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Chi Lo - Demystifying China’s Mega Trends: The Driving Forces That Will Shake Up China and the World

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Chi Lo Demystifying China’s Mega Trends: The Driving Forces That Will Shake Up China and the World
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The biggest causes of dissatisfaction in the current analysis of Chinas mega trends is the lack of serious economic research effort. This has resulted in confusion and misunderstanding about the development and direction of mega trends and blind acceptance of these trends. This all leads to potentially erroneous business and policy decisions and reactions to the emergence of China. This new book examines the structural forces behind mega trends in China, refuting conventional wisdom and demystifying media and market hype. It aims to bridge the gap between the East and the West, and academic and market studies of China by examining Chinas macroeconomic mega trends through the lens of rigorous economic research and evidence and taking a critical approach to question and assess the evolution of these mega trends. Coverage of Chinas mega trends in this book is not meant to be exhaustive, as new trends will emerge over time and the existing trends will keep on evolving.

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Demystifying Chinas Mega Trends

The Driving Forces That Will Shake Up China and the World

To Margaret, Edwyn and Arthur

Demystifying Chinas Mega Trends

The Driving Forces That Will Shake Up China and the World

By

Chi Lo

Senior Economist, Hong Kong

United Kingdom North America Japan India Malaysia China Also by Chi Lo When - photo 1

United Kingdom North America Japan India Malaysia China

Also by Chi Lo

When Asia Meets China in the New Millennium Chinas Role in Shaping Asias Post-Crisis Economic Transformation, Pearson Prentice Hall, 2003

The Misunderstood China Uncovering the Truth behind the Bamboo Curtain, Pearson Prentice Hall, 2004

Phantom of the China Economic Threat Shadow of the Next Asian Crisis, Palgrave Macmillan, 2006

Understanding Chinas Growth Forces that Drive Chinas Economic Future, Palgrave Macmillan, 2007

Asia and the Subprime Crisis Lifting the Veil on the Financial Tsunami, Palgrave Macmillan, 2009

China after the Subprime Crisis Opportunities in the New Economic Landscape, Palgrave Macmillan, November 2010

Thinking the Inevitable: Chinas Superpower Aspiration in the New Paradigm, Enrich Professional Publishing, March 2012

The Renminbi Rises: Myths, Hypes and Realities of RMB Internationalisation and Reforms in the Post-Crisis World, Palgrave Macmillan, July 2013

Chinas Impossible Trinity: The Structural Challenges to the Chinese Dream, Palgrave Macmillan, July 2015

Emerald Publishing Limited

Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK

First edition 2017

Chi Lo, 2017

Reprints and permissions service

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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-1-78714-410-1 (Print)

ISBN: 978-1-78714-409-5 (Online)

ISBN: 978-1-78714-722-5 (Epub)

Demystifying Chinas Mega Trends The Driving Forces That Will Shake Up China and the World - image 2Demystifying Chinas Mega Trends The Driving Forces That Will Shake Up China and the World - image 3
Contents
List of Abbreviations

AIIB

Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank

AREAER

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions

BAR

Belt and Road Strategy

BoP

Balance of Payments

BIS

Bank for International Settlements

CDB

China Development Bank

CFIUS

Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States

CIC

China Investment Corporation

CNH

Offshore Renminbi (Chinese yuan) in Hong Kong

CNPC

China National Petroleum Corporation

CNY

Onshore Renminbi (Chinese yuan)

CPI

Consumer Price Index

EPMI

Emerging PMI for seven new industries with strategic importance

EU

European Union

EXIM Bank

Export Import Bank of China

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment

FTZ

Free Trade Zone

G3

Group of Three Countries Japan, Europe and the United States

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GFC

Global Financial Crisis

LGFV

Local Government Financing Vehicle

M&A

Mergers and Acquisitions

MNCs

Multinational Corporations

MoF

Ministry of Finance

MPC

Marginal Propensity to Consume

NDB

New Development Bank

NDFI

Non-depository Financial Institutions

NDRC

National Development and Reform Commission

NPL

Non-performing Loans

ODI

Overseas Direct Investment

PBoC

Peoples Bank of China

PMI

Purchasing Manager Index

PPI

Producer Price Index

PPP

Public-Private Partnership Scheme

QDII

Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor

QFII

Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor

R&D

Research and Development

RQFII

Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor

SAFE

State Administration of Foreign Exchange

SASAC

State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission

SDR

Special Drawing Rights

SOE

State-owned Enterprises

SEZ

Special Economic Zone

TSF

Total Social Financing

UNCTAD

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

UNESCO

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

Preface

Some mega trends have developed since 1990s that have propelled China to become the worlds factory and the second largest economy in the world after the United States. Initially, these trends are simple and have been widely discussed by businesses and China watchers in the forms of books and business research reports. They focus on the production and income sides of these China mega trends and draw straight-line projections for Chinese demand growth, painting a rosy long-term outlook for the Middle Kingdom and translating them into optimistic business opportunity forecasts in China. The prevailing work predominately focuses on the microeconomic and business aspects.

These books and reports share some common characteristics. They are descriptive of the trends and simplistic on the assumptions that government policies are static (and correct) so that these business trends will unfold as projected. They are microeconomic orientated, based on business data, interviews, surveys and even anecdotes from travel experience. They capture the prevailing market sentiment, and hype, on Chinas economic liberalisation. These analyses predominately assume that by opening up to the world, China would be changed by the global forces and move towards the global norms. This approach has been proven naive as China has become so assertive that it wants the world to play by its rules too.

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