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SUNY Series on Critical Issues in Criminal Justice Edited by Donald Newman and Gilbert Geis
Page iii
Prediction in Criminology
Edited by David P. Farrington Roger Tarling
State University of New York Press
Page iv
Chapters 6 and 7 are British Crown Copyright and are reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Britannic Majesty's Stationery Office.
Published by State University of New York Press, Albany
1985 State University of New York
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.
For information, address State University of New York Press, State University Plaza, Albany, N.Y., 12246
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Prediction in criminology.
(SUNY series on critical issues in criminal justice) 1. Criminal justice, Administration ofUnited StatesStatisticsForecasting. 2. Criminal justice, Administration ofCanadaStatisticsForecasting. 3. Criminal justice, Administration ofGreat BritainStatisticsForecasting. I. Farrington, David P. II. Tarling, Roger. III. Series. HV9950.P73 1985 364'.028 84-16447 ISBN 0-88706-004-8 ISBN 0-88706-003-X (pbk.)
Page v
CONTENTS
Preface
vii
List of Contributors
ix
I. Introductory Section
Chapter One Criminological Prediction: An Introduction
David P. Farrington and Roger Tarling
2
Chapter Two The Politics of Prediction
Leslie T. Wilkins
34
II. Parole Prediction
Chapter Three Screening for Risk among Parolees: Policy, Practice, and Method
Stephen D. Gottfredson and Don M. Gottfredson
54
Chapter Four Predicting Failure on Parole
William L. Wilbanks
78
III. Custodial Prediction
Chapter Five Predicting Recidivism Using Institutional Measures
Gillian Hill
96
Chapter Six Predicting Absconding from Young Offender Institutions
David Thornton and Sheila Speirs
119
Chapter Seven Prediction and Treatment of Self-Injury by Female Young Offenders
J. Eric Cullen
135
IV. Other Criminological Applications
Chapter Eight Predicting Self-Reported and Official Delinquency
David P. Farrington
150
Page vi
Chapter Nine Predicting Outcomes of Mentally Disordered and Dangerous Offenders
Tony Black and Penny Spinks
174
Chapter Ten Modelling a Criminal Justice System
R. Gordon Cassidy
193
V. Statistical Methodology
Chapter Eleven Statistical Methods in Criminological Prediction
Roger Tarling and John A. Perry
210
Chapter Twelve Prediction Equations, Statistical Analysis, and Shrinkage
John B. Copas
232
VI. Conclusions
Chapter Thirteen Criminological Prediction: The Way Forward
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1985