What2Design, for designing the book cover.

To Mike Shatzkin, my tour guide of the publishing business, who gave generously of his time and, more importantly, shared his wisdom and intelligence. One could have no better advisor in publishing than Mike.

To my agent, Jeremy Katz, a wonderful blend of intelligence, persistence, and good editorial instincts. A class act.

To Arman, Dali, and Adam at Blueliner Marketing, who first suggested I write a blog. They guided and supported me, and they are a significant part of the success of http://www.evolutionshift.com, which led to this book.

To Caleb at Tough Customer, who is providing the innovative marketing techniques he uses in the world of digital music to the marketing of this book.

To Dr. Tara Palmatier, a collaborator and editor of some of my other work, whose quick mind, sharp sense of humor, and killer e-mail address brightened many a day.

To Max Alexander, whose collaboration helped to shape some of the thinking herein.

To the folks at BookSurge for their guidance and support in the final stages of publication.

Personally, there are many people to thank. First, Dr. Henry Burnett, who, almost three years ago on a beautiful sunny drive up the Pacific Coast Highway, told me to write a book. Jack Myers, a great friend for years, my TPP co-founder, media pundit, and fellow visionary. Bernard H. Baum, my own village elder, father-in-law, and exacting editor and conversationalist. To all my friends who have been there with support and encouragement along the way: Tom Geniesse; Cynthia Ivie; Stuart Friedman; Mary Lou Wattman; Gary Delfiner; David Fox; Jonathan Black; Jeff Cobb; Marilynn Preston; Bob Labate; George Rosenbaum; Susan Jeffers; Dave Kustin; Rob McGee; Larry Swenson; Tom Opper; Jay, Kevin, Todd, Tom, and Mike from Team-Works Media; and many others who provided the warmth of friendship.

Thanks to my son, Christopher, who gave me the greatest reason to think about the future and who showed me where I was behind the curve.

To my father, Cyril O. Houle, whose disciplined dedication to the writing of books during his life and my early years, was an image I remembered when writing this book became a struggle.

To my wife, Victoria, without whose constant support this book might not have been written. She is my muse but also provides tough love when needed.

There are a number of thinkers and writers who have influenced me and helped me to come to the points of view expressed in this book. Alvin Toffler, the brilliant future-thinker, has shaped my thinking more than anyone else when it comes to looking back and looking forward. Any book by Toffler is worth reading. Then, of course, are the other great writers who shaped our collective thinking in the last half century and influenced me particularly: Marshall McLuhan, Peter E Drucker, R. Buckminster Fuller, and John Naisbett. Also Nicholas Negroponte, James Howard Kunstler, Thomas Friedman, Peter Russell, and Howard Bloom. Also to be acknowledged are some of the greats of science fiction: Arthur C. Clarke, Philip K. Dick, Isaac Asimov, Robert Heinlein, John Brunner, Frank Herbert, Neal Stephenson, and William Gibson.

David Houle is a futurist, strategist, and speaker. He advises companies on forward-thinking growth strategies that can best take advantage of developing and future trends. He delivers speeches about the future, global and business trends, and vision. During his career he has been hired and retained by companies to help them build revenue and launch new brands and products. Most of his professional life has been spent in media, entertainment, and education. He was part of the executive team that launched MTV, Nickelodeon, VH1, and CNN Headline News. He has won two Emmys and a Peabody and was nominated for an Academy Award. He writes the well-respected Evolution Shift blog (.

http://www.davidhoule.com

http://www.evolutionshift.com

http://www.theshiftage.com

We should try to be the parents of our future rather than the offspring of our past.

Miguel de Unamuno (18641936), Spanish essayist, novelist, poet, playwright, and philosopher

November 2011

Four years ago, in late 2007, The Shift Age was first published. My futurist blog, www.evolutionshift.com, had been up for two years, and I had begun to speak about the Shift Age to audiences in the United States. Outside a growing core of loyal readers of the blog and some early fans, though, I was hardly a known futurist.

In late 2006 and early 2007, with the help of an agent and a well-connected friend in publishing, I circulated a manuscript for a book to publishers (that proposal was for a different book, not The Shift Age). As a futurist, though, I felt conflicted approaching the publishing industry at that time, because I had seen what occurred in the media and music industries, and I could clearly see what was about to happen to publishing. (This was the year before the Kindle was announced.) This was an industry that was about to undergo an incredible transformation and disruptionbut those in it couldnt see it at the time. In a column thats included in this book (titled A Book Convention: In the Year 2025 and written in June 2007) I correctly forecasted the explosion of online sales; the radical change in book stores; that there would be electronic book readers that would trigger a huge move to ebooks; and that the age of universal physicality of books was at an end. So as a futurist, it was odd for me to knock on the door of an industry that I was predicting was about to experience massive upheaval.

This soon-to-be-disrupted industry reacted to my manuscript in ways that were ridiculous and laughable. Theres no need to go over those here; the reactions werent personal, just based on soon-to-be-out-of-date thinking. There was one exception, though. Peter Lynch at Sourcebooks really got my book proposal, and presented it to the editorial committee at Sourcebooks. Now the committee would need to unanimously approve my proposal in order to offer publication, and I didnt get a unanimous vote at that time. Sourcebooks clearly got it more than the other publisher did, but perhaps it was just too early.

So I decided to have The Shift Age published by BookSurge, the in-house imprint of Amazon. Since Amazon had recently announced the Kindle, The Shift Age was one of the first books on the imprint to be converted to the Kindle ebook format.

Since late 2007, The Shift Age has become a highly influential book for CEOs and corporations. I have become known as the CEOs futurist, having advised or presented to 2,000+ CEOs and business owners. Numerous companiesmany of whom I have never methave told me that this book has inspired them to successfully change their entire business models to face the new realities of the Shift Age. So, while not a bestseller in the traditional publishing metrics, this book has indeed become influential beyond simple sales numbers.

In addition, since this book was published the first time, my speaking career as a futurist has taken off. I have delivered major keynote addresses on six continents and made some four hundred speeches and presentations. This is where my true influence has been, along with my blog and the Shift Age Newsletter.