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Paul Starobin - After America: Narratives for the Next Global Age

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Paul Starobin After America: Narratives for the Next Global Age
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Farsighted and fascinating predictions for a new world order in which America is no longer number one
The world is now at a hinge moment in its history, according to veteran international correspondent Paul Starobin. A once-dominant America has reached the end of its global ascendancy, and the question of what will come next, and how quickly, is not completely clear. Already the global economic crisis, in exposing the tarnished American model of unfettered free-market capitalism, is hastening the transition to the next, After America, phase of global history.
According to Starobin, the After America world is being driven less by virulent anti- Americanism than by Americas middling status as a social, economic, and political innovator; by long-wave trends like resurgent nationalism in China, India, and Russia; and by the growth of transnational cultural, political, and economic institutions. While what is going to come next has not been resolved, we can discern certain narratives that are already advancing. In this sense, the After America age is already a work in progress-pregnant with multiple possibilities.
In this book, which masterfully mixes fresh reportage with rigorous historical analysis, Starobin presents his farsighted and fascinating predictions for the After America world. These possibilities include a global chaos that could be dark or happy, a multipolar order of nationstates, a global Chinese imperium, or-even more radically-an age of global city-states or a universal civilization leading to world government. Starobin feels that the question of which narrative will triumph may be determined by the fundamental question of identity: how people determine their allegiances, whether to the tribe, nation-state, city-state, or global community.
There will be surprises, Starobin thinks. In the After America world, both the nation-state and the traditional empire may lose ground to cosmopolitan forces like the city- state and the universal civilization. California-the eighth largest economy in the world and the most future- oriented place in America-is becoming an After America landscape, as illustrated by postnational, multicultural Hollywood. Prestigious educational institutions like Harvard are migrating from an American to a global identity and thus becoming part of an After America universal civilization. While these changes may feel unsettling, our best hope for adapting to an After America world is by becoming better borrowers of the best ideas and practices developed all around the planet.
Thought provoking and well argued, After America offers a way to think about a dramatically changing world in which the United States is no longer number one. Starobins tone is sober but in the end hopeful-the age After America need not be a disaster for America, and might even be liberating.

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Table of Contents
VIKING Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group USA Inc 375 Hudson - photo 1
VIKING
Published by the Penguin Group
Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street,
New York, New York 10014, U.S.A.
Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700,
Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4P 2Y3
(a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.)
Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England
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(a division of Penguin Books Ltd)
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Victoria 3124, Australia
(a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd)
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Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices:
80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England

First published in 2009 by Viking Penguin,
a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc.


Copyright Paul Starobin, 2009
All rights reserved

Grateful acknowledgment is made for permission to reprint an excerpt from Muse des Beaux Arts from Collected Poems by W. H. Auden. Copyright 1940 and renewed 1968 by W. H. Auden. Used by permission of Random House, Inc.

While the author has made every effort to provide accurate telephone numbers and Internet addresses at the time of publication, neither the publisher nor the author assumes any responsibility for errors, or for changes that occur after publication. Further, the publisher does not have any control over and does not assume any responsibility for author or third-party Web sites or their content.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Starobin, Paul.
After America: life after the American century / by Paul Starobin.
p. cm.
Includes index.
eISBN : 978-1-101-05650-9
1. United StatesCivilization1945- 2. United StatesForeign relations2001
3. International relations21st century. I. Title.

E169.12.S737 2009
973.91dc22
2008046685

Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher of this book.

