Fisher Kenneth L - Beat the Crowd: How You Can Out-Invest the Herd by Thinking Differently

Fisher Investments Press brings the research, analysis, and market intelligence of Fisher Investments' research team, headed by CEO and New York Times best-selling author Ken Fisher, to all investors. The Press covers a range of investing and market-related topics for a wide audiencefrom novices to enthusiasts to professionals.

Debunkery
How to Smell a Rat
Markets Never Forget (But People Do)
Plan Your Prosperity
The Ten Roads to Riches
The Only Three Questions That Still Count
100 Minds That Made the Market
The Wall Street Waltz
Super Stocks
The Little Book of Market Myths

Own the World by Aaron Anderson
20/20 Money by Michael Hanson

Fisher Investments on Consumer Discretionary
Fisher Investments on Consumer Staples
Fisher Investments on Emerging Markets
Fisher Investments on Energy
Fisher Investments on Financials
Fisher Investments on Health Care
Fisher Investments on Industrials
Fisher Investments on Materials
Fisher Investments on Technology
Fisher Investments on Telecom
Fisher Investments on Utilities

Cover image: City People Set iStock.com/edge69; Multiple silhouettes of business people 4x6/Digital Vision Vectors/Getty Images
Cover design: Thomas Perez

Copyright 2015 by Fisher Investments. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Published simultaneously in Canada.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

ISBN 978-1-118-97305-9 (Hardcover)
ISBN 978-1-118-97306-6 (ePDF)
ISBN 978-1-118-97307-3 (ePub)

True confession: I didnt want to write a preface for this book. Its too darned long already, and I wanted to spare you having to flip one more page. But alas, the powers that be require onewho knew!

Maybe thats fitting, because this is a book I didnt think Id write. I was happy with 10 books. Ten is a round number, and plenty. I didnt think the world needed another Ken Fisher book. But ideas happen! An idea struck during a conversation with my former Wiley editor, Laura Gachko (still with Wiley, no longer saddled with my silly nonsense) and my co-author, Elisabeth Dellingerone thing led to another, and next I knew, I was at it again. Eleven is a fun number, too.

The concept of contrarianism has run through my books since Super Stocks, way back in 1984, but Ive never overtly addressed it. To me, contrarianism has always been about independent thinking, and my books have always demonstrated this (at least, I like to think so). But that fateful December day in 2013, it occurred to us that Id never come out and explained just what the heck contrarianism is, isnt and how to practice it. I realized it was time, since contrarianism is misunderstood and misapplied by manyand unknowingly practiced by some, who might like to know it.

Most assume being contrarian means doing the opposite of what everyone doesif everyone is mostly wrong most of the time, betting the opposite must bring success! Sometimes, thats true. But often not. Opposite-doers have a herd-like mentality, too, and the market loves fooling them as much as it loves fooling the crowd theyre trying to game. Real life isnt herd versus contrarians. Its the mainstream herd, the opposite-doing herd, and the independent thinkersreal contrarians. They see what both herds think, then weigh all extant factorspluses and minusesand reach their own conclusions.

This book is a how-to guide for anyone tired of rules of thumb, media hype and industry mythology and wants to think independently. Its a brain-training guide. Not foolproof! But foolproof doesnt exist. This book simply teaches the thought process that helped me be right more often than wrong for over four decades of money management. You can be right more often than wrong, too!

This book was a team effort. As said above, Laura helped generate the idea and provided early edits before passing the reins to Tula Batanchiev, who edited the lions share along with Judy Howarth and the rest of their team at John Wiley & Sons. Vincent Nordhaus led production at Wiley. Wileys team was diligent and patient as always, and I remain grateful to my excellent agent, Jeff Herman, for leading me to them. Jarred Kriz, Michael Olsen, Lauren Schekman, Eric Harger and Nathaniel Beemanwho have worked with me for yearsalso provided ideas. Thomas Perez designed another cool cover, capturing our theme perfectly. Jessica Wolfe, Chanddeep Madaan, Sam Olson, Michael Leong, Tim Schluter, Brad Pyles and Talia Hosenpud helped with research, while Jarred, Todd Bliman, Jill Hitchcock, Justin Arbuckle and Molly Lienesch weighed in on early drafts and helped steer us toward a sane path. Todd pulled triple duty, editing the entire book for content and shouldering most of Elisabeths workload (and providing her unquantifiable moral support) while she shelved much of her day job of writing for my firm to devote her time to this project. Christopher Wong and Emily Dunbarup-and-coming writers at my firmhelped with copy-edits. Last but not least, Fab Ornani, David Eckerly, Christopher Boaz and Theodore Gilliland led our PR and web marketing. To all of them and anyone I failed to mention hereand to my wife, Sherrilyn, and broad familyI give my deepest thanks.