Mark Burles - Chinese policy toward Russia and the Central Asian Republics

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title	:	Chinese Policy Toward Russia and the Central Asian Republics
author	:	Burles, Mark.
publisher	:	RAND
isbn10 | asin	:	083302731X
print isbn13	:	9780833027313
ebook isbn13	:	9780585225395
language	:	English
subject	China--Foreign relations--Russia (Federation) , Russia (Federation)--Foreign relations--China, China--Foreign relations--Former Soviet republics, Former Soviet republics--Foreign relations--China.
publication date	:	1999
lcc	:	DS740.5.R8B87 1999eb
ddc	:	327.51047
subject	:	China--Foreign relations--Russia (Federation) , Russia (Federation)--Foreign relations--China, China--Foreign relations--Former Soviet republics, Former Soviet republics--Foreign relations--China.

Page i The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-96-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Burles, Mark, 1970- . Chinese policy toward Russia and the Central Asian Republics / Mark Burles. p. cm. "Prapared for the United States Air Force by RAND's Project AIR FORCE." "MR-1045-AF." Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2731-X 1. ChinaForeign relationsRussia (Federation). 2. Russia (Federation)Foreign relationsChina. 3. ChinaForeign relationsFormer Soviet republics. 4. Former Soviet republics Foreign relationsChina. I. RAND Corporation. II Title. DS740.5. R8B87 1999 327.51047dc21 99-21022 CIP RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Copyright 1999 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org

Page ii Project AIR FORCE Chinese Policy Toward Russia and the Central Asian Republics Mark Burles Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited RAND

Page iii Preface This report examines the foundations of the People's Republic of China's policies toward Russia and the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In addition, it discusses what factors will determine the evolution of China's relationships with these countries and how they might affect U.S. regional or global interests. The study was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of Project AIR FORCE. Comments may be directed to the author or Zalmay Khalilzad, the program director. Project Air Force Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in three programs: Strategy and Doctrine, Force Modernization and Employment, and Resource Management and System Acquisition.

Page v Contents Preface iii Figures vii Summary ix Chapter One Introduction 1 Chapter Two Basis Of Chinese Policy 5 Stability on the Border 8 Trade as a Tool for Stability and Development 11 China's Energy Needs 22 Strategic Vulnerability in the PostCold War World 27 Toward a Multipolar World 27 Beijing's Strategic Response 33 Chapter Three Prospects For And Tensions In Sino-Russian Relations 41 Chapter Four Prospects For China's Influence In Central Asia 51 Chapter Five

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