Anthony Cordesman - Western Strategic Interests in Saudi Arabia (RLE Saudi Arabia)

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First published in 1987

This edition first published in 2015
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN

and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

1987 Anthony H. Cordesman

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 9781138825154 (Set)
ISBN: 9781138846395 (Volume 7)

Publishers Note
The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint but points out that some imperfections in the original copies may be apparent.

Disclaimer
The publisher has made every effort to trace copyright holders and would welcome correspondence from those they have been unable to trace.

1987 Anthony H. Cordesman
Croom Helm Ltd, Provident House, Burrell Row,
Beckenham, Kent, BR3 1AT
Croom Helm Australia, 4450 Waterloo Road,
North Ryde, 2113, New South Wales

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

Cordesman, Anthony H.
Western strategic interests in Saudi Arabia.
1. World politics198519952. Saudi
ArabiaForeign relations
I. Title
327.091713 DS227

ISBN 0709948239

Croom Helm, 27 South Main Street,
Wolfeboro, New Hampshire 038942069, USA

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data applied for:

---

To Bridget and Francis

---

Printed and bound in Great Britain by
Biddies Ltd, Guildford and Kings Lynn

CONTENTS

Tables

Ever since the Arab oil embargo of 1974, the West has sought to find alternatives to its dependence on imported oil. At the same time, the shock of that oil crisis has triggered reported Western efforts to secure its access to Gulf oil. These efforts were greatly accelerated in 1979 and 1980 by the fall of the Shah of Iran, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the beginning of the IranIraq War, but they at best have had mixed success.

While the West has made progress in conservation and in reducing its need for energy as a percentage of GNP, it has fallen far short of its goals in finding new sources of energy. Key energy sources like coal and nuclear power have proved to present far more problems than the West estimated when it began its Search for alternative fuels. Synthetic fuels, and energy sources like wind and geothermal energy have proved technically difficult and too costly for commercial scale production. While a major global recession and financial crisis in the Third World have created a temporary oil glut, the Wests long term dependence on oil imports is now projected to be even worse than any experts projected in the early 1970s.

The West has experienced similar problems in creating an effective capability to secure its oil imports. Western power projection forces and capabilities have declined steadily for the last two decades. Western Europe now has almost no capability to intervene in the Gulf and France is the only European nation that could deploy even one light attack carrier to the region.

U.S. efforts to buildup Irans military capabilities as a pillar of regional security collapsed completely with the Shahs fall and the Iranian hostage crisis. The U.S. has since made major improvements in its regional power projection capabilities, but its U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces have limited land force strength, major shortfalls in strategic lift, and are totally dependent on friendly forward bases for effective military action.

This has left the West dependent on the political, military, and economic stability of the the Gulf. Roughly half the worlds proven oil reserves are located in the Gulf region, and in the territory of eight nations: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. In spite of a decade of intense exploration in other areas, the Gulf is also the region with the highest potential for major new discoveries and the only area in the world where the discovery of new reserves is outpacing oil production.

This virtually forces the west to try to build sound strategic relations with the Gulf states. The west also has limited time to do so. The present oil glut will end by the early to mid1990s. The West will then face growing competition from the Soviet bloc, and see the exports of Asian and African oil exporting nations drop steadily as their oil reserves are depleted. The current pause in the strategic competition for oil resources is only a lull in a steadily gathering storm.

The West, however, has few options for creating such strategic relations. Iran is in the midst of a hostile religious revolution and a war with Iraq whose outcome is exceedingly uncertain. No one can predict whether Iran will tilt back towards the West, tilt toward the USSR, or be a chronic source of regional instability. The only thing that seems certain is that Iran will not be a support to Western security, and that it may well be a serious threat.

Iraq has become steadily more moderate since the mid1970s. It is, however, engaged in a brutal and uncertain war with Iran. It is unclear that Iraqs present regime will survive, or that Iraq will preserve its moderate course once it has to come to grips with the cost of the IranIraq War and with the problem of financing its war debts and economic recovery. While it now seems most likely that Iraq will remain relatively moderate, and concentrate on economic development and its trade ties with the West, the West can scarcely count on such a future. Further, there are no serious prospects for any direct military or strategic alliance between Iraq and the West that would give the West significant contingency capabilities in the Gulf area.

This leaves the West dependent on the six southern Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman. All are moderate, all have shown a good ability to cope with the past tensions and problems in the region, and all have strong trade ties with the West. Further, all six states are united in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is making slow but steady process towards creating a collective regional security structure.

The six Southern Gulf states, however, are not by any means equal. Five of the states are very small, and some are deeply divided. Only Saudi Arabia has the combination of population, wealth, stability, and geography necessary to buildup a reasonable national deterrent, and to give the Gulf Cooperation Council real meaning.

Sheer geography also makes Saudi Arabia an essential security partner in any Western effort to create stable security relations with the West. Its borders and coastline dominate the Southern Gulf, Arabian Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Red Sea. While the West has contingency bases in states like Egypt, Oman, and Turkey that can be of great value, the West must have access to Saudi Arabia to deal with any serious Iranian or Soviet threat to the region.

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