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Amy B. Zegart - Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence

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A riveting account of espionage for the digital age, from one of Americas leading intelligence experts
Spying has never been more ubiquitousor less understood. The world is drowning in spy movies, TV shows, and novels, but universities offer more courses on rock and roll than on the CIA and there are more congressional experts on powdered milk than espionage. This crisis in intelligence education is distorting public opinion, fueling conspiracy theories, and hurting intelligence policy. In Spies, Lies, and Algorithms, Amy Zegart separates fact from fiction as she offers an engaging and enlightening account of the past, present, and future of American espionage as it faces a revolution driven by digital technology.
Drawing on decades of research and hundreds of interviews with intelligence officials, Zegart provides a history of U.S. espionage, from George Washingtons Revolutionary War spies to todays spy satellites; examines how fictional spies are influencing real officials; gives an overview of intelligence basics and life inside Americas intelligence agencies; explains the deadly cognitive biases that can mislead analysts; and explores the vexed issues of traitors, covert action, and congressional oversight. Most of all, Zegart describes how technology is empowering new enemies and opportunities, and creating powerful new players, such as private citizens who are successfully tracking nuclear threats using little more than Google Earth. And she shows why cyberspace is, in many ways, the ultimate cloak-and-dagger battleground, where nefarious actors employ deception, subterfuge, and advanced technology for theft, espionage, and information warfare.
A fascinating and revealing account of espionage for the digital age, Spies, Lies, and Algorithms is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the reality of spying today.

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SPIES LIES ALGORITHMS SPIES LIES ALGORITHMS THE HISTORY AND FUTURE OF - photo 1

SPIES,LIES,ALGORITHMS

SPIES,LIES,ALGORITHMS

THE HISTORY AND FUTURE OF AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE

AMY BZEGART

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS

PRINCETON & OXFORD

Copyright 2022 by Amy B. Zegart

Princeton University Press is committed to the protection of copyright and the intellectual property our authors entrust to us. Copyright promotes the progress and integrity of knowledge. Thank you for supporting free speech and the global exchange of ideas by purchasing an authorized edition of this book. If you wish to reproduce or distribute any part of it in any form, please obtain permission.

Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to

Published by Princeton University Press

41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540

6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR

press.princeton.edu

All Rights Reserved

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Zegart, Amy B., 1967 author.

Title: Spies, lies, and algorithms : the history and future of American intelligence / Amy B. Zegart.

Description: Princeton ; Oxford : Princeton University Press, [2022] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2021011926 (print) | LCCN 2021011927 (ebook) | ISBN 9780691147130 (Hardback : acid-free paper) | ISBN 9780691223087 (ePub)

Subjects: LCSH: Intelligence serviceUnited States. | Cyber intelligence (Computer security)United States. | TerrorismGovernment policyUnited States. | Public-private sector cooperationUnited States.

Classification: LCC JK468.I6 Z418 2022 (print) | LCC JK468.I6 (ebook) | DDC 327.1273dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021011926

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021011927

Version 1.0

British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available

Editorial: Bridget Flannery-McCoy, Alena Chekanov

Jacket Design: Derek Thornton

Production: Erin Suydam

Publicity: James Schneider, Kathryn Stevens

Copyeditor: Elizabeth J. Asborno

For my children: Alexander, Jack, and Kate

and

For Craig, always

CONTENTS
  1. ix
  2. xi
  3. xiii
TABLES
FIGURES
ABBREVIATIONSACRONYMS

AI

artificial intelligence

BJP

Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian political party)

CIA

Central Intelligence Agency

COVID-19

Coronavirus disease of 2019

DCI

director of central intelligence

DIA

Defense Intelligence Agency

DNI

director of national intelligence

DOD

Department of Defense

FBI

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Five Eyes

Intelligence partnership between the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand

FOIA

Freedom of Information Act

GDP

gross domestic product

GEOINT

geospatial intelligence

GPS

global positioning system

HPSCI

House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

HUMINT

human intelligence

IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency

IARPA

Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity

IC

Intelligence Community, a collection of eighteen U.S. federal agencies

INR

State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research

INTs

intelligence missions and disciplines

IRA

Russias Internet Research Agency

ISIS

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria

JCS

Joint Chiefs of Staff

JSOC

Joint Special Operations Command

KGB

The Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti, or the Committee for State Security (the Soviet Unions spy agency)

KSM

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed

MI5

Military Intelligence Section 5 (U.K. agency)

MI6

Military Intelligence Section 6 or the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) (U.K. agency)

MICE

money, ideology, coercion/compromise, and ego

MID

Military Intelligence Division (later known as the Armys G-2)

NASA

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NCAA

National Collegiate Athletic Association

NCRI

National Council for the Resistance of Iran

NCTC

National Counterterrorism Center

NGA

National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

NIE

National Intelligence Estimate

NRO

National Reconnaissance Office

NSA

National Security Agency

ODNI

Office of the Director of National Intelligence

OPEC

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

OPM

Office of Personnel Management

OSINT

open-source intelligence

OSS

Office of Strategic Services

RT

Russia Today

SAPs

special access programs

SAR

Synthetic Aperture Radar (enables satellite imaging in cloudy conditions)

SATs

Structured Analytic Techniques

SCIFs

Sensitive Compartmented Information Facilities, or Skiffs

SEALs

Sea, Air, and Land (Naval Special Warfare combat forces)

SIGINT

signals intelligence

SSCI

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

UN

United Nations

WMD

weapons of mass destruction

SPIES,LIES,ALGORITHMS

INTELLIGENCE CHALLENGES IN THE DIGITAL AGE

CLOAKS, DAGGERS, AND TWEETS

IN JUNE 2014, I was scrolling through my Twitter feed when I came across the following Tweet:

At first I thought it was a joke The Central Intelligence Agency CIA is - photo 2

At first, I thought it was a joke. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is notoriously secretiveso shadowy, even its public affairs officers dont always tell you their names. But the Tweet was real. Americas cloak-and-dagger agency had finally joined the social media age. The Internet went wild. Who knew?they have a sense of humor, reported CNN.

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