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Ian Bremmer - Superpower: three choices for the next America

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Ian Bremmer Superpower: three choices for the next America
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A LSO BY I AN B REMMER Every Nation for Itself Winners and Losers in a - photo 1

A LSO BY I AN B REMMER

Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World

The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?

The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing (with Preston Keat)

The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall

Managing Strategic Surprise: Lessons from Risk Management and Risk Assessment (with Paul Bracken and David Gordon)

New States, New Politics: Building the Post-Soviet Nations (with Raymond Taras)

Nations and Politics in the Soviet Successor States (with Raymond Taras)

Soviet Nationalities Problems (with Norman Naimark)

Superpower three choices for the next America - image 2

PORTFOLIO / PENGUIN

Published by the Penguin Publishing Group

Penguin Random House LLC

375 Hudson Street

New York, New York 10014

Superpower three choices for the next America - image 3

USA | Canada | UK | Ireland | Australia | New Zealand | India | South Africa | China

penguin.com

A Penguin Random House Company

First published by Portfolio / Penguin, an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House LLC, 2015

Copyright 2015 by Ian Bremmer

Penguin supports copyright. Copyright fuels creativity, encourages diverse voices, promotes free speech, and creates a vibrant culture. Thank you for buying an authorized edition of this book and for complying with copyright laws by not reproducing, scanning, or distributing any part of it in any form without permission. You are supporting writers and allowing Penguin to continue to publish books for every reader.

ISBN 978-0-698-17639-3

Cover design: Pete Garceau

Cover image: zentilia / Thinkstock

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T O W ILLIS

Introduction

We are our choices.

Jean-Paul Sartre

A merica will remain the worlds only superpower for the foreseeable future. But what sort of superpower should it be? What role should America play in the world? What role do you want America to play?

Some say the time has come for the United States to mind its own business, let other countries solve their own problems, and focus instead on rebuilding Americas strength from within. Others insist that Washington can and should pursue an ambitious foreign policy, but one designed solely to make America more secure and more prosperous, not to foist our political and economic values on others. Still others say the world needs leadership and that only America can provide it. They argue that Americans and everyone else will be better off if democracy, freedom of speech, access to information, and the rights of the individual are universally respected.

What do you think? To help you decide, have a go at the following ten questions. Choose the single answer that best represents your opinion.

1. Freedom is:

a. The right of every human being.

b. Fragile. Americans must protect it right here at home.

c. In the eye of the beholder.

2. America is:

a. Exceptional because of what it represents.

b. Exceptional because of all it has done for the world.

c. Not an exceptional nation. America is the most powerful, but that doesnt mean its always right.

3. Which of these statements best expresses your opinion?

a. America will be better off if we mind our own business and let other countries get along the best they can.

b. America must lead.

c. The primary purpose of U.S. foreign policy should be to make America safer and more prosperous.

4. China is:

a. Americas greatest challenge and greatest opportunity.

b. The place where too many American jobs have gone.

c. The worlds largest dictatorship.

5. Americas biggest problem in the Middle East is that:

a. Washington supports the regions dictators rather than its people.

b. Washington ignores small problems until they turn into big ones.

c. Washington believes it can manage an unmanageable region.

6. U.S. spy capabilities:

a. Will always be a double-edged sword.

b. Threaten our privacy.

c. Are vital for protecting America.

7. The primary responsibility of the president of the United States is:

a. To advance U.S. interests at home and abroad.

b. To promote, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.

c. To lead.

8. Which of the following best expresses your view?

a. A great leader can change the world.

b. A great leader must lead by example.

c. In the real world, any leader must often choose the least bad of many bad options.

9. Which is the most at risk?

a. Americas economy.

b. Americas international reputation.

c. The respect of our leaders for Americas founding principles.

10. I hope that by the year 2050:

a. America will share the burdens of leadership with reliable, like-minded allies.

b. Americans will have created a more perfect union at home.

c. American leadership will have helped as many people as possible around the world topple the tyrants who deny them the freedom they deserve.

Well come back to these questions in the conclusion, and I promise to tell you exactly what I believe and why I believe itand Ill refer back to this quiz at the end of . But this book is about what you think. Whether youre an American or the proud citizen of another country, I want to know what role you believe the worlds only superpower should play in our world. If you finish the book with a strong opinion, especially if its a bit different than the one you have at this moment, and even if its the opposite of mine, this book will have served its purpose.

Im proud to be a political scientist, one who takes seriously his responsibility to offer unbiased analysis. Im also intensely proud to be an American. You should know that right at the top. Among my ancestors are men and women from Armenia, Italy, Syria, Germany, and the Native American tribes that made their way across Central Asia, the Bering Strait, and the great North American plains. I grew up in the projects of Chelsea, Massachusetts, where I felt completely at home on my mainly Puerto Rican Little League baseball team, in my heavily Italian high school, and among the mainly Anglo middle-class kids I knew in my Junior Achievement group. Beyond the melting pot, my patriotism is an inevitable product of my childhood. My father died when I was four. My mother raised me and my brother with little help, little money, and unshakable confidence that a good education and a lot of hard work would give me the chance to invent my own future.

Because I love my country, I feel a responsibility to honor its virtues and accomplishments and to think and write about its shortcomings. I also care very much about Americas place in the worldwhat it is, what it could be, and what it should be. I want my country to find the courage to help others solve problems and the wisdom to avoid creating new ones. I also love a debate. Not the ones where politicians preen and bob and weave while pundits tally up their applause lines and verbal stumbles. I love debates in which brave and sincere men and women take up serious subjects in hopes of opening new doors onto undiscovered country. Thats the kind of debate America needs right now.

Parts of this book are centered on international turmoil and our world in transitionEuropean fears, Russian ambitions, Middle East dangers, and Chinese riddles. But as youll see, its not about big global trends that Americans cant control: the rise and fall of nations, emerging-world economics, or a disintegrating global order. Nor is it about blame for past mistakes. Its about Americas role in tomorrows world and the choices we must begin to make as the next round of presidential candidatesRepublicans, Democrats, and maybe a wild card or twoask us for money, support, and our votes.

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