Robin Leichenko - Climate and Society: Transforming the Future

robin leichenko

karen obrien

polity

Copyright Robin Leichenko and Karen OBrien 2019

The right of Robin Leichenko and Karen OBrien to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First published in 2019 by Polity Press

Polity Press

65 Bridge Street

Cambridge CB2 1UR, UK

Polity Press

101 Station Landing

Suite 300

Medford, MA 02155, USA

All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-8438-3

ISBN-13: 978-0-7456-8439-0(pb)

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Leichenko, Robin M., author. | OBrien, Karen L., author.

Title: Climate and society : transforming the future / Robin Leichenko, Karen OBrien.

Description: Cambridge ; Medford, MA : Polity, 2019. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2018046807 (print) | LCCN 2018051795 (ebook) | ISBN 9780745684420 (Epub) | ISBN 9780745684383 (hardback) | ISBN 9780745684390 (pbk.)

Subjects: LCSH: Climatic changes--Social aspects.

Classification: LCC QC903 (ebook) | LCC QC903 .L45 2019 (print) | DDC 304.2/5--dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018046807

Typeset in 9.5pt on 13pt Swift

by Fakenham Prepress Solutions, Fakenham, Norfolk NR21 8NL

Printed and bound in the UK by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon

The publisher has used its best endeavours to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate.

Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition.

For further information on Polity, visit our website: politybooks.com

IPCC reasons for concern

Great Acceleration lines for Earth system trends

Great Acceleration lines for socioeconomic trends

The fraction of time that the Holocene epoch represents in Earth history

Global mean temperatures over time

Global temperature map

Temperature deviations from normals for Australia

Ten indicators of a warming world

The greenhouse effect

The Keeling Curve

Contributions to observed surface temperature changes

Radiative forcing of CO2 and other gases

IPCC projections under different emissions scenarios

The carbon budget

A simplified version of the Bretherton diagram

Earthrise (Apollo 8), December 24, 1968

Five levels of social consciousness

Myths of nature and cultural theory

Schwartzs theory of basic human values

The Politics of Snow

Rising sea levels: One prediction of where rising sea levels will end up at Cottesloe Beach, Perth, Western Australia

Dear Climate posters

Annual CO2 emissions by country, 2016, in million tonnes (Mt)

Annual CO2 emissions per capita by country, 2016, in tonnes (t)

The environmental Kuznets curve

Global value chain of Nutella

Percentage of CO2 emissions by world population

Carbon intensity of eating and footprints by diet type

Carbon footprint of Costa Rican coffee supply chain

Energy sources over time

Global greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector

Energy return on investment

Consumption of lighting

Arctic region showing oil and gas reserve basins assessed by the USGS

Potential climate change impacts

Climate change and projected agricultural yields

National vulnerability map

Vulnerability diagram

Map of response capacity in districts in India

Food security

Climate change and health

Map of deaths from vector-borne disease

Air-conditioning rates

Flexible adaptation pathways

Linear and non-linear change

Three spheres of transformation

Planetary boundaries

Four types of climate change discourses

Ten largest firms globally in 2017

Probability of exceeding global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise scenarios in 2100, based on IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Uninsured disaster losses by region in 2017

Reasons for concern about climate change

Climate change over geological time

Weather versus climate

Extreme weather and climate change

Radiative forcing and global warming potential

Global carbon budget

Earth-system science and the Bretherton diagram

Skepticism and the politicization of scientific information

Imagining climate futures: Looking forward and back through film

Decoupling national growth from emissions

Accounting for missing and hidden emissions

Carbon inequalities

Coffee and climate change

Paradox of rising energy efficiency

The geopolitics of energy in the Arctic

Do the math!

Climate change impacts on agriculture

Climate change, wildfires, and forest ecosystems: Reverberating impacts

Mapping spatial vulnerabilities

Human security and human rights

Adaptation, history, and evolution

Costbenefit analysis and discount rates

Should we save Tangier Island?

Exploring your own role in transformations to sustainability

Green growth and green economies

Climate activism among youth

We received tremendous support in writing this book from students, collaborators, family, friends, and colleagues. In particular, we thank the undergraduate students in Robin Leichenkos Climate Change and Society course at Rutgers University and Karen OBriens Environment and Society course at the University of Oslo for their patience, suggestions, and good humor as we tested different topics and ideas in our lectures and seminars and discovered what resonated with them, challenged them, and frustrated them. We also thank them for their recommendations about how to make the chapters more accessible, relevant, and meaningful from a students perspective. We hope that the resulting book is engaging and empowering, and that it inspires both critical reflection and transformative action.

We are grateful to Emma Longstaff (formerly at Polity) for her early encouragement and support of the project and to Jonathan Skerrett at Polity for guiding the book to completion. We thank Coleen Vogel and numerous anonymous reviewers for valuable comments on the original prospectus and draft manuscripts. At Rutgers, Khai Hoan Nguyen gave valuable feedback on every chapter and pilot tested many of the books illustrative examples when she served as a teaching assistant in the course. Former PhD students Peter Vancura, Adelle Thomas, Mark Barnes, and Ally Sobey helped with development of the course syllabus and lecture materials. Robin also benefited from many discussions with current and former graduate students, colleagues, and collaborators, including Katya Bezborodko, Mike Brady, David Eisenhauer, Ana Mahecha Groot, Melanie McDermott, Katy Ryan, and Julie Silva. At the University of Oslo, Ann Kristin Schorre, Linda Sygna, and Leonie Goodwin provided research assistance and support, and seminar leaders Irmelin Gram-Hanssen, Gail Hochachka, Milda Nordb Rosenberg, and Sadik Qaka contributed ideas, feedback, and suggestions on the course material and text. Karen is also grateful to researchers Kirsten Ulsrud and Morgan Scoville-Simonds for chapter comments, and to Dan Jesper Lagerman and Sasha Stoliarenko for valuable feedback on the manuscript. Karen also benefited from discussions and ideas shared by PhD students in the Oslo Summer School in Comparative Social Science Studies courses on Climate Change Adaptation and Transformations towards Sustainability.