Adam J. Berinsky - In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq (Chicago Studies in American Politics)

chicago studies in american politics

A series edited by Benjamin I. Page, Susan Herbst, Lawrence R. Jacobs, and James Druckman

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The University of Chicago Press chicago & london

Adam J. Berinsky is associate professor of political science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London 2009 by The University of Chicago All rights reserved. Published 2009 Printed in the United States of America

18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 1 2 3 4 5

isbn- 13: 978- 0- 226- 04358- 6 (cloth)

isbn- 13: 978- 0- 226- 04359- 3 (paper) isbn- 10: 0- 226- 04358- 4 (cloth) isbn- 10: 0- 226- 04359- 2 (paper)

Library of Congres s Cataloging-in-Publication Dat a

Berinsky, Adam J., 1970 In time of war : understanding America n public opinion from World War II to Iraq / Adam J. Berinsky .

p. cm. (Chicago studies in America n politics ) Includes bibliographical references and index . isbn-13: 978-0-226-04358-6 (cloth: alk. paper ) isbn-13: 978-0-226-04359-3 (pbk.: alk. paper ) isbn-10: 0-226-04358-4 (cloth: alk. paper ) isbn-10: 0-226-04359-2 (pbk.: alk. paper )

War and societyUnited States. 2. Worl d War, 19391945United StatesPubli c opinion. 3. Korean War, 19501953Unite d StatesPublic opinion. 4. Vietnam War , 19611975United StatesPublic opinion .

Iraq War, 2003Public opinion. I. Title .

II. Series: Chicago studies in American politics . hm554.b475 200 303.6'60973dc2

2008053228

o The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information SciencesPermanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ansi z39.48- 1992.

To Deirdre, Benjamin, and Lil a

List of Figures / i x List of Tables / xi i Acknowledgments / x v

Introduction: America at War / 1

part i. historical perspective Public Opinion and War: A Historical Perspective / 13 The Myths and Meaning of Public Opinion and World War II / 33

part ii. the structure of support for war The Calculation of Costs: An Innocent Public / 61 Partisan Structure of War Support: Events, Elites, and the Public / 85 Ethnic Groups: Attachments, Enmities, and Support for War / 127

part iii. public opinion and war: back to the waters edge Civil Liberties and War / 155 Elections during Wartime / 178

Conclusions / 207 appendix a: Description of Data and Weighting / 222 appendix b: Iraq War Casualty Survey Analysis / 229 appendix c: Congressional Record Content Analysis / 234 appendix d: Statistical Significance of Ethnic Variables / 246 appendix e: Relationship between Support for War and Support

for Restricting Civil Liberties / 251 appendix f: NES Analysis of Retrospective War Support / 256

Notes / 265 References / 309 Index / 327