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Anthony Crescenzi - The Strategic Bond Investor

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Copyright 2021 by McGraw Hill All rights reserved Except as permitted under - photo 1

Copyright 2021 by McGraw Hill All rights reserved Except as permitted under - photo 2

Copyright 2021 by McGraw Hill. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

ISBN: 978-1-26-047368-1
MHID: 1-26-047368-6

The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: ISBN: 978-1-26-047367-4, MHID: 1-26-047367-8.

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All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps.

McGraw-Hill Education eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions or for use in corporate training programs. To contact a representative, please visit the Contact Us page at www.mhprofessional.com.

This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher is engaged in rendering legal, accounting, securities trading, or other professional services. If legal advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.

From a Declaration of Principles Jointly Adopted by a Committee of the
American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers and Associations

TERMS OF USE

This is a copyrighted work and McGraw-Hill Education and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill Educations prior consent. You may use the work for your own noncommercial and personal use; any other use of the work is strictly prohibited. Your right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply with these terms.

THE WORK IS PROVIDED AS IS. McGRAW-HILL EDUCATION AND ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THE WORK, INCLUDING ANY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH THE WORK VIA HYPERLINK OR OTHERWISE, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. McGraw-Hill Education and its licensors do not warrant or guarantee that the functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will be uninterrupted or error free. Neither McGraw-Hill Education nor its licensors shall be liable to you or anyone else for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work or for any damages resulting therefrom. McGraw-Hill Education has no responsibility for the content of any information accessed through the work. Under no circumstances shall McGraw-Hill Education and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, punitive, consequential or similar damages that result from the use of or inability to use the work, even if any of them has been advised of the possibility of such damages. This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tort or otherwise.

Disclosure

This material contains the current opinions of the author but not necessarily those of PIMCO and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This publication has been distributed for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. The author or PIMCO may or may not own the securities referenced and, if such securities are owned, no representation is being made that such securities will continue to be held. The views expressed are as of the date recorded, and may not reflect recent market developments.

Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute accounting, legal, tax, securities or investment advice, not an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, not a solicitation of any type. This publication contains a general discussion of the bond market; readers should be aware that all investments contain risk and may lose value. The information contained herein should not be acted upon without obtaining specific accounting, legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional.

PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. THE NEW NEUTRAL is a trademark of Pacific Investment Management Company LLC in the United States and throughout the world.

To my enchanting daughters, Brittany, Victoria, and Isabella. Each of you brings me immeasurable joy and purpose. Keep going!

To my granddaughter Emmy, who is a delightful gift to us all. Emmy, reach for the stars like NASAs Artemis and you are sure to go far. I will follow you along your wondrous journey.

To my brother and sisters, and to my parents, Anita and Joseph, for showing me the wonderment of life, love, and the power of dreams.

To Laura, for your unwavering and unparalleled unconditional love.

To all, who, in one way or another, are survivors, and who, despite obstacles and challenges, find ways to keep moving forward.

To my fellow Investment Committee members for each day teaching me something new to help us all be the best guardians of capital and stewards of the capital markets that we can be: Dan Ivascyn, our Group-CIO, Scott Mather, Marc Seidner, Mark Kiesel, Andrew Balls, Chris Dialynas, Joachim Fels, Qi Wang, Mohsen Fahmi, and Sudi Mariappa.

To Bill Gross, Mohamed El-Erian, and Steve Rodosky, for the chance of a lifetime to work for PIMCO, which I am immensely proud to be a part of.

CONTENTS

Building Blocks and Warning Labels

Asset Diversification Does Not Equal Risk Diversification

The Powerful Role of the Federal Reserve and the Worlds Central Banks

The Bond Markets Crystal Ball

Why They Are Important to Understand

Tracking Market Sentiment to Forecast Market Behavior

An Essential Tool for a Bond Investor to Be a True Guardian of Capital

Reaching the Practical Limits of Debt Use

This Changes Everything, Including the World

FOREWORD

B etween about 1347 and 1351, Europe was destroyed by the largest pandemic recorded in human history. It is commonly referred to as the Black Death. There is a long and glorious tradition of great medievalists, so we know a lot about the Black Death, and as well there are many contemporary reports. Suffice it to say that between 75 million and 200 million people died. We believe rodents coming from the dried-out grasslands of Asia to be the culprits that brought it to what is now Italy. Of course, the real cause is a bacterium called

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