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David Hackett Fischer - The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History

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    The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History
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David Hackett Fischer, one of our most prominent historians, has garnered a reputation for making history come alive--even stories as familiar as Paul Reveres ride, or as complicated as the assimilation of British culture in North America. Now, in The Great Wave, Fischer has done it again, marshaling an astonishing array of historical facts in lucid and compelling prose to outline a history of prices--the history of change, as Fischer puts it--covering the dazzling sweep of Western history from the medieval glory of Chartres to the modern day. Going far beyond the economic data, Fischer writes a powerful history of the people of the Western world: the economic patterns they lived in, and the politics, culture, and society that they created as a result. As he did in Albions Seed and Paul Reveres Ride, two of the most talked-about history books in recent years, Fischer combines extensive research and meticulous scholarship with wonderfully evocative writing to create a book for scholars and general readers alike.
Records of prices are more abundant than any other quantifiable data, and span the entire range of history, from tables of medieval grain prices to the overabundance of modern statistics. Fischer studies this wealth of data, creating a narrative that encompasses all of Western culture. He describes four waves of price revolutions, each beginning in a period of equilibrium: the High Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and finally the Victorian Age. Each revolution is marked by continuing inflation, a widening gap between rich and poor, increasing instability, and finally a crisis at the crest of the wave that is characterized by demographic contraction, social and political upheaval, and economic collapse. The most violent of these climaxes was the catastrophic fourteenth century, in which war, famine, and the Black Death devastated the continent--the only time in Europes history that the population actually declined.
Fischer also brilliantly illuminates how these long economic waves are closely intertwined with social and political events, affecting the very mindset of the people caught in them. The long periods of equilibrium are marked by cultural and intellectual movements--such as the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the Victorian Age-- based on a belief in order and harmony and in the triumph of progress and reason. By contrast, the years of price revolution created a melancholy culture of despair.
Fischer suggests that we are living now in the last stages of a price revolution that has been building since the turn of the century. The destabilizing price surges and declines and the diminished expectations the United States has suffered in recent years--and the famines and wars of other areas of the globe--are typical of the crest of a price revolution. He does not attempt to predict what will happen, noting that uncertainty about the future is an inexorable fact of our condition. Rather, he ends with a brilliant analysis of where we might go from here and what our choices are now. This book is essential reading for anyone concerned about the state of the world today.

David Hackett Fischer: author's other books


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Praise for The Great Wave

This years best book for investors.... Too often, historical perspective on Wall Street means going back a decade or two. Mr Fischer instead traces inflation data from medieval times forward, finding evidence of repeated long patterns of rising prices, followed by long periods of stability. In the process he demolishes some theories of what causes inflation... the thesis is both believable and fascinating, and so is the book. Floyd Norris, New York Times annual survey of books in business and economics, 22 December 1996

Very persuasive... a major work that deserves the attention of all historians. Nancy Gordon, History, Spring 1997

Economists can read this book with interest and profit.... Fischer is a consummate stylist and meticulous in his attention to details. Rondo Cameron, Journal of Economic Literature, Fall, 1997

Phenomenal scope and erudition.... Fischers history of inflation is a thoroughly good read. He should send the Treasury a copy. Mark Archer, The Sunday Telegraph, 16 March 1997

Fascinating reading. Fischer is no sensationalist trying to crank out a pseudo-economic best-seller, but a serious economic historian... a book worth chewing on and digesting. Barton Biggs, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Investment Perspectives, July 9, 1997

Important.... Fischers scholarship is admirable. Larry Elliott, The Guardian, 4 March 1997

Superbly written... youll never glare at a price tag in quite the same way again. Kay Davidson, San Francisco Examiner, 19 February 1997

Informative and compelling.... A panoramic view of the role of prices and the pernicious effects of inflation down through the ages. Stanley W. Angrist, Wall Street Journal, 19 December 1996

A brilliant, bold analysis of the relationship between economicsthe prices of thingsand human welfare over 800 years.... It also allows us to observe an audacious and prodigiously learned historians mind at work. William McFeely, Boston Globe, 17 Nov. 1996

Sumptuous in detail, charming in prose and provocative in implications... Historians will contrive careers out of Fishers data. Andrew Allentuck, Toronto Globe and Mail 14 Dec. 1996

