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Guillermo Perry - Financial vulnerability, spillover effects, and contagion: lessons from the Asian crises for Latin America

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    Financial vulnerability, spillover effects, and contagion: lessons from the Asian crises for Latin America
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There is already a large and growing literature about the financial crises affecting several former star economic performers in Asia. Some analysis have focused on the mismanagement of the structure of foreign debt and economic policies, while others have focused on weaknesses ingrained in the domestic financial and banking sectors of these economies. This paper attempts to reconcile these alternative explanations in a simple framework, where the causes and symptoms of financial vulnerability are distinguished.

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title Financial Vulnerability Spillover Effects and Contagion Lessons - photo 1

title:Financial Vulnerability, Spillover Effects, and Contagion : Lessons From the Asian Crises for Latin America World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies. Viewpoints
author:Perry, Guillermo.; Lederman, Daniel
publisher:World Bank
isbn10 | asin:0821342282
print isbn13:9780821342282
ebook isbn13:9780585213491
language:English
subjectBanks and banking--Asia, Financial crises--Asia, Fiscal policy--Latin America, Banks and banking--Latin America, Financial crises--Latin America, Fiscal policy--Latin America.
publication date:1998
lcc:HG3252.P47 1998eb
ddc:338.5/42
subject:Banks and banking--Asia, Financial crises--Asia, Fiscal policy--Latin America, Banks and banking--Latin America, Financial crises--Latin America, Fiscal policy--Latin America.
Page i
Financial Vulnerability, Spillover Effects, and Contagion:
Lessons from the Asian Crises for Latin America
WORLD BANK LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN STUDIES
Viewpoints
Guillermo E. Perry
and Daniel Lederman
The World Bank
Washington, D.C.
Page ii
Copyright 1998
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK
1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
All rights reserved
Manufactured in the United States of America
First printing July 1998
Second printing September 1999
This publication is part of the World Bank Latin American and Caribbean Studies series. Although these publications do not represent World Bank policy, they are intended to be thought-provoking and worthy of discussion, and they are designed to open a dialogue to explore creative solutions to pressing problems. Comments on this paper are welcome and will be published on the LAC Home Page, which is part of the World Bank's site on the World Wide Web. Please send comments via e-mail to laffairs@worldbank.org or via post to LAC External Affairs, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this volume do not imply on the part of the World Bank Group any judgment on the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to the Office of the Publisher at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to copy portions for classroom use is granted through the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., Suite 910, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, Massachusetts 01923, U.S.A.
The painting on the cover, Les Blesseures de la Memoire, by Roberto Matta, was provided by Christie's Images. Permission to reproduce it was granted by the Artists Rights Society (ARS) N.Y./ADAGP Paris.
Guillermo E. Perry is chief economist, Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office, The World Bank. Daniel Lederman is an economist in that office.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Perry, Guillermo.
Financial vulnerability, spillover effects, and contagion :
lessons from the Asian crises for Latin America / Guillermo Perry
and Daniel Lederman.
p. cm. (World Bank Latin American and Caribbean studies.
Viewpoints)
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-8213-4228-2
1. Banks and bankingAsia. 2. Financial crisesAsia. 3. Fiscal
policyLatin America. 4. Banks and bankingLatin America.
5. Financial crisesLatin America. 6. Fiscal policyLatin
America. I. Lederman, Daniel, 1968- . II. Title. III. Series.
HG3252.P47 1998 98-20908
338.5'42dc21 CIP
Page iii
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements
v
Summary
vii
I. Introduction
1
Part I: Symptoms and Root Causes of Financial Vulnerability
3
II. An Interpretation of the Asian Crises
5
III. Suggestive Evidence of the Symptoms of Financial Vulnerability
9
Part II: The Effects of the Asian Crises on Latin America
15
IV. The Channels of Spillover Effects and Contagion
17
V. Latin America Before and During the Asian Crises
21
VI. Concluding Remarks
33
Appendix 1: Statistical Appendix
35
Picture 2
Table A1. Banks and Credit Ratings
35
Picture 3
Table A2. Current Account Balances in Latin America and Asia, 19911997
36
Picture 4
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