Fineman Meredith - Microtrends squared: the new small forces driving the big disruptions today

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ALSO BY MARK PENN

Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrows Big Changes (with E. Kinney Zalesne)

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Copyright 2018 by Mark Penn

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To Nancy, Jackie, Miles, Margot, and Blair

We live in strange times in which numbers and facts seem to hold no weight compared to hunch, belief, and opinion. The motivating idea for the original Microtrends in 2007 was that just below the surface, right in front of our eyes, there were small changes making a big difference. There was also a method for finding microtrends: identifying unusual new developments, checking the numbers, documenting the shifts and their sources, and then projecting possible implications. Some microtrends would turn out to be boons for business owners: one manufacturer even redid his clothing line to sell to the Sun-Haters, parents who had become fanatical about shielding their kids from the sun. Jim Cramer featured the book for a week on his TV show, explaining the implications for investors. The Tory party in the U.K. established a tax credit for people who were partners but living apart, crediting Microtrends as the source. The World Economic Forum held a panel on emerging microtrends. Maureen Dowd wrote in a column Im a microtrendnoting that shed been identified as one of the Impressionable Elites.

Ten years later the world has entered a new phase of change, and I have written Microtrends Squared to make sense of the number of new forces that are emerging and converging now to upend our society in ways that seem inexplicable on the surface. If we dig deeper, we see the contours of clear trends and changes within the chaos, although many of these are working in opposite directions at the same time. As millennials mature, the older generation has reasserted its power. As egghead politics failed, common sense came back in vogue. While our cities were renewed, rural voters roared back into power. As Silicon Valley and the new economy took off, angry old-economy voters spoke up. While technology was providing us with more choices, we have been making fewer choices, burrowing into our comfortable silos. As we sought to eat healthier, protein turned out to be the food of choice. At the same time, globalization and technology continued apace in new directions, some of which may be quite devastating if we fail to understand how to control them and how to make them more transparent.

If you are seeking a simplistic explanation for the disruptions youre living through, you wont find it here. They are the result of a complex set of changes happening all at once. But if you want insight into what is happening, why, and what we need to do to curb some of the dangers of these trends, my aim is to deliver that here. I hope you will also find some new business ideas, some new social trends to consider, and clear explanations of how our lifestyles are adapting to the twenty-first century. I have tried in the opening chapter to place the microtrends you will read about in perspective by reviewing some of the larger forces of change. And in the closing I recommend some specific remedies I believe need to be implemented.

We also revisit a few old microtrends, because they have become even more significant over time. Those who are here without legal documentation have become even more powerful as a political force in the country. Getting married after meeting on the internet has almost become the norm, and this has significant implications on how social class is maintained or mixed up. And the dangers of our educated elites making up their minds not on the basis of evidence but based on talking points they get from the New York Times and cable TV is becoming even more acute. It is turning our representative democracy on its head.

On top of all of these developments, I am concerned that obvious facts today are being ignored in favor of popular narratives. One hundred thousand dollars of Facebook ads, mostly run after the election, somehow supposedly affected a race in which the campaigns spent $2.4 billion. Poll after poll shows more people believe in a Russia conspiracy over the election than there are those who have seen any evidence of such a conspiracy. Typically, it should be the other way around: more people believing something is true should have evidence of it than not. It suggests that we are entering a dangerous period in which the public can get worked up over information on hot public topics that later turns out to be false. One of the strong underpinnings of Microtrends Squared is that we start with the facts and work our way from there to our opinions, not the other way around.

I want to thank my collaborator, Meredith Fineman, for her tireless devotion to the project, for keeping us on time, and for thoroughly exploring all of the ideas I developed. My researcher Amelia Showalter did a fantastic job with the numbers and background material. I thank them both for their incredible contributions and hard work. I hope you enjoy the new trends and then get out there to find the next emerging microtrends.

The Power of Microtrends

We live in a microtrends world. Its driven by granular, often opposite patterns of human behavior that seem small but punch above their size. Weve identified these powerful patterns as microtrends , and the world is full of them. Together, they are the dots of a global impressionist painting that comes to life when you step back and look at it holistically. These forces have only become more impactful in recent years, and theyve started to upend society.