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Faucher Colette - Risk and Cognition

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Faucher Colette Risk and Cognition

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Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
Jean-Marc Mercantini and Colette Faucher (eds.) Risk and Cognition Intelligent Systems Reference Library 10.1007/978-3-662-45704-7_1
1. Introduction
Jean-Marc Mercantini 1
(1)
Laboratoire Des Sciences de LInformation et Des Systmes, Domaine Universitaire de Saint Jrme, Avenue Escadrille Normandie-Niemen, 13397 Marseille Cedex 20, France
Jean-Marc Mercantini
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Abstract
The introduction chapter is a discussion about the title of the book. Why having associated the concepts of Risk and Cognition? What are the implications of this association? The responses to these questions have strong consequences on how to apprehend critical problems that emerge (or could emerge) within various activity domains. The chapter presents the two concepts of risk and cognition, and it highlights and analyses relations linking them. The complexity of the risk concept is tackled via historical, ontological and conceptual approaches. The cognition concept is defined and the filiation bonds between Cognition, Cognitive Science, Cognitive Engineering and Knowledge Engineering are presented. The set of cognition concepts defines a coherent field of interdisciplinary knowledge (scientific, methodological and technical), which provides operational tools for the analysis and the design of complex systems (or organizations) where risks are prominent.
The acceleration of the human activity evolution in a context of globalization, open markets, and scientific and technical progress, leads to in-depth changes of modern societies, and is responsible for increasingly complex situations. These situations may involve the cooperation and the collaboration of individuals from diverse cultures (e.g. social background, professional background, academic background, nationality) as well as the cooperation and the collaboration of individuals with intelligent machines. In parallel to the acceleration of these changes, modern societies show an increased aversion to the new risks that emerge from professional, domestic and leisure activities. In this context, risk situations inherit this complexity and they may be considered to be the results of deviations from expected behaviours of systems, which involve humans, technical components, organizations and a specific environment. Their apprehension and mastery require understanding the human behaviours (individual or group basis) facing risks, and their study requires therefore mobilizing behavioural sciences, social sciences, life sciences and engineering sciences. The objective of this introduction chapter is to present the risk and cognition concepts and to highlight and analyse relations linking them. The first part of the chapter aims to identify the contours of the risk concept. The literature review highlights a concept of great complexity being the subject of a large number of research works in a variety of disciplines such as philosophy, psychology, sociology, economics, mathematics and engineering sciences. This strong mobilization of sciences is consistent to the growing anxieties of modern societies facing a future full of uncertainties and unknowns, and the feeling of not having the necessary tools for its control. Each of these disciplines brings different and complementary views of the risk concept, revealing different aspects of its complexity and its links with cognition. The second part of the chapter is dedicated to the concept of cognition as well as to sciences that study it and take it into account to design and build new systems more efficient and smarter. On one hand, considering the relationships linking the concepts of risk and cognition and, on the other hand, considering the operational tools proposed by cognitive engineering for designing and developing systems, it is possible to envisage new systems where risks may be considered as natural phenomena, and may be taken into account in the early stages of the design process, to provide these systems with capabilities for anticipation, adaptation and resilience. The third part of the chapter presents the topics covered by this book and the way they are treated by the authors. Each chapter is described by a short abstract that gives a preview of the tackled problems and implemented methodologies to elaborate coherent solutions.
1.1 Complexity of the Risk Concept
1.1.1 Overview and Definitions
If the term risk is old and commonly used nowadays by everyone, the concept of risk comes from the probability theory, an axiomatic system derived from game theory in France in the seventeenth century [].
1.1.1.1 The Origins of the Term
The term risk appeared in Occident in the twelfth century. The first text that demonstrates its use is dated of the 4th April 1248 and concerns the maritime insurance field []: debet dicta navis in mari ad meum risicum et fortunam de omni casu.
The etymological origin of the word is not well known and linguists are not unanimous. Among many hypotheses, three origins seem to gather the largest adhesions and may be considered []:
The Latin etymology, from the verb secare (to cut) in reference to hazardous marine reefs that could cut the ships hull,
The Arab etymology, from the word rizq meaning fortuitous and unexpected gift (from God). The rizq can be good or bad,
The Roman etymology, from the verb rixicare (to quarrel, to fight) where running a risk means, Pursue a dangerous and random quarrel.
With the Arab etymology, the risk is governed by god in a religious context, and with the latin etymology, the risk is under human control in an economical context.
1.1.1.2 The Origins of the Concept
The probability theory has its roots in the sixteenth century with the analysis of games of chance by Gerolamo Cardano and in the seventeenth century with Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal, which are universally recognized as the founders of probability theory through the correspondence they exchanged in 1654. The first publication on a risk theory was the work of Daniel Bernoulli in: Specimen theoriae novae de mensura sortis (1738), where risk is defined as the mathematical expectation of a probability function of events. This definition is still widely used for quantitative risk assessment.
1.1.1.3 The Risk as an Applied Science
In the course of 1960, the environmentalist movement grows and spreads in the United States marking an increasingly deep distrust of society in respect to the development of new technologies such as nuclear. This is the first major loss of confidence that occurs between the lay public and experts. The lay public is convinced that experts minimize risk and experts blame the lay public to exaggerate []. These analyses became essential for the development and management of industrial projects.
This opposition process between the lay public and experts refers us to the work of Reinhart Koselleck [].
1.1.1.4 The International Standard about Risk Management
This international standard [] describes in detail the process of risk management of any organization (any private or public company, any community, any association, any group or individual), on the basis of principles that have to be applied to make this process more effective. It applies throughout the life cycle of an organization, in all its activities and for any type of risk. The proposed generic approach provides principles and guidelines for managing any kind of risk in a systematic, transparent and reliable manner.
1.1.1.5 Definitions
Risk is a polymorphic concept that has been a focal topic of many disciplines, professional activities, and practical actions. Ortwin Renn in [] where risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives. Where an effect is a deviation from the expected (positive and/or negative) and objectives can have different aspects (such as financial, health and safety, and environmental goals) and can apply at different levels (such as strategic, organization-wide, project, product and process).
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