Milton Friedman - A Program For Monetary Stability
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Friedman, Milton, 1912 A program for monetary stability / Milton Friedman. 10th printing, with new pref. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references ISBN 0-8232-0371-9 1. Monetary policyUnited States. I. Title. HG538.F87 1992 332.4'973dc2092-19612 CIP
Manufactured in the United States of America
Page v
Table of Contents
Preface
vii
Foreword
by Joseph R. Cammarosano
xiii
Prefatory Note
xvii
Chapter One The Background of Monetary Policy
1
Chapter Two The Tools of the Federal Reserve System
24
Chapter Three Debt Management and Banking Reform
52
Chapter Four The Goals and Criteria of Monetary Policy
77
Notes to the Chapters
103
Page vii
Preface
Major Monetary Disturbances and changes in monetary institutions have occurred since I gave these Millar lectures at Fordham University in 1959. Nonetheless, the lectures are as topical today as they were then. Most of the monetary disturbances simply illustrate or provide additional support for conclusions reached in the lectures. Some reforms that I recommended have been adopted, but most have not. Indeed, just in the past year, two issues discussed in Chapter 3, after lying fallow in the interim, have suddenly received much attention: one as a result of the savings and loan crisis; the other, of the scandal attending the attempt by Salomon Brothers to corner a Treasury issue.
The late 1950s was a rare period of relative monetary calm in the United States following the Korean War turbulence. Monetary growth was moderate and the price level was relatively stable, with prices rising at the rate of 2% to 3% a year. The calmness shortly came to an end, as the Kennedy administration undertook to "get the economy moving again," and the Federal Reserve obliged by increasing the rate of monetary growth. After the usual two-year lag, prices followed. The next two decades saw generally acceleratingthough highly variablemonetary growth and inflation, which had major effects on both ideas about money and monetary institutions.
Page viii
During the 1960s, monetary growth in the U.S. was accompanied by rapid economic growth and only modest inflation, thanks in large part to the arrangements for exchange rates agreed to at Bretton Woods, which meant that much of the inflationary effect of the monetary growth was exported. The resulting accumulation of dollars abroad produced upward pressure on the price of gold and growing calls on the United States to honor its Bretton Woods commitment to sell gold at the fixed price of $35 an ounce to foreign central banks. President Nixon responded by "closing the gold window"i.e., abrogating the Bretton Woods agreementon August 15, 1971 as part of a package of measures including sweeping price and wage controls, the first such controls ever imposed in peacetime. The inflation rate at the time was about 4.5%.
The collapse of the Bretton Woods system was the final step in the abandonment of any link, however indirect, between money and a commodity. As I said in Chapter 4, "only a cultural lag leads us still to think of gold as the central element of our monetary system." I there recommended that we should explicitly end the fiction that gold was the central element of our monetary system, sell off the government's stock of gold, end the Bretton Woods system, and allow "rates of exchange to be determined by the market." To a large extent, this has happened. However, it would have been far healthier for the U.S. and the world if it had happened in 1960, or even in 1969, as a matter of deliberate policy, rather than in 1971 in response to pressures produced by a decade of monetary mismanagement.1
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