The scanning, uploading, and distribution of this book via the Internet or via any other means without the permission of the publisher is illegal and punishable by law. Please purchase only authorized electronic editions and do not participate in or encourage electronic piracy of copyrightable materials. Your support of the authors rights is appreciated.

http://us.penguingroup.com

For Samuel and Deora: Seek Truth Always.
And indeed there is a serious criticism here, to any one who knows his
tory; since the things that grow are not always the things that remain; and
pumpkins of that expansiveness have a tendency to burst. I was always
told that Americans were harsh, hustling, rather rude and perhaps vul
gar; but they were very practical and the future belonged to them. I con
fess I felt a fine shade of difference; I liked the Americans; I thought they
were sympathetic, imaginative, and full of fine enthusiasms; the one thing
I could not always feel clear about was their future. I believe they were
happier in their frame-houses than most people in most houses; having
democracy, good education, and a hobby of work; the one doubt that did
float across me was something like, Will all this be here at all in two
hundred years?
A visitor from England, G. K. Chesterton, in What I Saw in America , 1922
Prologue
High Tide: August 1991, Moscow
The crowd flooded onto Lubyanka Ploshad, one of central Moscows immense public squares, named for the fortresslike building that served as the headquarters of the KGB. It was a spontaneous gathering of at least ten thousand, perhaps as many as fifteen thousand, and it included rowdy, drunken young men as well as elderly pensioners. Night was falling and the mood was celebratory. A desperate attempt by leaders of the KGB to take power in a coup had ended in failure, and everyone could sense that the Soviet Union itself might not have much longer to live. Soviet monuments all around Moscow were under physical assault, and this group had gathered at one of the most infamous of them all: Iron Felix, a giant fifteen-ton bronze statue of Felix Dzerzhinsky, the founder of the Cheka, the original Soviet secret police. Iron Felix stood upright in an unbuttoned military overcoat, hands in pockets and head uncovered, and he gazed away from the Lubyanka and down the boulevard leading to the Bolshoi Theatre. Beyond the Bolshoi lay Red Square, containing Lenins Tomb, and the massive brick walls and tall towers of the Kremlin. Iron Felix had been a fixture of Moscow for more than thirty years. He was unveiled on an afternoon in December of 1958, in a formal ceremony led by then Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev. The Kremlins advance team had arranged for a representative selection of scientists, doctors, artists, manual workers, and schoolchildren to be on hand, and the assemblage placed flowers on Iron Felixs granite pedestal. The twilight descended on the city, but the people stay, Pravda duly reported, bringing in their hearts great love to the fearless knight of the proletarian revolution. This was at the height of the cold war, one year after the Soviets had launched Sputnik, the worlds first satellite. Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you! My vas pokhoronim! So Khrushchev told a group of Western ambassadors at a reception in Moscow.
Now, on a summer evening thirty-three years later, a crowd had come to bury Iron Felix. His pedestal had already been defaced with inscriptions like antichrist and bloody executioner, and the crowd shouted epithets like hangman! Somebody had scrawled swastikas on the Lubyanka. Although the building was dark, the curtains inside were seen to twitch: Armed guards were in place to resist any effort to storm the place. Several men scaled Iron Felix and draped wire ropes around his neck and arms. Others applied a blow-torch to the brass rods securing him to the monuments base. The idea was to attach the ropes to a truck and pull down Iron Felix in a resounding crash. But Moscow city officials, who had rushed to the square on getting word of the gathering, begged the crowd to resist. The officials understood the popular desire to shatter totalitarianism, as one later put it, but they were worried that a toppled Iron Felix could rip a gaping hole in the square and possibly harm the demonstrators as well. They bargained with the crowd, promising to send for a crane to take Iron Felix away safely.
After several hours, two cranes arrived. As legend has it, one of them came from a construction site at the U.S. embassy, a few miles away on the Garden Ring road. According to one version of the tale, American officials at the embassy happily offered use of the crane for such an agreeable purpose as getting rid of Iron Felix. According to a second version, it was actually the leaders of the Lubyanka Ploshad crowd who somehow managed on their own to snatch the crane from the embassy site. None of these stories was true: A Moscow city official at the scene borrowed both cranes from an Austrian businessman using them for a hotel construction project. The legend, though, was understandable, because the American superpower was widely believed to have a hand in everything happening to bring an end to the Soviet regime. President George H. W. Bush had strongly associated America with the street hero of the moment, Boris Yeltsin, who three days earlier had stood on a tank outside the Russian parliament building to denounce the coup plotters. Appreciative Muscovites had filed past the American embassy chanting, Bush! Bush! Yeltsin! Bush!
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