Ivy Zelman - Gimme Shelter: Hard Calls + Soft Skills From A Wall Street Trailblazer

Copyrighted Material

Gimme Shelter

Copyright 2021 by Ivy Zelman. All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any meanselectronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwisewithout prior written permission from the publisher, except for the inclusion of brief quotations in a review.

For information about this title or to order other books and/or electronic media, contact the publisher:

Aspen Gray Publishing, LLC

www.aspengraypublishing.com

ISBNs:

978-1-7377099-0-9 (hardcover)

978-1-7377099-2-3 (softcover)

978-1-7377099-1-6 (digitalKindle)

Editorial: Stuart Horwitz, Book Architecture

Interior Design: 1106 Design

Cover Design: Taj Gaines

Author Photograph: Clint Calder

This memoir is a truthful recollection of actual events in the authors life. The events, places, and conversations in this memoir have been recreated from memory, however the chronology of some events has been compressed. When necessary, the names and identifying characteristics of individuals and places have been changed to maintain anonymity and to respect their privacy. Some conversations have been recreated and/or supplemented.

Although the publisher and author have made every effort to ensure that the information in this book was correct at press time and while this publication is designed to provide accurate information in regard to the subject matter covered, the publisher and the author assume no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions, or any other inconsistencies herein. The publisher and author hereby disclaim any liability to any party for any loss, damage, or disruption caused by errors or omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any other cause.

The publisher and the author make no guarantees concerning the level of success individuals may experience by following the advice and strategies contained in this book. The testimonials and examples provided in this book show exceptional results, which may not apply to the average reader, and are not intended to represent or guarantee that individual readers will achieve the same or similar results.

This book is dedicated to:

Zoey, Zach and Zia, who inspire me every day and who I love beyond words.

David Zelman, for believing in me from the start.

My mom and dad who love me unconditionally.

Malinda Grinage, my soul mate, who I miss every day.

Ally Wesley, my palsy forever and ever.

Kim Gray, Dennis McGill, Alan Ratneryou are my closest inner circle and I am beyond grateful to have you in my life.

And a special thank you to:

Jeanette McMurtry, for encouraging me to write this book.

Stuart Horwitz, my book editor, who put up with my endless changes without ever showing his frustration.

The Walker & Dunlop Team: Susan Weber, Chris Zegal, Addy Burr, Madison Bridges, Taj Gaines and Matt Cabral.

Foreword

by Steve Eisman

Senior Portfolio Manager, Neuberger Berman

I first started talking to Ivy Zelman a few years before the great financial crisis. She was a sell-side analyst at Credit Suisse covering home builders, and from the start it was clear that she was unusually gifted. Most sell-side analysts are timidtoo scared to make a negative call on their sector because they fear management will cut them off. Also, if an analyst makes a negative call on their sector and they are wrong, it is often a career-ending event.

Ivy, on the other hand, has guts. She made a negative call on the home builders way before the financial crisis began and took a lot of flak for it, at least at first. Of course, she was eventually proven correct, but it was not easy. For that she has my deepest respect.

I have been in the investing business for a long time, both on the sell side and the buy side. Ivy is one of the most remarkable analysts I have ever come across. She can both pick stocks and produce original research, which is a very unusual combination.

Her unique perspective on our world of Wall Street shines through the pages of Gimme ShelterI know youre going to enjoy it.

Preface

You Can Handle
Anything

W hen I first set out to write this book, I was driven by a desire to share the story of how I succeeded on Wall Street against the odds, in the hopes that an honest and open account would prove helpful to young adults pursuing their dreams with the same determination I felt so many decades ago. While that is certainly still my aim, I have sold a controlling interest in the firm I founded since first putting pen to paper. I am thrilled that through the new partnership with Walker & Dunlop and their incredible platform, I have secured the legacy that I worked so hard to build. The shift renewed my urgency to finish this project; arriving at such a significant milestone in my career made chronicling what went into getting to this point take on a new poignancy.

When I decided to leave my secure job at Credit Suissea large bulge bracket Wall Street firmto start my own research boutique, I underestimated the amount of work it would take to accomplish the successful transition. That didnt matter though; I was powered by excitement and passion. I couldnt turn my brain off, so I often found myself up at three oclock in the morning in those early days, drawing from pure adrenaline to fire on all cylinders. With the help of my husband, David, and Dennis McGill, my cofounder, as well as a handpicked team of others I trusted equally as much, we began to build the business piece by piece. Its all a blur looking back, as I hammered out the logistics of launching a new business while traveling constantly and raising three kids under the age of seven to boot. I was undoubtedly overwhelmed, but I was also thrilled beyond reason.

At the time we launched Zelman & Associates, the housing crisis was unfolding. My team and I had called the top of the market in 2005, and we opened our doors in October of 2007, just months after the housing market had officially begun its crash in March of that same year. Every morning, David and I would scour the Wall Street Journal trying to absorb the latest in the series of disasters happening in the financial world. The scale of the crisis taking shape was shocking, but it was exhilarating to know that our new firm was on center stage. We had instant credibility from being right about the massive risk in the housing market, but we also knew youre only as good as your last trade and so we remained focused on the future. Our goal was to help our clients navigate the turbulence and forecast how and when the housing market would recover.

And thats exactly what we did. We called the bottom of the market in January 2012 and proceeded to introduce timely thematic research on the single-family rental market in 2011Leasing the American Dreamand outlined how mortgage credit would return to normal in Great Unwind, our April 2014 publication. Zelmans comprehensive reports, along with our monthly and quarterly surveys, provided our institutional and corporate partners the insight necessary to make strategic investments and manage their stock portfolios. Now, nearly fifteen years later, I have found the right partner to carry my vision yet further as we aim to broaden our end market beyond Wall Street by capitalizing on Walker & Dunlops leading commercial real estate platform. I cant help but pause here to take a deep breath, my first in many years, and reflect on how I got here.