Steve Morlidge - Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting
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- Book:Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting
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- Publisher:Wiley
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- Year:2010
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It is time to rethink the way businesses organize and run forecasting processes and how they use the insights that they provide to navigate through these turbulent times. This book synthesizes and structures findings from a range of disciplines and over 60 years of the authors combined practical experience. This is presented in the form of a set of simple strategies that any organization can use to master the process of forecasting. The key message of this book is that while no mortal can predict the future, you can take the steps to be ready for it. Good enough forecasts, wise preparation and the capability to take timely action, will help your organization to create its own future.
Written in an engaging and thought provoking style, Future Ready leads the reader to answers to questions such as:
- What makes a good forecast?
- What period should a forecast cover?
- How frequently should it be updated?
- What information should it contain?
- What is the best way to produce a forecast?
- How can you avoid gaming and other forms of data manipulation?
- How should a forecast be used?
- How do you ensure that your forecast is reliable?
- How accurate does it need to be?
- How should you deal with risk and uncertainty
- What is the best way to organize a forecast process?
- Do you need multiple forecasts?
- What changes should be made to other performance management processes to facilitate good forecasting?
Future Ready is an invaluable guide for practicing managers and a source of insight and inspiration to leaders looking for better ways of doing things and to students of the science and craft of management.
Praise for Future Ready
Will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward
Howard Green, Group Controller Unilever PLC
Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one
Bjarte Bogsnes, Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro
A timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement.
Dr. Charles T. Horngren, Edmund G. Littlefield Professor of Accounting Emeritus Stanford University and author of many standard texts including Cost Accounting: A Managerial Emphasis, Introduction to Management Accounting, and Financial Accounting
In the area of Forecasting, it is the best book in the market.
Fritz Roemer. Leader of Enterprise Performance Executive Advisory Program, the Hackett Group
Steve Morlidge: author's other books
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Former CFO, Consultant and Author ofPerformance Dashboards and Analysis for Value Creation
As this book vividly demonstrates through its many case studies, forecasting quality is a life or death issue for organisations of all types, and the current economic turmoil makes strong navigational capabilities all the more critical. Future Ready is therefore a very timely call to action, challenging readers to rethink the many myths and practical flaws which bedevil their current approaches to forecasting and presenting a clear and radical blueprint for future success. This book is immensely readable, deeply practical and unquestionably authoritative drawing on the authors extensive practical experience of leading and reinventing forecasting processes in major corporations and the unique insights derived from their deep academic research. Its rich offering of theory, human and organisational observation, case studies and practical solutions will appeal to all actors in the drama of forecasting, and I would urge business leaders and forecasting practitioners alike to undertake the journey of transformation it advocates so powerfully.
Director of Finance and Investment. NHS London
The business world needs more books like this one! Based on brilliant observations from their deep experience and knowledge of both the business front-line and the business library, Morlidge and Player not only reveals serious problems with current forecasting practices and offer valuable advice and alternatives, they also do so in a uniquely simple and entertaining way. Great analogies and stories are combined with rock solid theory in a language that even the most reading-averse manager will love from page one.
Vice President Performance Management Development at StatoilHydro
and author ofImplementing Beyond Budgeting
In my opinion Player and Morlidge help Business Executives develop a robust and very sound process for decision making in todays hectically fast paced world. This book provides a cornerstone to business success.
Senior Vice President, Business Development, Whoop Inc
Steve Player and Steve Morlidge have produced a must read for CFOs. In these turbulent financial times, effective forecasting is vital to future business success. They have provided the blueprint to guide us to this success.
Chief Financial Officer, VSP Vision Care
This book on forecasting addresses an important topic as executive teams shift their managerial style from after-the-fact reaction to a forward-looking anticipatory planning so that executives, managers, and employee teams can be proactive in making adjustments and resolve small problems before they become big ones.
SAS, Performance Management Solutions
Author ofPerformance Management - Integrating Strategy Execution, Methodologies, Risk and
Analytics
The ability to forecast has always been a precondition for any kind of successful navigation. In todays globally connected, constantly changing and fast evolving world of business, effective forecasting becomes a survival factor for any kind of enterprise. Yet, the discipline of effective business forecasting is still in its infancy - particularly the understanding of how to design and implement effective forecasting in an organization, especially in a larger organization. With Future Ready Steve Morlidge and Steve Player do an excellent job in putting together the pieces required for effective forecasting by integrating the thinking from various disciplines and different communities of thinking and in showing us how a more holistic, integrated approach to forecasting may lead to better enterprise management that is future ready.
Management Advisor and Chief Solution Architect, SAP, and President and Founder,
International Institute of Enterprise Heidelberg
A detailed and thought provoking look at a fundamental area of corporate financial planning.
Provides a clear eyed analysis of an essential business process that many of us dont understand either as well
or as in as much detail as we should.
Moves beyond theory to the mechanics of designing and implementing a genuinely useful forecasting
system.
CFO, Brambles Ltd
Business Forecasting is a process all organizations do, but rarely do they do it well. Other books on the topic typically include complex analytical models that even most PhDs could not understand, or are so simplistic that they are not useful. This book provides a practical and understadable approach that can be put to use immediately. Steve and Steve have an ability to communicate complex concepts in simply lanaguage and provide an approach based real experience working with major corporations and non profits that will allow your organization to better predict future performance. Should be required reading for all executives and Business school students.
Author ofBeyond the Balanced Scorecard
The roller-coaster of the last twelve months shows that this is a timely addition to management thinking. Those of us involved in the dark arts of forecasting know how difficult it can be in practice and that it can make or break the best laid of intentions. More importantly, we know that when done well, great forecasting as a core competency can be a source of competitive advantage in the way companies deploy and optimise the allocation of resources. But, here we have a text that helps shine a bright light on this whole area and it does so in a practical, engaging, and thought provoking way. The deep practical experience of the authors shines through. I can recommend that reading this book will be a good investment of your time and will make a difference to the way you think about forecasting going forward.
Group Controller and SVP Finance Categories, Unilever PLC
Knowing the authors well, I wasnt surprised when I read this thoughtful, well grounded book. But, working in a company that prides itself on its intensely pragmatic approach to business, I was delighted by the simple and straightforward way in which sophisticated ideas have been expressed and the focus on practical application. This combination makes this a book for the executive suite as well as the back office.
Chief Executive of Retailing Services, and former CFO, Tesco PLC.
Future Ready: How to Master Business Forecasting is a timely addition to the growing research on management planning and performance measurement. Criteria for superior practices are developed, including the obtaining organizational alignment and achieving significant benefits at reasonable costs. The experienced authors include specific forecasting cases from actual practice. This book provides a lively description of successful experiences in improving management performance in both planning and control.
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