Nikolai Botev - The Sexuality-Reproduction Nexus and the Three Demographic Transitions: An Integrative Framework

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This monograph outlines an integrative framework that conceptualizes the role of relations of control in human reproduction and long-term population dynamics. It draws on population studies, especially the demographic transition theory, on sexuality studies and Foucaults concept of bio-power and sexuality as a key to social control, on cognate concepts and theories, and on findings from demography, anthropology, archeology, and other disciplines. The framework is based on the premise that four demographic regimes can be identified over the course of human history. They are defined by the primary locus and modus of control over reproduction, with regulating sexuality being a proxy for that control over much of human history. The hypothesis is that the locus of control has moved from kin/group control during the paleo regime, via social control by rigidly regulating sexuality, mostly through the institution of marriage, during the patriarchal regime, to individual control made possible by effective contraception, freer expression of sexuality and changing gender roles in the contemporary regime, and is likely to move to a combination of individual control over coital reproduction and social control over non-coital reproduction during the assisted reproduction regime.

The framework questions some of the basic postulates in population studies, including how demographic transitions are interpreted and whether prehistoric population growth was close to zero. It promotes an integrative approach to population dynamics and emphasizes the importance of understanding the deeper historical roots and evolutionary underpinnings of demographic trends and patterns. After all, human reproduction has been shaped since the origin of the human lineage millions of years ago. Basing our theories about reproduction (and sexuality) on just the last couple of decades (or a couple of centuries at most) is likely to generate an incomplete picture and miss the implications of evolved mechanisms on the realities of contemporary life (the particular front-loaded age profile of fecundity in women and menopause are good examples of such evolved mechanisms that have salient implications for fertility and the life course).

Some of the ideas outlined in the monograph were conceived in the 1980s and 1990s, when early in my career in the population field I was fascinated by the classical demographic transition theory, but also started to ponder over its limitations. A long gestation period followed, which took me and the nascent ideas through the halls of the Palais des Nations in Geneva, the buzz of Midtown Manhattan, the serenity of the steppes and mountains of Central Asia, the heat of the Horn of Africa, and then back to the heart of Europe, with many encounters and much cross-fertilization in the process. Such a long gestation period hopefully resulted in a precocial newborn, i.e., one that is fully fit for life, even though just like human infants it would benefit from supportive alloparenting (especially in the form of help in testing the hypotheses and assumptions underlying the integrative framework outlined here, and in further developing the ideas behind it).

Continuing the birthing and parenting allusions, I need to acknowledge the many individuals who contributed to the DNA of the ideas outlined in this monograph. These include numerous co-workers and colleagues at the Demographic Research Laboratory of the former Higher Institute of Economics in Sofia, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), as well as national and other counterparts with whom I had a chance to interact, exchange ideas, and learn from. I am indebted to all of them, even though they are too many to list here by name. Dilyana Boteva-Boyanova and Raiko Krauss were the first to comment on early drafts of the manuscript. Elwood Carlson provided useful comments on a version presented at the 2018 European Population Conference. Daniel Botev helped with Figure 1. I benefited also from the comments and suggestions of the anonymous reviewers. Special thanks to Springer Nature, and especially Evelien Bakker, Senior Publishing Editor, and Bernadette Deelen-Mans, for encouraging me to develop further the ideas outlined in this monograph.