Richard B. Jones - 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

Preface

Life is full of surprises. Some are good and some are not. As we travel through the time of our lives, we naturally develop tactics to deal with its joys and sorrows. From looking at the news media, a person could conclude that science, technology, and information are our personal saviors, prolonging our lives, protecting us from the behaviors of others, and even shielding us from the consequences of our personal actions. Theres no doubt that the powers of the internet and the new information age have broadened our horizons. But technology has done little to change or alter what comes into view. The question is: How can each of us best avoid some of lifes pitfalls and prepare to deal with those that penetrate our defenses?

There is no one size fits all tactic or recipe that works. Just as each of us is unique, so are our ethics, beliefs, aversions, and tolerances. The ways in which people deal with uncertainty seem simple on the surface, yet are extremely complex.

My motivation for this work was to write a book about risk that could be used as a supplement to a wide variety of risk-related courses and be interesting enough to be read as a standalone book. Risk is usually discussed in relation to a specific subject, such as environmental risk, transportation risk, health risk, food risk, and weather risk. The concept is blended with other subjects to inform or teach risk applications in specific areas. But risk is a subject all by itself. It permeates every part of our lives as a universal variable of human existence, transcending any specific application. This book provides a framework for you to apply to risk in both your professional and personal lives. Each chapter describes applied methods on how to analyze, assess, and manage risk. Together they give you tools to help you pack your personal and professional parachutes for some situations in which you need strategies to deal with unexpected events.

The information for this book came from various international organizations, books, journals, government reports, and newspaper articles. Much of the content is related to risk exposures discussed from the United States perspective simply because these data sources are readily available. For readers in other parts of the world, the same methodologies are applicable to you by accessing your countrys data sources, which should be similar to the ones used here. When possible, however, international data and examples are directly used to help readers around the world apply the principles discussed in the text. The international examples also help to show the great diversity in risk exposures and that there is a great deal of work that needs to be donenot all of it, by the way, in the developing world countries. After reading this book, youll probably be able to identify additional news items that would either add to or fit into the chapters.

The title of this book came from a conversation with a gift store clerk at Sapphire Beach on St. Thomas. While vacationing there with my family, I noticed a weather report showing that a cold front was expected to pass over the region the next day. Since wed planned to spend that day in a boat, I asked the clerk exactly what I should expect. She smiled and said, Oh, theres a 20% chance of rain tomorrow. Since two young children were involved, I pursued the issue a little further. And what does that usually mean? I asked. She laughed and told me. Dont worry. Thats what they say every day. Maybe it will rain, and it maybe wont. In St. Thomas, theres always a 20% chance of rain. I was left speechlessfor this simple response captured the essential element of the manuscript I was writing. Science really can make life appear more predictable, but its never going to replace our common sense. I hope you agree.

RICHARD B. JONES