Norman D. Levin - The shape of Koreas future: South Korean attitudes toward unification and long-term security issues
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The shape of Koreas future: South Korean attitudes toward unification and long-term security issues
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South Koreans are moving beyond both the historical and Cold War legacies in their thinking about Koreas long-time security. This major conclusion, which emerges from this report analyzing South Korean attitudes toward unification and long-term security issues, is bolstered by additional findings suggesting potentially significant movement in almost all areas of South Koreas traditional security perspectives. This includes significantly reduced South Korean security anxieties and increased confidence in Koreas place in the regional and global orders. It also includes greater hesitance about reunification, markedly altered attitudes toward Japan, increased discernment about the role of the U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance, and heightened uncertainty about the long-term value of the U.S. regional military presence. Such attitudes could have important implications for both U.S. policy and U.S.-ROK security relations.
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The Shape of Korea's Future : South Korean Attitudes Toward Unification and Long-term Security Issues
author
:
Levin, Norman D.
publisher
:
RAND
isbn10 | asin
:
083302759X
print isbn13
:
9780833027597
ebook isbn13
:
9780585163840
language
:
English
subject
National security--Korea (South)--Public opinion, Korean reunification question (1945- )--Public opinion, Public opinion--Korea (South)
publication date
:
1999
lcc
:
UA853.K6L48 1999eb
ddc
:
951.9
subject
:
National security--Korea (South)--Public opinion, Korean reunification question (1945- )--Public opinion, Public opinion--Korea (South)
Page i
The research described in this report was sponsored by the Korea Foundation. The research was conducted in RAND's National Security Research Division by the Center for Asia-Pacific Policy (CAPP).
ISBN: 0-8330-2759-X
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors.
Copyright 1999 RAND
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND.
Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002 Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org
Page ii
Center for Asia-Pacific Policy
The Shape of Korea's Future
South Korean Attitudes Toward Unification and Long-Term Security Issues
Norman D. Levin
FOREWARD BY Yong-Sup Han
Prepared for the Korea Foundation
Page iii
Foreword
Many have observed that South Koreans have tended to be somewhat insular in their view of the world, with the exception of their aggressiveness in exporting goods and services as a means to accumulate national wealth quickly. This tendency has inclined South Koreans to focus their national policies on rapid economic growth while depending heavily on the United States for their security. Having achieved rapid economic growth, however, South Koreans have made efforts to be more self-reliant in their foreign and security policy. Increasing prospects for the reunification of the entire Korean Peninsula with the end of the Cold War have reinforced the trend toward greater self-reliance. In this light, understanding properly how South Koreans would define and resolve their security and foreign policy problems given Korea's important geostrategic location has become critical for South Koreans themselves as well as for concerned countries.
As I understand it, this is why the RAND Center for Asia-Pacific Policy, together with the Joong-Ang Ilbo, conducted public opinion polls in September 1996 and in February 1999 on South Koreans' perceptions and attitudes toward South Korea's foreign, security, and unification policy. The two polls taken together help to identify how Koreans perceive themselves and other powers in the world and how those perceptions are changing over time. The polls provide a way to understand how South Koreans define the challenges and opportunities in the next ten years and how they confront the problems associated with North Korea, unification, nuclear weapons, the U.S.-Korea alliance, and relations with Japan, China, and Russia.
Page iv
As this report points out, the 1999 poll results indicate that South Koreans' attitudes toward the major powers and the world in general have both broadened and become more realistic. South Koreans value the importance of keeping peaceful and cooperative relationships with neighboring countries as well as maintaining a more generous attitude toward North Koreans in order to contribute to peaceful unification.
This report also discusses how South Koreans are endeavoring to resolve their economic crisis after the historic transfer of political power from the ruling party to the opposition party. In their responses, South Koreans displayed a desire to tackle the economic crisis first before resolving their aspirations for unification. Respondents in the 1999 poll valued the relationship with the United States more than before, particularly with regard to the United States' facilitative role in helping Korea get out of the economic crisis. In a similar vein, respondents increasingly value foreign direct investment in Korea. Interestingly enough, South Koreans have become more generous toward fellow North Koreans in spite of their own economic difficulties.
From a South Korean perspective, two other findings in the report are also significant. First, South Koreans began to more realistically acknowledge Japan's increasing role in both regional security and international organizations such as the United Nations. Compared with the first poll, South Koreans in 1999 are more willing to recognize Japan as a legitimate neighbor rather than simply denounce it for its historical actions against Korea and other Asian countries. As detailed in the report, this latter point is a striking development. Taking a similar poll in Japan could further improve relations between South Korea and Japan.
Secondly, Koreans in 1999 more realistically assessed the value and roles of the U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance. Whereas they placed more value on the alliance's role in maintaining regional stability in 1996, in 1999 Koreans evaluated the alliance more favorably in terms of specific national interests, for instance, deterring a crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Not surprisingly, South Koreans think they would be more likely to need nuclear weapons if the alliance disintegrates than if North Korea succeeds in obtaining nuclear weapons. Despite continuing to value the alliance, however,
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