Beckwith - Unthinking

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Copyright 2011 by Harry Beckwith

All rights reserved. In accordance with the U.S. Copyright Act of 1976, the scanning, uploading, and electronic sharing of any part of this book without the permission of the publisher constitute unlawful piracy and theft of the authors intellectual property. If you would like to use material from the book (other than for review purposes), prior written permission must be obtained by contacting the publisher at permissions@hbgusa.com. Thank you for your support of the authors rights.

This publication is designed to provide competent and reliable information regarding the subject matter covered. However, it is sold with the understanding that the author and publisher are not engaged in rendering legal, financial, or other professional advice. Laws and practices often vary from state to state and if legal or other expert assistance is required, the services of a professional should be sought. The author and publisher specifically disclaim any liability that is incurred from the use or application of the contents of this book.

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First e-book edition: January 2013

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ISBN 978-0-446-57420-4

Beautifully showcases his strength as a marketer.

Chattanooga Times Free Press (TN)

Amazing. The master of humanistic insights on marketing now turns his attention to American culture. One reference after the next, each insightful on its own, but connecting into a brilliant (and useful) view of the world.

Derek Sivers, Founder, CD Baby

Should not be sold as a bookit should be sold as a secret weapon. Some books are filled with theory. UNTHINKING is filled with gems and a-ha! moments.

Mitch Joel, President, TwistImage; bestselling author of Six Pixels of Separation

Harry Beckwiths insight into the minds of consumers is compelling, engaging, and masterful.

Tony Hsieh, CEO, Zappos.com; bestselling author of Delivering Happiness

Grabbed me from the first page. Harry Beckwith serves up the perfect blend of evidence, deft storytelling, and one useful (and often surprising) tidbit after another.

Robert Sutton , Stanford University professor and bestselling author of Good Boss, Bad Boss

Harry Beckwith is a man of uncommon wisdom who has gotten that way through unthinking. You can, too, by reading this book.

Ty Votaw, Executive Vice President, Communications + International Affairs, PGA TOUR

To Harry, Will, Cole, and Cooper

Welcome.

This is a story about our planets most fascinating subject: us. Its about us and what leads us to choose what we choose, without really thinking. You can find the forces that influence our choices in several places. This book looks into threeour childhoods, our culture, and our eyeswhere we find dozens of surprising stories. They range from the birth of the iPhone to the death of a sex symbol; from the fall of The Mary Tyler Moore Show to the rise of the Nintendo Wii; and from the heights of George Clooney and Regis Philbin to the lengths of the titles of our current best sellers.

Throughout the book, we spotlight the masters of modern marketing and how they tap these forces to influence our choices, ranging from the perfect bleach for our cottons to the best person to check our teeth.

Which leads us first to one of the oddest cases of all: the very strange case of Kobe Bryant.

I n February 2009, the editors of Sports Illustrated asked the players in the National Basketball Association a question to which the editors already knew the answer: With a game on the linewhere one shot will win or lose itwhich player would you choose to take the last shot?

Every basketball fan can guess the players answer: Kobe Bryant, the handsome veteran All Star shooting guard of the world-champion Los Angeles Lakers. The voting wasnt close; 76 percent of the players chose Bryant. In a tie for a remote second place, Denvers Chauncey Billups, Bostons Paul Pierce, and Clevelands LeBron James each won just 3 percent of the votes.

Like basketball fans, Kobes NBA colleagues had seen ESPNs highlights for years, which included over a dozen clips of Bryant making game-winning shots. In crunch time, as fans call these final moments, Kobes chiseled face conveys that any resistance to him will be futile. Thats why fans and players often repeat, Kobe is the Man.

So Kobe was the expected choice, the logical choice, the overwhelming choice; he received more than twenty-five times more votes than each of the three runners-up. There was just one problem:

It was a horrible choice.

We know this because in the 20032004 season, 82games.com started tracking these last-minute shots. Their computations showed that between the start of the 20032004 season and the time of the Sports Illustrated poll, Kobe had made fourteen last-minute shots. Thats a lotmore than two shots per seasonbut three players had made more, most notably James, who had made seventeen.

But the problem with the players choice wasnt that Kobe doesnt make these shots. He does. But as skilled as he is at making them, at that point hed proven even more adept at missing them. Hed missed forty-two: 75 percent of his shots!

For perspective, compare Bryants numbers with those of Carmelo Anthony, the 6-foot-8-inch small forward for the Denver Nuggets. Kobe Bryant looks like a stone killer at crunch time, but Anthony plays like one. In clutch situations in the 20082009 seasonwith a game in the last five minutes or in overtime, with neither team having more than a five-point leadAnthony made 56.5 percent of his shots. Bryant made 45.7 percent.

On three-point attempts, Anthony performed even better, making an amazing 58.5 percent of these attempts, compared to Bryants 40 percent. (The leagues season record for the three-point percentage is 52.4 percent.)

And on game-winning shot attempts with fewer than twenty-four seconds remaining, how did Anthony fare? Again, Melo was mellow: 48.1 percentalmost twice Kobes 25 percent.

Despite what most NBA players thought theyd seen and believed they knew, Kobe Bryant is not a great last-minute shooter. Hes not even an average player in these situations; the NBA last-minute shot average is 29.8 percent. Had Kobe been merely average, the Lakers would have won two more games over that stretch. Had Kobe possessed Anthonys gift in these situations, the Lakers could have won as many as twenty-three additional games