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Carlton Matthew A. - Probability with Applications in Engineering, Science, and Technology

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Carlton Matthew A. Probability with Applications in Engineering, Science, and Technology
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Probability -- Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions -- Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions -- Joint probability distributions and their applications -- The Basics of Statistical Inference -- Markov chains -- Random processes -- Introduction to signal processing.;This updated and revised first-course textbook in applied probability provides a contemporary and lively post-calculus introduction to the subject of probability. The exposition reflects a desirable balance between fundamental theory and many applications involving a broad range of real problem scenarios. It is intended to appeal to a wide audience, including mathematics and statistics majors, prospective engineers and scientists, and those business and social science majors interested in the quantitative aspects of their disciplines. The textbook contains enough material for a year-long course, though many instructors will use it for a single term (one semester or one quarter). As such, three course syllabi with expanded course outlines are now available for download on the books page on the Springer website. A one-term course would cover material in the core chapters (1-4), supplemented by selections from one or more of the remaining chapters on statistical inference (Ch. 5), Markov chains (Ch. 6), stochastic processes (Ch. 7), and signal processing (Ch. 8--available exclusively online and specifically designed for electrical and computer engineers, making the book suitable for a one-term class on random signals and noise). For a year-long course, core chapters (1-4) are accessible to those who have taken a year of univariate differential and integral calculus; matrix algebra, multivariate calculus, and engineering mathematics are needed for the latter, more advanced chapters. At the heart of the textbooks pedagogy are 1,100 applied exercises, ranging from straightforward to reasonably challenging, roughly 700 exercises in the first four core chapters alone--a self-contained textbook of problems introducing basic theoretical knowledge necessary for solving problems and illustrating how to solve the problems at hand - in R and MATLAB, including code so that students can create simulations. New to this edition Updated and re-worked Recommended Coverage for instructors, detailing which courses should use the textbook and how to utilize different sections for various objectives and time constraints Extended and revised instructions and solutions to problem sets Overhaul of Section 7.7 on continuous-time Markov chains Supplementary materials include three sample syllabi and updated solutions manuals for both instructors and students.

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Springer International Publishing AG 2017
Matthew A. Carlton and Jay L. Devore Probability with Applications in Engineering, Science, and Technology Springer Texts in Statistics 10.1007/978-3-319-52401-6_1
1. Probability
Matthew A. Carlton 1 and Jay L. Devore 1
(1)
Department of Statistics, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA, USA
Probability is the subdiscipline of mathematics that focuses on a systematic study of randomness and uncertainty. In any situation in which one of a number of possible outcomes may occur, the theory of probability provides methods for quantifying the chances, or likelihoods, associated with the various outcomes. The language of probability is constantly used in an informal manner in both written and spoken contexts. Examples include such statements as It is likely that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will increase by the end of the year, There is a 5050 chance that the incumbent will seek reelection, There will probably be at least one section of that course offered next year, The odds favor a quick settlement of the strike, and It is expected that at least 20,000 concert tickets will be sold. In this chapter, we introduce some elementary probability concepts, indicate how probabilities can be interpreted, and show how the rules of probability can be applied to compute the chances of many interesting events. The methodology of probability will then permit us to express in precise language such informal statements as those given above.
1.1 Sample Spaces and Events
In probability, an experiment refers to any action or activity whose outcome is subject to uncertainty. Although the word experiment generally suggests a planned or carefully controlled laboratory testing situation, we use it here in a much wider sense. Thus experiments that may be of interest include tossing a coin once or several times, selecting a card or cards from a deck, weighing a loaf of bread, measuring the commute time from home to work on a particular morning, determining blood types from a group of individuals, or calling people to conduct a survey.
1.1.1 The Sample Space of an Experiment
DEFINITION
The sample space of an experiment, denoted by S, is the set of all possible outcomes of that experiment.
Example 1.1
The simplest experiment to which probability applies is one with two possible outcomes. One such experiment consists of examining a single fuse to see whether it is defective. The sample space for this experiment can be abbreviated as S={ N , D }, where N represents not defective, D represents defective, and the braces are used to enclose the elements of a set. Another such experiment would involve tossing a thumbtack and noting whether it landed point up or point down, with sample space S={ U , D }, and yet another would consist of observing the gender of the next child born at the local hospital, with S={ M , F }.
Example 1.2
If we examine three fuses in sequence and note the result of each examination, then an outcome for the entire experiment is any sequence of N s and D s of length 3, so
  • S={ NNN , NND , NDN , NDD , DNN , DND , DDN , DDD }
If we had tossed a thumbtack three times, the sample space would be obtained by replacing N by U in S above. A similar notational change would yield the sample space for the experiment in which the genders of three newborn children are observed.
Example 1.3
Two gas stations are located at a certain intersection. Each one has six gas pumps. Consider the experiment in which the number of pumps in use at a particular time of day is observed for each of the stations. An experimental outcome specifies how many pumps are in use at the first station and how many are in use at the second one. One possible outcome is (2, 2), another is (4, 1), and yet another is (1, 4). The 49 outcomes in S are displayed in the accompanying table.
First station
Second station
(0, 0)
(0, 1)
(0, 2)
(0, 3)
(0, 4)
(0, 5)
(0, 6)
(1, 0)
(1, 1)
(1, 2)
(1, 3)
(1, 4)
(1, 5)
(1, 6)
(2, 0)
(2, 1)
(2, 2)
(2, 3)
(2, 4)
(2, 5)
(2, 6)
(3, 0)
(3, 1)
(3, 2)
(3, 3)
(3, 4)
(3, 5)
(3, 6)
(4, 0)
(4, 1)
(4, 2)
(4, 3)
(4, 4)
(4, 5)
(4, 6)
(5, 0)
(5, 1)
(5, 2)
(5, 3)
(5, 4)
(5, 5)
(5, 6)
(6, 0)
(6, 1)
(6, 2)
(6, 3)
(6, 4)
(6, 5)
(6, 6)
The sample space for the experiment in which a six-sided die is thrown twice results from deleting the 0 row and 0 column from the table, giving 36 outcomes.
Example 1.4
A reasonably large percentage of C++ programs written at a particular company compile on the first run, but some do not. Suppose an experiment consists of selecting and compiling C++ programs at this location until encountering a program that compiles on the first run. Denote a program that compiles on the first run by S (for success) and one that doesnt do so by F (for failure). Although it may not be very likely, a possible outcome of this experiment is that the first 5 (or 10 or 20 or ) are F s and the next one is an S . That is, for any positive integer n we may have to examine n programs before seeing the first S . The sample space is S={ S , FS , FFS , FFFS , }, which contains an infinite number of possible outcomes. The same abbreviated form of the sample space is appropriate for an experiment in which, starting at a specified time, the gender of each newborn infant is recorded until the birth of a female is observed.
1.1.2 Events
In our study of probability, we will be interested not only in the individual outcomes of S but also in any collection of outcomes from S.
DEFINITION
An event is any collection (subset) of outcomes contained in the sample space S. An event is said to be simple if it consists of exactly one outcome and compound if it consists of more than one outcome.
When an experiment is performed, a particular event A is said to occur if the resulting experimental outcome is contained in A . In general, exactly one simple event will occur, but many compound events will occur simultaneously.
Example 1.5
Consider an experiment in which each of three vehicles taking a particular freeway exit turns left ( L ) or right ( R ) at the end of the off-ramp. The eight possible outcomes that comprise the sample space are LLL , RLL , LRL , LLR , LRR , RLR , RRL , and RRR . Thus there are eight simple events, among which are E 1={ LLL } and E 5={ LRR }. Some compound events include
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