Hershey Brent - 2017 Baseball Forecaster: & Encyclopedia of Fanalytics

RON SHANDLERS 2017

Copyright 2016, USA TODAY Sports Media Group LLC.

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Triumph Books LLC

814 North Franklin Street

Chicago, Illinois 60610

(312) 337-0747

www.triumphbooks.com

Printed in U.S.A.

ISBN: 978-1-62937-309-6

Rotisserie League Baseball is a registered trademark of the

Rotisserie League Baseball Association, Inc.

Statistics provided by Baseball Info Solutions

Cover design by Brent Hershey

Front cover photograph by John Hefti/USA TODAY Sports Images

Author photograph by Kevin Hurley

Ron Shandlers

BASEBALL

FORECASTER

Editors

Ray Murphy

Brent Hershey

A ssociate Edito r

Brandon Kruse

Technical Wizard

Rob Rosenfeld

Design

Brent Hershey

Data and Charts

Matt Cederholm

Player Commentaries

Ryan Bloomfield

Rob Carroll

Matt Cederholm

Matt Dodge

Alec Dopp

Brent Hershey

Brandon Kruse

Ray Murphy

Stephen Nickrand

Kristopher Olson

Greg Pyron

Brian Rudd

Paul Sporer

Jock Thompson

Rod Truesdell

Research and Articles

Patrick Davitt

Ed DeCaria

Matt Dodge

Arik Florimonte

Brad Kullman

Brian Slack

Prospects

Rob Gordon

Jeremy Deloney

Tom Mulhall

Injury Chart

Rick Wilton

Producing the Baseball Forecaster has been a team effort for a number of years now; the list of credits to the left is where the heavy lifting gets done. On behalf of Ron, Brent, and Ray, our most sincere thanks to each of those key contributors.

We are just as grateful to the rest of the BaseballHQ.com staff, who do the yeomans work in populating the website with 12 months of incredible content: Dave Adler, Andy Andres, Matt Beagle, Dan Becker, Alex Beckey, Bob Berger, Chris Blessing, Derrick Boyd, Brian Brickley, Brant Chesser, Doug Dennis, Greg Fishwick, Neil FitzGerald, Brandon Gavett, Sam Grant, Rick Green, Phil Hertz, Joe Hoffer, Scott Holmes, Ed Hubbard, Tom Kephart, Chris Lee, Glenn Lowy, Troy Martell, David Martin, Harold Nichols, Frank Noto, Josh Paley, Joseph Pytleski, Nick Richards, Mike Shears, Peter Sheridan, Skip Snow, Matthew St-Germain, Jeffrey Tomich, Nick Trojanowski, Michael Weddell and Mike Werner.

Thank you to our behind-the-scenes troopers: our technical dynamic duo of Mike Krebs and Rob Rosenfeld.

Thank you to all our industry colleagues, a truly impressive group. They are competitors, but they are also colleagues working to grow this industry, which is never a more evident than at our annual First Pitch Arizona gathering each November.

Thank you to Dave Morgan, Chris Pirrone, Ryan Bonini, and the team at USA Today Sports Media Group.

Thank you for all the support from the folks at Triumph Books and Action Printing.

And of course, thank you, readers, for your interest in what we all have to say. Your kind words, support and (respectful) criticism move us forward on the fanalytic continuum more than you know. We are grateful for your readership.

From Ray Murphy The annual process of constructing this book should be a fire drill, but the great people involved transform it into a symphony. Rob Rosenfelds work on the construction of the player pages sets a tone, much like a double bass. The writers add so much pith in the player commentaries, with the varied yet complementary sounds of a woodwind section. The prospect coverage, the year-long work of our research team, the charts and data slices, all add the oomph of a brass section. Brent and I share the conductors role year-round, which is a testament to Brents boundless patience. Ron may not actually wield the day-to-day baton anymore, but he will always be our original virtuoso. In my other band, the home one, my wife Jennifer is the perfect blend of tag-team partner and co-conspirator, while Grace and Bridget keep bringing the fun.

From Brent Hershey This project always makes me appreciate of the rewards of hard work. To each contributor, thanks for your individual insights, digging and uncovering the raw materials. To Ray, thanks for your willing collaboration as we divide up the assembly processfitting these pieces together into a cohesive unit. Its always a balancing act, and each year we get closer to that mythical centerline. You are a joy to work with. Thanks to Ron, for entrusting us as foremen on this job, and providing additional finishing work when necessary. And to Lorie, Dillon, and Eden: thank you for the after hours delight you each supply, your graciousness, and your strength of support. Our family, too, is building something special.

From Ron Shandler I owe a huge debt of gratitude to Ray, Brent and the entire BaseballHQ family for their continued fine work on this annual project. While we have the process down to a near sciencemilestone-scheduled weekly from July through Novemberit is still a thrill to put all the pieces together and sort out those first projections. Mookie Betts, No. 1? Well, thats exciting!

Thank you to 31 years worth of dedicated readers, who wait for those numbers as anxiously as we do. And thank you to my family who continues to provide unending support. Darielle, Justina, Michele and Sue are changing the world through theatre, music and empathy. They are all doing important work.

Despite some buzz to the contrary, I am not retired even though Ive moved to Florida. I just get to share my office these days with a family of sandhill cranes. A writer has to write; that will never change.

by Ron Shandler

I once spent several years marveling at a certain player whose underlying power metrics screamed 40 home run potential. Forty is a big number, a feat, a milestone reserved for the very best, and this player seemed poised to take that leap.

Yet, for a variety of reasons, he kept falling short. Maybe it was his 60 percent contact rate and periodic sub-.200 batting average. Maybe it was his streakiness.164 one month, .289 the next; .171 another month, .344 the next. Whatever the reason, the magical 40 remained elusive.

He came closest in 2014:

The 2015 Forecaster said, He could be a monster. UP: 45 HRs.

But, the forecasting gods were unkind and 2015 turned out to be a bust. Naturally, our recency bias depressed his 2016 expectations to near nothing. His average draft position ranking (ADP) coming into last season was No. 305, which in real terms meant, Undraftable even in a 13-team mixed league.