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World Bank Group - Global Economic Prospects, June 2017

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World Bank Group Global Economic Prospects, June 2017
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Global activity is firming broadly as expected. Manufacturing and trade are picking up, confidence is improving, and international financing conditions remain benign. Global growth is projected to strengthen in 2018-19, in line with January forecasts. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), growth is predicted to recover in 2017-19, as obstacles to growth in commodity exporters diminish amid moderately rising commodity prices, and activity in commodity importers remains robust. Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. These include increased trade protectionism; elevated economic policy uncertainty; the possibility of financial market disruptions; and, over the longer term, weaker potential growth. A policy priority for EMDEs is to rebuild monetary and fiscal space that could be drawn on were such risks to materialize. Over the longer term, structural policies that support investment and trade are critical to boost EMDE productivity and potential growth.

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More information about the Banks environmental philosophy can be found at http://crinfo.worldbank.org/wbcrinfo/node/4.

A World Bank Group Flagship Report JUNE 2017 Global Economic Prospects A - photo 1

A World Bank Group Flagship Report

JUNE 2017

Global Economic Prospects

A Fragile Recovery

2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank - photo 2

2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank

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Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org

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This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

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AttributionPlease cite the work as follows: World Bank Group. 2017. Global Economic Prospects, June 2017: A Fragile Recovery. Washington, DC: World Bank. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1024-4. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO

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ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1024-4

ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1026-8

DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1024-4

Cover design: Bill Pragjuski (Critical Stages).

The cutoff date for the data used in this report was May 24, 2017.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments

Abbreviations

Chapter 1

Global Outlook: A Fragile Recovery

Summary

Major economies: Recent developments and outlook

Global trends

Emerging market and developing economies: Recent developments and outlook

Risks to the outlook

Policy challenges

References

Box 1.1 Low-income countries: Recent developments and outlook

Box 1.2 Regional perspectives: Recent developments and outlook

Special Focus 1

Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Time to Act?

Introduction

Evolution of fiscal positions

Fiscal positions in episodes of financial stress

Conclusion

References

Special Focus 2

Arms-Length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness

Introduction

Characteristics of intra-firm and arms-length trade

Evolution of intra-firm and arms-length trade since the crisis

Factors contributing to the sharp post-crisis slowdown in arms-length trade

Conclusion

References

Chapter 2

Regional Outlooks

East Asia and Pacific

Recent developments

Outlook

Risks

Europe and Central Asia

Recent developments

Outlook

Box 2.2.1 Reversal in 2016 of diverging growth paths

Risks

Latin America and the Caribbean

Recent developments

Outlook

Box 2.3.1 Continued growth divergence within Latin America and the Caribbean

Risks

Middle East and North Africa

Recent developments

Outlook

Risks

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