A provocative and thoughtful tour through history. The Economist, 19 July 1997

This is a fascinating book; it is also an important one.... Fischer succeeds in demonstrating that there are recurrent waves of price revolutions in human history.... His is a powerful piece of historical analysis and ought to become part of everyones framework of understanding. William Rees-Mogg, New Statesman and Society, 14 March 1997

The best explanation for the wild gyrations at the heart of todays popular culture Ive yet seen. Nathan Greenfield, Ottawa Citizen, May 4, 1997

Similar to more popular and populist works that spring up like daffodils and last about as long.... The Great Wave, in contrast, is the real thing, backed by solid research, not the authors political leanings.... Fischers work offers a cautionary story that is readily understandable and surprisingly compelling. Bill Peschel, The Herald, Feb 16, 1997

Intriguing.... Mr. Fischer looks at a thousand years of European history, and documents with fascinating detail long periods of rising prices that are accompanied by social upheaval and even war, followed by long periods of stable prices accompanied by social calm. Alan Murray, Wall Street Journal, 10 February 1997

Important.... combining vivid narrative with shrewd dissections of quantitative evidence... He has described the past and present in ways that inspire interesting questions and offer novel insights into our condition. Can a historian make a finer contribution? Thomas Archdeacon, New York Times Book Review, 5 January 1997

Delightful... truly a delightful book.... Fischers insights, thought-provoking hypotheses, and engaging writing style make The Great Wave a book worthy of our attention. Dudley Poston, Sinet, August, 1997

Wise, worthy, and mostly convincing... the strength of Fischers narrative is the way he manages to intertwine details of everyday life and familiar aspects of history with the complex story of the economic underpinnings of the times. Alan Earls, Boston Book Review

Fischer is nothing if not an expert storyteller. He has an unerring instinct for the main narrative line; he decorates with an abundance of detail... his book lays out with gentlemanly thoroughness the great questions that fairly leap out of the numbers. David Warsh, Boston Globe

Tantalizing.... A bold thread coursing through the weave of eight centuries of economic history. William P. Kucewicz, Markets, April 1997

Fascinating... detailed familiarity with Fischers ground-breaking book, and responses to the difficult questions it raises ought to be required of any investment manager claiming knowledge of the future path of inflation. Malcolm Mitchell, Investment Policy, July-August, 1997

Very readable... in an interesting and informative way, the author reminds us of the real consequences that economic policy has in each persons life. Michael Wald, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, April 1997

Meticulously assembled price records from Mesopotamia to the modern day... the conclusion is optimistic. Edward Whitehouse, Financial Times, London, June 5, 1997

Informative and readable... Fischer combines a lively narrative with cogent analysis and sound advice. Essential for scholarly collections, this fine book will also be appreciated by lay readers. David Keymer, Library Journal November 1, 1996

Fascinating historical facts and anecdotes... avoids the fog that obscures much academic writing. David R. Francis, Christian Science Monitor, 24 April 1997

Fischer is well known for providing new insights into important but seemingly commonplace topics. This he does again in The Great Wave. William L. Urban, Magill Book Reviews, 1997

Absorbing narrative... economic theorists have long suggested that economic events are cyclic. But in Fischers discerning analysis there have been four great price revolutions in western history. David Rouse, Booklist, October 1, 1996

A bold overview of how ordinary men and women have been protagonists in a drama that was (in retrospect) nothing less than the modernization of economic life. Robert Heilbroner, Civilization, 1996

Fascinating.... Although his main purposeand greatest contributionis to describe price revolutions, Fischer also takes a stab at explaining why they occur. he boldly declares some preeminent scholars to be embarrassingly wrong. No economist or historian will agree with everything he says. Many will vehemently disagree. But most will learn a great deal. Lexington Herald-Leader, January 26, 1997

Monumental... History shows that periods of deflation can be periods of prosperity, too. Heres a strategy for investing in an era of prosperous deflation. Evidence? David H. Fischers monumental history of price movements, The Great Wave. Thomas Easton, Forbes Magazine, November 16, 1998

THE GREAT WAVE

Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History

David Hackett Fischer

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