Robert S Ross - China in the Era of Xi Jinping: Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges

Chinas New Leadership in Domestic and International Politics

JO INGE BEKKEVOLD AND ROBERT S. ROSS

In 2010 China surpassed Japan to become the worlds second-largest economy. Based on the purchasing-power-parity valuation (PPP) of a countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Chinas economy even surpassed the US economy in 2014. Based on nominal figures, Chinas economy is still less than 60 percent of the size of the US economy, but by 2019 it is estimated it will be 70 percent of the size of the US economy.

Chinas rise has been impressive, but it has also created challenges for the Chinese leadership, in both its domestic and foreign policies. China needs wise and mature leadership as never before. November 2012 witnessed Chinas second orderly power succession, when Xi Jinping replaced Hu Jintao as the general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and chairman of the Central Military Commission at the Eighteenth Party Congress. Whereas Jiang Zemin and the late Deng Xiaoping retained leadership of the Central Military Commission, Hu Jintaos retirement from all leadership posts enabled a smoother power transition and a stronger mandate for Xi Jinping. In March 2013 Xi formally ascended to the Chinese presidency and Li Keqiang became premier. Xi and Li have been chosen to captain the Chinese ship through 2022.

The Third Plenum of the Central Committee frequently provides the opportunity for Chinas new leadership to announce its policy priorities in a formal way. This was the case with Xi Jinping. At the Third Plenum of the Eighteenth Central Committee in November 2013, Xi signaled his economic policy preferences regarding the balance of state and market. He also announced the establishment of two new high-level policy coordination institutions, one for overseeing economic reform policies and one for enforcing security policies. Xi Jinping is heading both of these new institutions, which gives him a solid platform for launching his policy agenda. Xi Jinping has emerged as a leader who is stronger than his recent predecessors.

The three most urgent and interrelated domestic challenges faced by Chinas new leaders are: sustaining economic growth, fighting corruption, and maintaining social stability. Hu Jintao and former premier Wen Jiabao addressed the domestic challenges created by Chinas successes, but with only mixed results. At the National Peoples Congress held in March 2007, Wen acknowledged that Chinas economy was still unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable. Over time these challenges have become more acute, and the next ten years will be critical for China. If Chinas economy continues to expand at 6 to 8 percent annual growth, China will most likely surpass the United States growth rate within the next ten to twenty years and eventually become the worlds largest economy. This scenario, however, will depend on a reform of Chinas economic model. If Xi Jinping wants to deliver on his China Dream, he and his lieutenants will have to exercise strong leadership and make bold decisions.

Chinas new leadership is also responsible for steering the Chinese ship in international waters. As a consequence of Chinas rise, this has become an increasingly challenging task. Chinas growth has increased expectations at home for a tougher stance in international affairs. Simultaneously, Chinas increasing capabilities and its evolving policies have created increasingly larger waves across the international system. Under Hu Jintaos leadership, Chinas rise and its nationalist diplomacy elicited increased apprehension among its neighboring countries and contributed to greater US efforts to consolidate its presence in Asia. What can we expect from China as a foreign policy actor in the coming decade? Foreign policy is often an extension of domestic policies and domestic structures. Does the Chinese leadership have a clear vision or grand strategy for utilizing Chinas emerging position as a global powerhouse? What is the Chinese worldview? Does the Chinese leadership view the world through lenses shaded by revisionist ideas or through lenses with a vision of China finding its rightful place as a great power within the current international order? How well will the new leadership handle growing nationalism, as influenced by Chinas patriotic education campaign and an outspoken and influential debate over Chinas foreign policy, which is currently taking place within Chinas Internet society?

Now that Xi has been secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and president of China for well over three years, we can develop an assessment of his policy priorities and his leadership abilities. The contributors to this volume take a close look at Chinas new generation of leaders and explore the challenges facing the new leadership, as it relates to both reforms at home and Chinas role in the wider world.