Praise for Reducing the Risk of Black Swans
The search for the holy grail of investing has intensified since 2014 with development of new investor alternatives facilitating more efficient strategies for investors. Swedroe and Grogan clearly present and illustrate this path to improved investment performance to the benefit of us all.
John A. Haslem, Professor Emeritus of Finance, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland
New to this edition is a practical guide to finding alternative investments to black-swan proof your portfolio. Swedroes books on investment mistakes, factor investing and now this one form the backbone of my investment strategies course. My students love the way his books help them think clearly, write crisply, and guide them to new discoveries.
Ed Tower, Professor of Economics, Duke University
Reducing the Risk of Black Swans does an excellent job describing a set of unique alternative investments, which can be used to build portfolios with less downside risk without sacrificing expected returns. Investment pros should read this book.
Wesley R. Gray, Ph.D., CEO of Alpha Architect and Co-Author of Quantitative Momentum
Jumping out of airplane offers a much more thrilling experience than riding a bicycle down the street. But what if skydiving were as safe as riding that bike? Swedroe and Grogan pose the financial equivalent to that question in their updated book, Reducing the Risk of Black Swans: Using the Science of Investing to Capture Returns with Less Volatility. This new edition introduces some newly available products. By coupling such products with Nobel Prize winning theory, Swedroe and Grogan explain how investors can earn higher rewards, while taking lower levels of risk.
Andrew Hallam, Author of Millionaire Teacher: The Nine Rules of Wealth You Should Have Learned in School and Millionaire Expat: How To Build Wealth Living Overseas
If the holy grail of investing is many dependable but uncorrelated sources of return, then Swedroe and Grogan have charted a valuable course for investors. This book covers a variety of traditional and alternative risk premia and anomalies, supported by a tsunami of evidence, and rounded out with fund and ETF recommendations. Market conditions may offer auspicious timing for this book, but the takeaways are timeless. Get it and read it for better investment outcomes.
Adam Butler, Chief Investment Officer, ReSolve Asset Management
Copyright
Copyright 2018 by Larry Swedroe & Kevin Grogan
ISBN: 978-0-692-06074-2 (paperback)
ISBN: 978-0-692-06075-9 (ebook)
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the publisher, addressed Attention: Permissions Coordinator, at the address below.
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Contents
Acknowledgements
For all their support and encouragement, we thank our colleagues at Buckingham Strategic Wealth and The BAM ALLIANCE, with special thanks to Dan Campbell for his help with the data. In addition, we would like to thank the research staffs at AQR Capital Management (specifically Anti Ilmanen, Ronen Israel and Toby Moskowitz, as well as Mark McClennan), Bridgeway Capital Management (especially Andrew Berkin), and Dimensional Fund Advisors (especially Jim Davis, Marlena Lee and Weston Wellington, as well as Bo Cornell).
We would also like to acknowledge the contributions of Adam Butler, Wes Gray, John Haslem and Ed Tower, each of whom reviewed the book and offered valuable suggestions.
Larry thanks his wife, Mona, the love of his life, for her tremendous encouragement and understanding during the lost weekends and many nights he sat at the computer well into the early morning hours. She has always provided whatever support was neededand then some. Walking through life with her has truly been a gracious experience.
Kevin thanks his wife, Julie, who makes every day a joy, for her love and patience. He also thanks his parents, brother and sister-in-law, who have always supported him and had his best interests in mind.
Finally, we express our great appreciation to Ross Stevens of Stone Ridge for providing the foreword.
The usual caveat applies that any remaining mistakes are ours.
Preface
The first edition of this book was published in 2014. In that version, we showed how investors could create more efficient portfolios using what we refer to as the science of investing. Such portfolios, built on evidence from peer-reviewed academic journals, not only have delivered higher risk-adjusted returns, but also have significantly reduced the negative impact of rare, downside events, known as black swans.
Since 2014, favorable developments have led us to conclude that the time to update the book had arrived. The most important development has been the retailization of investment strategies once solely the domain of hedge funds and institutional investors. The good news is that mutual fund sponsors have been bringing these strategies to the public in the form of vehicles regulated under the Investment Act of 1940, with expense ratios well below those of the traditional 2 percent of assets and 20 percent of profits, or 2/20, fee structure of hedge funds.
Because many hedge fund strategies involve investing in illiquid investments (allowing investors to access the illiquidity premium), fund sponsors had to develop an alternative to the open-end mutual fund structure that provides daily liquidity. An example of a strategy that requires an alternative structure is investing in longer-term consumer loans, such as a student loan. You cannot make a three-, five- or seven-year loan if the capital you need to originate it can be withdrawn on a daily basis. Another example is investing in reinsurance contracts, which typically are for one year. The interval fund structure was developed to address this issue.
An interval fund is a closed-end investment company that periodically (typically quarterly) offers to buy back a stated portion of its shares from shareholders. However, while interval funds are valued daily, their shares typically do not trade on the secondary market like other closed-end funds.
Another important development has been the fintech revolution. Firms such as Lending Club, Square and SoFi have been utilizing technology to disintermediate traditional lenders, such as banks, in the consumer, small business and student loan lending markets. Their lower costs have enabled them to offer more attractive rates than traditional banks. These firms need committed sources of longer-term capital to make term loans and provide immediate funding to borrowers. Interval funds partner with such lenders, providing investors access to these markets.
These developments have enabled retail investors to access new and unique sources of risk and returns. Each of the alternative investments we will discuss have equity-like forward-looking return expectations that show low to no correlation to the returns of the traditional stocks and bonds dominant in portfolios. The combination of equity-like returns and low correlation allows investors to build more efficient portfolios than when the first edition of this book was published.