Hamish McRae - The world in 2020: power, culture, and prosperity
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Examines the forces for change, analyzes their impact over the course of the next twenty-five years, and shares a vision of the social, economic, and political conditions of the future.
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The World in 2020 : Power, Culture, and Prosperity
author
:
McRae, Hamish.
publisher
:
Harvard Business School Press
isbn10 | asin
:
0875847382
print isbn13
:
9780875847382
ebook isbn13
:
9780585238074
language
:
English
subject
Business forecasting, Twenty-first century--Forecasts, Economic history--1990-
publication date
:
1996
lcc
:
HD30.27.M385 1995eb
ddc
:
338.5/443
subject
:
Business forecasting, Twenty-first century--Forecasts, Economic history--1990-
Page i
The World in 2020
Page ii
Other books by Hamish McRae
Capital City (with Frances Cairncross)
The Second Great Crash (with Frances Cairncross)
Page iii
The World in 2020
Power, Culture and Prosperity
Hamish Mcrae
Page iv
Copyright 1994 by Hamish McRae
The Author asserts the moral right to be identified as the author of this work
First published in the United States by the Harvard Business School Press in hard cover, 1995; in paperback, 1996
First published in Great Britain by HarperCollins Publishers Ltd, 1994
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
00 99 98 97 5 4 (pbk)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
McRae, Hamish. The world in 2020 : power, culture, and prosperity / Hamish McRae. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-87584-604-1(hc) ISBN 0-87584-738-2(pbk) 1. Business forecasting. 2. Twenty-first centuryForecasts. 3. Economic history1990 I.Title. HD30.27.M385 1994 388.5'443dc20 94-24545 CIP
The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials Z39.49-1984.
Page v
TO MY FAMILY
Page vii
CONTENTS
List of Tables and Graphs
ix
Preface
xi
Part I Where the World Stands Now
1 What Makes Countries Grow
3
2 North America: The Giant in Retreat
24
3 Europe: The Babble of Many Tongues
47
4 East Asia: The Fragile Boom Continues
70
Part II The Forces for Change
5 Demography
97
6 Resources and the Environment
120
7 Trade and Finance
141
8 Technology
164
9 Government and Society
185
Part III The World In 2020
10 North America
209
11 Europe
225
12 East Asia
245
13 The Prize
263
A Note on Sources
279
Notes and Sources
283
Index
293
Page ix
TABLES AND GRAPHS
page
The rich and the poor
9
GNP/GDP per capita in 1991
26
Health expenditure as a percentage of GDP in 1991
38
Gross saving as a percentage of GDP 1985-89
40
Participation rates in education
41
Proficiency test scores in mathematics and science
78
Average weekly hours of work, selected countries, 1991
80
International comparison of ageing population
100
Comparison of fertility rates
101
International comparisons of external net asset positions
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