Laurie Fitzjohn-Sykes - Playing the Long Game: How to Save the West from Short-Termism

Title page

Playing the Long Game

How to Save the West from Short-Termism

Laurie Fitzjohn-Sykes

SOCIETAS

essays in political

& cultural criticism

imprint-academic.com

Publisher information

2015 digital version by Andrews UK Limited

www.andrewsuk.com

Copyright Laurie Fitzjohn-Sykes, 2015

The moral rights of the author have been asserted. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form without permission, except for the quotation of brief passages in criticism and discussion.

Originally published in the UK by

Imprint Academic, PO Box 200, Exeter EX5 5YX, UK

Originally distributed in the USA by

Ingram Book Company,

One Ingram Blvd., La Vergne, TN 37086, USA

Introduction

On the 25 th June in 2010, Masayoshi Son, a Japanese businessman, gave a two-hour speech to the shareholders of Softbank for which he is CEO and a major shareholder. The speech was to lay out the companys business plan. As you can imagine, these presentations are not often that exciting. When attending the trick is to sit near the back and have a heavy dose of the free coffee, but this one was a little different. In addition to the shareholders, there were a thousand fans who had won tickets. The business plan being presented was not how to reach the targeted profit in a years time. It was instead a 30-year business plan and a 300-year vision for the future. The speech touched on artificial intelligence, 200-year life expectancy and the development of telepathy.

You are probably thinking that this was delivered by some sort of bombastic CEO proclaiming to know the future. But Masayoshi Son comes across as a relatively unimposing figure. When he speaks you can sense the enjoyment he gains from what he does, there is a playfulness you rarely find in business leaders. If most CEOs gave such a speech, they would be met with ridicule. It is hard to know what will happen in a few years let alone 30 or even 300 years. And yet this speech was no great surprise to the audience, for Masayoshi Son has made his name by taking a long-term view, in a country already known for taking a long-term view. An attribute he would argue has helped him rise from humble beginnings to become the richest man in Japan.

Around the same time, I was accompanying the chief financial officer (CFO) of a major European company on some meetings to see existing and potential investors. The CFOs aim was to keep existing shareholders happy and persuade new ones to buy shares. Most investors would ask the same questions, to which management would give the same answers. Why had growth slowed? Would it improve next quarter? Why were profit margins not increasing as expected? Why were they investing in an area that would take years to deliver any benefit? Why was more money not being returned to shareholders via bigger dividends?

The difference between the two is stark, in one a CEO announces a 30-year plan to raptures of applause, in the other management is pressured for why the quarterly results were not better and why more cash is not being returned to shareholders. This shows the difference that can exist between how companies are run and what decisions they take. How some companies focus on the next 10 years, while others focus on the next quarter.

In the West, and especially the US and UK, businesses are increasingly focused on next quarters profits in order to justify ever increasing executive compensation, with investment falling as a result. This is badly damaging our economy and accentuating the Wests decline versus the East. I believe this is the most important issue of our time. We only succeed by investing and currently our businesses are not doing this. This book looks at how we got to this point and what we can do about it.

In the next chapter I outline the evidence for and costs of short-termism. Chapter 2 explains why and how companies developed. Chapter 3 looks at how the ownership and control of our companies has changed over the last hundred years, moving from families to financial markets. In Chapter 4 I explain how this has led to a short-term focus. In Chapter 5 I briefly explain some of the other models for company ownership around the world. Chapter 6 looks at some reforms to tackle short-termism, focusing on incentives. Chapter 7 then looks at the missing piece in the short-termism puzzle which is the information behind decisions.

Chapter One: The Problem of Short-Termism

There is no quality in human nature, which causes more fatal errors in our conduct, than that which leads us to prefer whatever is present to the distant and remote.

-David Hume ( A Treatise on Human Nature , 1740)

In the West we obsess about what our governments are doing; should they spend more on health, education or defence? How much immigration should they allow? In contrast, when it comes to business we assume they follow a set course determined by the pursuit of profit. We only worry whether profits are too high or how much the executives are being paid. We rarely ask, are they investing enough and in the right areas? The truth is that companies make some of the most important decisions in our economy.

Over the last hundred and fifty years companies have grown to dominate our economies. The majority of us who are not working for the government, work for a company. Companies have been behind all the major waves of innovation from railways to aeroplanes to the internet. The decisions our companies make are arguably more important than those made by our politicians. In general politicians argue about how to spend money, while companies make the decisions that determine if our economy will grow and in what direction.

Our public debate wrongly assumes that companies blindly follow profit along one path. In reality companies have a wide range of choices and discretion on what to do. They must provide something customers want, but this still leaves a large number of options. Importantly, these decisions all involve a balance between the short- and long-run. Does a company invest money in developing a new product that will take a few years, or increase the advertising spend on existing products with an immediate benefit? Does a company fire staff in a recession to protect profit margins, or retain the staff so that when the economy recovers it will still have sufficient expertise? Does a company invest or return cash to its shareholders?

There is a growing concern that companies in the West are increasingly making decisions that increase short-term profit to the detriment of their long-term success. As a result, investment is falling across Western economies. This is particularly worrying as it is hard to think of something that provides our current high standard of living that is not the result of long-term investment. We have to invest in infrastructure such as roads, railways and energy production. New technologies and medical advances are only achieved by allocating resources to research. Businesses only grow by investing, either to develop new products, increase manufacturing capacity or to break into new markets. And lastly, we only create more productive workers by spending on training and education. Without investment our businesses and hence our economy suffers.

The problem of short-termism in business is becoming more widely acknowledged, and the focus rightly falls on listed companies. These are the companies whose shares are bought and sold on the stock market rather than being privately owned. They are generally the largest companies in our economy, coordinating a significant proportion of our activity and carrying out the bulk of investment. They also support a much larger network of smaller companies such as suppliers, distributors and outsourcers. They are often the coordinating hub at the centre of an industry network.