Ian Easton - The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwans Defense and American Strategy in Asia

Unthinkable? Think again. Ian Easton has done a remarkable job taking the PRC at their word. Using PLA manuals and publications, this Project 2049 Institute study shows that China is prepared to invade, intimidate or interdict. This is a scholarly work which most China hands would like to overlook. No longer can they do so. Well done, Mr. Easton.

Ambassador Richard Armitage, former Deputy Secretary of State

Argues persuasively that the risks of conflict in the Taiwan Strait lurk on the horizon. Persuasive and in places controversial, Mr. Easton sets out the case that armed conflict has not been made irrelevant in the Western Pacific even with the closer economic ties between China and Taiwan. An unsettling but necessary read for students of Asia.

Dr. Kurt M. Campbell, former Assistant Secretary of State for Asian Affairs

Ian Easton has done an enormous amount of research in both Chinese and Taiwanese sources about a potential military conflict across the Taiwan Strait. While I disagree with many of his assertions ... I found myself interested in his citations and often challenged by his assertions. Whether you agree with his conclusions or not, it is worth reading this serious examination of the reality of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Admiral Dennis Blair (USN, ret.), former Director of National Intelligence and Commander of U.S. Pacific Command

Calls attention to threats in plain sight but overlooked by our policy makers and strategists. Taiwan, a vigorous democracy at the confluence of the contested East and South China Seas ... exists under often-declared threat. It is the most consequential political and military challenge of our times.

Lt. General Wallace Gregson (USMC, ret.), former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Commander Marine Forces Pacific

A comprehensive and insightful treatment of one of the most significant geopolitical military challenges facing the United States ... a conflict over Taiwan has the potential to explode as the PRC grows in economic and military power. Ian Easton sheds light on a potential reality that we must be well prepared to handle.

Lt. General David A. Deptula (USAF, ret.), former Commander Pacific Command Air Component and Chief of U.S. Air Force Intelligence

A powerful and thought-provoking study helping policy makers as well as experts reshape their perceptions and analysis ... in an ever changing and dire Taiwan Strait. It is a must-read book for those who hold power to protect Taiwan as a beacon of democracy.

Andrew Nien Dzu Yang, former Minister of National Defense, Taiwan (ROC)

An extremely readable and informative text describing the most dangerous, destructive, and least likely option in the Taiwan Strait ... clearly illustrates why deterrence of such an event should be Taiwans and Americas primary objective in cross-strait relations.

Dennis J. Blasko, author of The Chinese Army Today

While much of the world has forgotten the importance of Taiwan to the peace and stability of the Asia Pacific region ... Mr. Eastons well-sourced and clearly enunciated work reminds us all of the likelihood and cost of war and the price of freedom.

Captain James Fanell (USN, ret.), former Pacific Fleet Director of Intelligence

14 possible landing beaches, 4 weeks of permissive weather twice a year, and 1,000 individual targets for air strikes in the run-up to an invasion. These are some of the facts and figures readers will take away from this unique and indispensable trove of insights into the PLAs preparations.... This is an authoritative expos of the PRCs offensive plans.

Jacqueline N. Deal, President, Long Term Strategy Group

The threat is not the threat itself. The real threat is the connection between the threats.... How to obtain a clear picture? The author crafts a detailed roadmap for the audience to discover. Bravo Zulu!

Admiral Richard YK Chen (ROCN, ret.), former Commander of the Navy and Vice Minister of National Defense, Taiwan (ROC)

In this carefully researched and forcefully argued study, Ian Easton draws on a wide range of Chinese-language sources from both sides of the Taiwan Strait to describe how a conflict there might start, how it would likely be fought and how it might end ... explains why the outcome would matter to the United States and how, through a mix of measured diplomacy and prudent military preparations, deterrence can be maintained and peace preserved.

Aaron Friedberg, author of A Contest for Supremacy, Professor at Princeton University

This book is a Must Read for China watchers and Asia strategists alike. Ian Eastons impressive research analyzes one of the most dangerous flashpoints in Asia.... It makes a powerful case for deterrence and for changes in U.S. and Taiwan force posture to deal with this looming contingency.

Evan Medeiros, former National Security Council Senior Director for Asian Affairs and Special Assistant to President Obama

THE CHINESE INVASION THREAT

Published by Eastbridge Books, an imprint of Camphor Press Ltd
83 Ducie Street, Manchester, M1 2JQ
United Kingdom

Cover image by Wendell Minnick, showing Taiwanese frogmen practicing beach infiltration tactics.

www.project2049.net

www.eastbridgebooks.com

Copyright 2017 Ian Easton

All rights reserved. This book or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of the publisher except for the use of brief quotations in a book review. E-book edition published by Camphor Press in 2017.

The moral right of the author has been asserted.

For Mia, Kelly, and Grace

The following book will not use the military term D-Day to refer to the notional day on which a Chinese invasion operation was launched against Taiwan. Any practice of making allusions to Operation Overlord and the June 6, 1944, Normandy landings would almost certainly be detrimental to the person reading. Americans and other English-speaking peoples view D-Day as a glorious and magnificent moment in human history. The term D-Day, while sometimes used more broadly by military experts, is associated with strong positive emotions and would be inappropriate for discussing the subject at hand.

This book will instead refer to the date of a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan as Zero Day (or Z-Day). This term will designate the day of the invasion operation, since it has not yet been determined by Chinese war planners, or is secret. Z-Day will be used in combination with numbers and plus and minus signs to indicate points of time before or after operations are initiated. For example, Z-Day minus five (Z-5) would mean five days before Zero Day, and Z-Day plus five (Z+5) would mean five days after Zero Day. This term, Z-Day, was used by Winston Churchill when discussing the date of a potential Nazi invasion of England, an operation Adolf Hitler planned to launch in 1940, but aborted after the Battle of Britain resulted in a decisive English victory.