Shigeki Matsuda - Low Fertility in Japan, South Korea, and Singapore: Population Policies and Their Effectiveness

The world population is expected to expand by 39.4% to 9.6 billion in 2060 (UN World Population Prospects, revised 2010). Meanwhile, Japan is expected to see its population contract by nearly one third to 86.7 million, and its proportion of the elderly (65 years of age and over) will account for no less than 39.9% (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in Japan, Population Projections for Japan 2012). Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional phase and will be the fastest-shrinking country in the world, followed by former Eastern bloc nations, leading other Asian countries that are experiencing drastic changes.

A declining population that is rapidly aging impacts a countrys economic growth, labor market, pensions, taxation, health care, and housing. The social structure and geographical distribution in the country will drastically change, and short-term as well as long-term solutions for economic and social consequences of this trend will be required.

This series aims to draw attention to Japans entering the post-demographic transition phase and to present cutting-edge research in Japanese population studies. It will include compact monographs under the editorial supervision of the Population Association of Japan (PAJ).

The PAJ was established in 1948 and organizes researchers with a wide range of interests in population studies of Japan. The major fields are (1) population structure and aging; (2) migration, urbanization, and distribution; (3) fertility; (4) mortality and morbidity; (5) nuptiality, family, and households; (6) labor force and unemployment; (7) population projection and population policy (including family planning); and (8) historical demography. Since 1978, the PAJ has been publishing the academic journalJinkogaku Kenkyu(The Journal of Population Studies), in which most of the articles are written in Japanese.

Thus, the scope of this series spans the entire field of population issues in Japan, impacts on socioeconomic change, and implications for policy measures. It includes population aging, fertility and family formation, household structures, population health, mortality, human geography and regional population, and comparative studies with other countries.

This series will be of great interest to a wide range of researchers in other countries confronting a post-demographic transition stage, demographers, population geographers, sociologists, economists, political scientists, health researchers, and practitioners across a broad spectrum of social sciences.

More information about this subseries at http://www.springer.com/series/13101

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

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Low fertility is a demographic phenomenon which first occurred in Northern/Western Europe and was subsequently observed globally across a wide range of developed and emerging countries. Currently, fertility rates in many Northern/Western European countries are relatively stable, while those in Asian developed economies have dropped to the lowest levels worldwide. Total fertility rate of less than about 1.5 is classified as very low fertility, and less than about 1.3 is classified as lowest-low fertility. Japan belongs to the very low fertility category, while South Korea and Singapore belong to the lowest-low fertility classification.

In Europe, low fertility is regarded as a part of a series of demographic changes known as the second demographic transition. However, the character of fertility in Asia differs from Europes demographic transition. Cohabitation and children born to single mothers are not widespread demographics because the marriage system is not fluctuating in Asia. For this reason, an increase in the unmarried population tends to lead to a decrease in the birth rate. In addition, the number of children couples have is decreasing. Moreover, a critical factor is that the demographic change in Europe is driven by the shift in individuals values from material needs (such as economic security) to post-materialism (such as freedom of expression, self-realization, and autonomy). However, in Asia, similar changes in values have not yet occurred or, at least, values changing to post-materialism have not led to a decline in fertility. These demographic differences and motivating factors of the change in fertility rates in Asia and Europe depend on the differences in cultural background and their periods of modernization, as well as the unique social background of each country.

Such low fertility rates may cause a future labor shortage, weaken the social security system, and undermine social and economic stability in Asia, although the economic development in these countries has been remarkable so far. In Japan, the total population began to decline in the late 2000s due to a persistently low birth rate. In recent years, the population has decreased by about 200,000 per year, and low fertility has had a serious impact on the real economy. That low fertility brings about a decrease in the countrys population and economic stagnation is not limited to Japan. Other Asian countries that experienced low fertility later than Japan will likely suffer from similar negative effects of it in the near future. Therefore, countries need to implement countermeasures against low fertility to restore their fertility rates to sustainable levels.