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Ajay Agrawal - Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence

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Disruption resulting from the proliferation of AI is coming. The authors of the bestselling Prediction Machines can help you prepare.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has impacted many industries around the worldbanking and finance, pharmaceuticals, automotive, medical technology, manufacturing, and retail. But it has only just begun its odyssey toward cheaper, better, and faster predictions that drive strategic business decisions. When prediction is taken to the max, industries transform, and with such transformation comes disruption.

What is at the root of this? In their bestselling first book, Prediction Machines, eminent economists Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb explained the simple yet game-changing economics of AI. Now, in Power and Prediction, they go deeper, examining the most basic unit of analysis: the decision. The authors explain that the two key decision-making ingredients are prediction and judgment, and we perform both together in our minds, often without realizing it. The rise of AI is shifting prediction from humans to machines, relieving people from this cognitive load while increasing the speed and accuracy of decisions.

This sets the stage for a flourishing of new decisions and has profound implications for system-level innovation. Redesigning systems of interdependent decisions takes timemany industries are in the quiet before the stormbut when these new systems emerge, they can be disruptive on a global scale. Decision-making confers power. In industry, power confers profits; in society, power confers control. This process will have winners and losers, and the authors show how businesses can leverage opportunities, as well as protect their positions.

Filled with illuminating insights, rich examples, and practical advice, Power and Prediction is the must-read guide for any business leader or policymaker on how to make the coming AI disruptions work for you rather than against you.

Ajay Agrawal: author's other books


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Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence — read online for free the complete book (whole text) full work

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This is a book that leaders of all types of organizations should read It - photo 1

This is a book that leaders of all types of organizations should read. It explains the enormous size of the AI opportunity and the challenges in getting there. From banking to manufacturing and from fashion to mining, the impact of AI systems will be ubiquitous, like electricity and the internet.

DOMINIC BARTON, Chair, Rio Tinto; former Global Managing Partner, McKinsey & Company

AI may be to the twenty-first century what electricity was to the twentieth. Anyone thinking about our economic future needs to ponder its implications. This is the best book yet that considers what it will mean for all who participate in our economy.

LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS, Charles W. Eliot University Professor and former president, Harvard University; former secretary, US Treasury; and former chief economist, World Bank

AI will surely displace jobs and disrupt industries in the decades to come, driven by entrepreneurs who are implementing effectual thinking. The system-level changes that are on the horizon are excitingly discussed in this book, laying the bedrock for the oncoming revolution.

VINOD KHOSLA, founder, Khosla Ventures; cofounder, Sun Microsystems

It takes courage to dive in and a willingness to invest time to reap the rewards embedded in these pages. But it is so worth it. The book is a hugely thought-provoking and inspiring primer on how to shape strategy and design organizations in the age of AI.

HEATHER REISMAN, founder and CEO, Indigo Books and Music

This book is pretty damn epic. Were often told that AI will be the most important thing humanity ever works on, yet it feels abstract and niche in its current impact on the world. The authors show us how these two sentiments are not in tension. They provide so many unique and rich examples to really help the reader understand why on a limbic level. Its a perfect description of this counterintuitive moment in AIs historya must-read for anyone who wants to peek around the corner into AIs future.

SHIVON ZILIS, Director of Operations and Special Projects, Neuralink; board member, OpenAI; former project director, Tesla

Nobody provides more insight into the fundamental economics of AI and what AI truly enables. Its not just use cases for low-cost predictionits better decision systems. Thats a much bigger step for business and the economy.

TIFF MACKLEM, governor, Bank of Canada

Agrawal, Gans, and Goldfarb have done it again! Their new book, Power and Prediction, is destined to become the definitive guide to understanding how and why AI is transforming the economy.

ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Professor and Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI; Director, Stanford Digital Economy Lab; coauthor, The Second Machine Age and Machine Platform Crowd

Whether we like it or not, artificial intelligence is set to influence every aspect of our lives. How can we make sure that individuals, companies, and organizations benefit from it rather than waste time and resources dealing with unintended consequences? This readable book provides an excellent introduction, emphasizing how AI can improve what we do by providing better predictions and helping reorganize systems.

DARON ACEMOGLU, Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics, MIT; author, When Nations Fail

Power and Prediction

The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence AJAY AGRAWAL JOSHUA - photo 2

The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence

AJAY AGRAWAL

JOSHUA GANS

AVI GOLDFARB

HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW PRESS

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS

HBR Press Quantity Sales Discounts

Harvard Business Review Press titles are available at significant quantity discounts when purchased in bulk for client gifts, sales promotions, and premiums. Special editions, including books with corporate logos, customized covers, and letters from the company or CEO printed in the front matter, as well as excerpts of existing books, can also be created in large quantities for special needs.

For details and discount information for both print and ebook formats, contact .

Copyright 2022 Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb

All rights reserved

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior permission of the publisher. Requests for permission should be directed to , or mailed to Permissions, Harvard Business School Publishing, 60 Harvard Way, Boston, Massachusetts 02163.

The web addresses referenced in this book were live and correct at the time of the books publication but may be subject to change.

Cataloging-in-Publication data is forthcoming.

ISBN: 978-1-64782-419-8

eISBN: 978-1-64782-420-4

To our families, colleagues, students, and startups: you inspired us to think clearly and deeply about artificial intelligence.
Thank you.

CONTENTS
PREFACE: SUCCESS FROM AWAY?

When we published Prediction Machines in 2018, we thought we had said all we needed to on the economics of AI. We were wrong.

Although we fully realized the technology would continue to evolveAI was still in its infancywe knew that the underlying economics would not. Thats the beauty of economics. Technologies change, but economics doesnt. We laid out a framework for the economics of AI in that book, which remains useful today. However, the Prediction Machines framework only told part of the story, the point solutions part. In the years since, we discovered that another key part of the AI story had yet to be told, the systems part. We tell that story here. How did we miss it in the first place? We wind the tape back to 2017, when we were writing Prediction Machines, to explain.

That year, half a decade after Canadian AI pioneers demonstrated the superior performance of deep learning for classifying images, interest was exploding in the new technology. Everyone was talking about AI, and there was speculation it could launch Canada onto the worlds technology stage. It was not a matter of if but when.

We founded a science-oriented startup program, the Creative Destruction Lab, with a stream devoted to AI. Everyone was asking, Where do you expect to see Canadas first AI unicornthe first AI startup to reach a billion-dollar valuation? Our bet: Montreal. Or maybe Toronto. Or possibly Edmonton.

We were not alone. The Canadian government was placing the same bets. On October 26, 2017, we hosted Justin Trudeau, the prime minister of Canada, at our annual conference on AI at the Creative Destruction Lab: Machine Learning and the Market for Intelligence.

We felt confident in our beliefs about the commercialization of AI. We were, supposedly, world experts on this topic. We had authored a bestselling book on the economics of AI; we had published a swath of scholarly articles and management essays on the topic; we were coediting what would become the primary reference for PhD students in the field, The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda; we had founded a program for the commercialization of AI that had, to the best of our knowledge, the greatest concentration of AI companies of any program on earth; we were delivering presentations around the world to business and government leaders; and we served on a number of AI-related policy committees, task forces, and roundtables.

Our perspective that AI should be viewed as prediction resonated with practitioners. We were invited to deliver presentations at Google, Netflix, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft. Gustav Sderstrm, head of product, engineering, data, and design at Spotify, one of the worlds largest music-streaming service providers, referenced our book in an interview:

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