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Brynjar Lia - Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions

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This new study is devoted to understanding how international terrorism is shaped, how it evolves and what we can expect in the future.

Drawing upon research and methods outside the traditional focus, and by taking both a theoretical approach and a new practical predictive perspective, it delivers a fresh and fascinating contribution to terrorism studies.

While predicting terrorism is a highly speculative business, there are ways of identifying certain long-term causes, driving forces and their links with society. Terrorists are usually integral players in local and sometimes global politics. Hence, when the local, regional and international contexts change, so does terrorism.

Thoroughly reviewing the body of literature on the causes of terrorism, this study also combines predictive and futuristic analyses on globalisation, supported by a range of key case studies. It spans from the transformation of international relations, the globalisation of the market economy, demographic factors, ideological shifts and technological changes. The result is a set of key conclusions about the future patterns of terrorism, which are not simply best guesses, but also backed up by solid research.

This book will be of great interest to all students and scholars of terrorism, globalisation, politics and international relations.

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GLOBALISATION AND THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM This book sets out to explain how - photo 1
GLOBALISATION AND THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM

This book sets out to explain how international terrorism is shaped, how it evolves over time and what we are to expect in the future. It offers a fresh contribution by drawing upon research and methods outside the traditional terrorism research genre, and by taking both a theoretical and a practical predictive approach still unusual in the field of terrorism studies.
While predicting terrorist activities is a highly speculative business, Brynjar Lia has identified a number of long-term causes and driving forces. He combines these research findings with predictive literature on various aspects of globalisation, and underpins his analysis by numerous case studies. The result is a set of propositions about future patterns of terrorism, which are not simply best guesses, but backed up by the latest research in the field.
Lia finds that the current wave of deadly terrorist attacks is rooted in global structural factors, including the current unipolar and interventionist world order, proliferation of weak transitional states, globalisation of organised crime, privatisation of policing and warfare, migration and ethnic heterogenisation, growing information interconnectedness, and diffusion of deadly technologies. These systemic causes will shape the future terrorist landscape, and will sustain a high level of transnational terrorism in the foreseeable future.
This book will be of invaluable interest to students, researchers and practitioners in the field of terrorism studies.

Dr Brynjar Lia is a senior researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. He is widely regarded as one of Norways foremost experts on international terrorism. He was a Visiting Fulbright Scholar at Harvard University in 20012. Lia is the author of The Society of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt 192842: The Rise of an Islamic Mass Movement and A Police Force Without a State: A History of the Palestinian Security Forces in the West Bank and Gaza and has published more than 20 research reports and articles.
The future is notoriously difficult to predict, especially when it comes to terrorism which thrives on the unexpected. Brynjar Lias Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism is probably the best guide available an impressive tour dhorizon, methodologically sound, well-argued and convincing in its conclusion that, unfortunately, high levels of terrorism are going to be with us for a very long time.
Dr Alex P. Schmid, UN Terrorism Prevention Branch, Vienna
Globalisation has had a profound impact on contemporary terrorist thinking and behaviour. A pre-eminent specialist on the security environment, Brynjar Lia has authored the definitive text on the subject. As terrorist and insurgent groups worldwide harness the forces of globalization, Lia skilfully dissects its enduring impact on security. It must be read by the specialist and the generalist.
Dr Rohan Gunaratna, Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Singapore and US Military Academy, West Point and author of Inside Al Qaeda, Global Network of Terror
This book provides an extremely useful analytical toolbox as to how globalisation and broader structural causes produce and drive terrorism across the globe in differing contexts. The new global security environment demands new thinking about terrorism. This book provides that critical roadmap towards understanding terrorism strategically as an asymmetric challenge for future generations.
Dr Magnus Ranstorp, director of Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St Andrews, Scotland
CONTEMPORARY SECURITY STUDIES

NATOS SECRET ARMY: OPERATION GLADIO AND TERRORISM IN WESTERN EUROPE
Daniel Ganser

THE US, NATO AND MILITARY BURDEN-SHARING
Peter Kent Forster and Stephen J. Cimbala

RUSSIAN GOVERNANCE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY GEO-STRATEGY, GEOPOLITICS AND NEW GOVERNANCE
Irina Isakova

THE FOREIGN OFFICE AND FINLAND 19381940 DIPLOMATIC SIDESHOW
Craig Gerrard

RETHINKING THE NATURE OF WAR
Isabelle Duyvesteyn and Jan Angstrom (eds)

PERCEPTION AND REALITY IN THE MODERN YUGOSLAV CONFLICT MYTH, FALSEHOOD AND DECEIT 19911995
Brendan OShea

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF PEACEBUILDING IN POST-DAYTON BOSNIA
Tim Donais

THE DISTRACTED EAGLE THE RIFT BETWEEN AMERICA AND OLD EUROPE
Peter H. Merkl

THE IRAQ WAR EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVES ON POLITICS, STRATEGY, AND OPERATIONS
Jan Hallenberg and Hkan Karlsson (eds)

STRATEGIC CONTEST WEAPONS PROLIFERATION AND WAR IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST
Richard L. Russell

PROPAGANDA, THE PRESS AND CONFLICT THE GULF WAR AND KOSOVO
David R. Willcox

MISSILE DEFENCE INTERNATIONAL, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS
Bertel Heurlin and Sten Rynning (eds)

GLOBALISING JUSTICE FOR MASS ATROCITIES A REVOLUTION IN ACCOUNTABILITY
Chandra Lekha Sriram

ETHNIC CONFLICT AND TERRORISM THE ORIGINS AND DYNAMICS OF CIVIL WARS
Joseph L. Soeters

GLOBALISATION AND THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM:
PATTERNS AND PREDICTIONS
Brynjar Lia

NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND STRATEGY: US NUCLEAR POLICY FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
Stephen J. Cimbala
GLOBALISATION AND THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM
Patterns and Predictions

Brynjar Lia
First published 2005 by Routledge 2 Park Square Milton Park Abingdon Oxon - photo 2
First published 2005
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group
2005 Brynjar Lia
Typeset in Times by
RefineCatch Limited, Bungay, Suffolk
Printed and bound in Great Britain by
Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham, Wiltshire
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Lia, Brynjar.
Globalisation and the future of terrorism : patterns and predictions / Brynjar Lia.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Terrorism. 2. TerrorismForecasting. 3. Globalization. 4. International relations. 5. World politics1989 I. Title: Globalization and the future of terrorism. II. Title.
HV6431.L498 2005
303.625dc22
2005005339
ISBN 0-7146-5261-X

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