Pero Micic - The Five Futures Glasses: How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model

How to See and Understand More of the Future with the Eltville Model

Pero Mii

CEO, FutureManagementGroup AG, Germany

Pero Mii 2010

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First published in 2007 by GABAL Verlag GmbH, Offenbach as Die fnf Zukunftsbrillen

This edition published 2010 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN

Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.

Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martins Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.

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ISBN: 9780230247055

This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

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Printed and bound in China

Dr Pero Mii (pronounced Mitchitch) is internationally known as a leading expert for future management, future markets and strategic foresight.

Chairman of FutureManagementGroup AG whose mission it is to help top leaders in business, politics and administration to see more of the future and the future markets than their competitors.

Consultant to the management teams and experts of many of the worlds leading companies. He helps them to systematically elaborate and analyze future scenarios, to perceive and to seize future opportunities at a very early point and to turn this knowledge into strategic and financial success.

Keynote speaker on professional conferences and festivities in America, Europe and Asia.

Holds a PhD in Strategy from Leeds Business School.

Author of six books on future management and foresight.

Developer of the Eltville Model of future management.

Lecturer at renowned universities and management academies.

Founding member of the Association of Professional Futurists in the USA.

President of the advisory board to the European Futurists Conference in Lucerne, Switzerland.

President of the conference on International Trend and Future Management.

Visit www.FutureManagementGroup.com for more information.

Good future management is one of the most important success factors in private and in corporate life. Regardless of whether you are the chairman of a corporation or your own life enterprise, the better you are able to perceive and use future changes, and the opportunities they conceal, at an early stage, the easier it is to build and maintain your success.

As Seneca said two thousand years ago:

There will come a time when we will be surprised that we didnt know such obvious things. (Lucius Seneca)

Most of the trends, technologies and issues that will determine our future in the next ten to twenty years are already visible now. The future is already here; it just hasnt arrived everywhere to the same extent. How can we use futures research as a source of orientation, inspiration and innovation? How can we see more of the future in a meaningful and rational way?

Even among experts, there is a Babylonian confusion of language concerning the most important concepts and terms on the future. There is no conclusive language for the phenomenon of the future: much of the benefit of futures research and future management therefore remains hidden. We need a model that enables us to express exactly, or at least more exactly than usual, what we see and feel and what we think of with regard to the future. We need a map for futures terminology. A layman can only describe the taste of wine with a few words such as dry, mellow, sweet. The expert has a vocabulary of a thousand words. He has models and terms for the various occasions on which wine can be enjoyed and experienced and differentiates very clearly between the different impressions of the same wine in different situations. How much clearer and richer his perception of the world of wine must be!

Lets look at five statements about the year 2020 that could appear in your newspaper today:

1. In a research report to the government by the Federal Statistics Office, a demographer writes that thirty percent of the population will be older than sixty in 2020.

2. A WTO virologist writes that there could be a pandemic by 2020, as a result of which several million people could die within a short period.