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Conrad Carlberg - Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies

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When they first told you that forecasting sales would be part of your job, did you feel just the tiniest bit of panic? Did you momentarily consider consulting the Yellow Pages for listings of Psychics or Tea Leaf Readers Well, fear not. Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies can help you predict the future without incense or a crystal ball. Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies shows you how to use the number one workbook program, Microsoft Excel, to predict trends and future sales based on something not quite so ethereal-numbers. You use data about the past to forecast the future. Excel provides all sorts of tools to help you do that, and this book shows you how to use them. From recognizing why forecasting is a good idea to making sense of exponential smoothing, Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies has you covered. If you have a basic grasp of how to use Excel, youll be ready to discover how to Select and use the right forecasting method for your business Choose and arrange data in lists, then manage that data with pivot tables Filter lists and turn them into charts that illustrate whats going on Find relationships in your data Use Excels Analysis Toolpak feature to create forecasts automatically, or venture into advanced forecasts using worksheet functions Gain more control over your forecasting and target specific types of predictions Use moving averages and predict seasonal sales Written by Conrad Carlberg, a nationally recognized expert on Excel who also has experience in sales and marketing, this friendly guide gets you up and running quickly and easily. Youll soon be setting up a baseline you can chart and label, summarizing data with pivot tables, making forecasts based on regression, understanding correlation, and discovering how smoothing lets us profit from our mistakes. Youll find your confidence in your ability to make sales predictions has soared right off the chart.

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Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies by Conrad Carlberg Excel Sales - photo 1
Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies

by Conrad Carlberg

Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies Published by Wiley Publishing Inc 111 - photo 2

Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies

Published by
Wiley Publishing, Inc.
111 River St.
Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774
www.wiley.com

Copyright 2005 by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana

Published by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana

Published simultaneously in Canada

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Legal Department, Wiley Publishing, Inc., 10475 Crosspoint Blvd., Indianapolis, IN 46256, (317) 572-3447, fax (317) 572-4355, e-mail: brandreview@wiley.com .

Trademarks: Wiley, the Wiley Publishing logo, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, A Reference for the Rest of Us!, The Dummies Way, Dummies Daily, The Fun and Easy Way, Dummies.com, and related trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affiliates in the United States and other countries, and may not be used without written permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Wiley Publishing, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book.

LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: The publisher and the author make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this work and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales or promotional materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. This work is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. If professional assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. Neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. The fact that an organization or Website is referred to in this work as a citation and/or a potential source of further information does not mean that the author or the publisher endorses the information the organization or Website may provide or recommendations it may make. Further, readers should be aware that Internet Websites listed in this work may have changed or disappeared between when this work was written and when it is read.

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Library of Congress Control Number: 2005920365

ISBN: 0-7645-7593-7

Manufactured in the United States of America

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About the Author

Conrad Carlberg is the author of more than ten books about Microsoft Excel. As a multi-time recipient of Microsofts MVP designation for Excel, he is a nationally recognized expert on that application.

Carlbergs Ph.D. in statistics involves work in forecasting, as does his work in telecommunications and the health-care industry. He used the techniques in this book to reduce a crushing $24 million inventory owned by a Baby Bell to under $10 million in 18 months. The carrying costs for $24 million in equipment are significant. The point: This forecasting stuff works.

As preparation for starting his consultancy, Carlberg spent two years as a sales engineer for a Fortune 500 company. He lives near San Diego, where he tries his best to keep from crashing into other sailboats.

Dedication

For Joe Frazier, Mike Kobluk, and Chad Mitchell: Show me a pretty little number.

Authors Acknowledgments

I want to thank Kathy Ivens, who suggested my name to Wiley for this book and who has been the best coauthor one could hope for on our prior books; Tom Heine, the acquisitions editor who had the idea for this one; Elizabeth Kuball, the development editor, copy editor, project manager, and coach who has brought the book about; and, of course, the technical editor for this book ladies and gentlemen, give it up for the Excel Trickster, Bob Umlas.

Publishers Acknowledgments

Were proud of this book; please send us your comments through our online registration form located at www.dummies.com/register/ .

Some of the people who helped bring this book to market include the following:

Acquisitions, Editorial, and Media Development

Project Editor: Elizabeth Kuball

Acquisitions Editor: Tom Heine

Technical Editor: Bob Umlas

Editorial Manager: Robyn Siesky

Media Development Supervisor: Richard Graves

Editorial Assistant: Adrienne Porter

Cartoons: Rich Tennant (www.the5thwave.com )

Composition Services

Project Coordinator: Maridee Ennis

Layout and Graphics: Andrea Dahl, Joyce Haughey, Clint Lahnen, Barry Offringa, Lynsey Osborn, Melanee Prendergast, Heather Ryan

Proofreaders: Leeann Harney, Jessica Kramer Carl William Pierce, TECHBOOKS Production Services

Indexer: TECHBOOKS Production Services

Publishing and Editorial for Technology Publishing

Richard Swadley, Vice President and Executive Group Publisher

Barry Pruett, Vice President and Publisher, Visual/Web Graphics

Andy Cummings, Vice President and Publisher, Technology Dummies

Mary Bednarek, Executive Acquisitions Director, Technology Dummies

Mary C. Corder, Editorial Director, Technology Dummies

Publishing for Consumer Dummies

Diane Graves Steele, Vice President and Publisher

Joyce Pepple, Acquisitions Director

Composition Services

Gerry Fahey, Vice President of Production Services

Debbie Stailey, Director of Composition Services

Introduction

Y ou wouldnt have pulled this book off the shelf if you didnt need to forecast sales. And Im sure that youre not Nostradamus. Your office isnt filled with the smell of incense and your job isnt to predict the date that the world will come to an end.

But someone perhaps you wants you to forecast sales, and you find out how to do that here, using the best workbook program around, Microsoft Excel.

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