Hal Brands - COVID-19 and World Order: The Future of Conflict, Competition, and Cooperation

1. Hal Brands and Francis J. Gavin
2. Jeremy A. Greene and Dora Vargha
3. Margaret MacMillan
4. Philip Bobbitt
5. Tom Inglesby
6. Lainie Rutkow
7. Jeffrey P. Kahn, Anna C. Mastroianni, and Sridhar Venkatapuram
8. Johannes Urpelainen
9. Jessica Fanzo
10. Christine Fox and Thayer Scott
11. Benn Steil
12. John Lipsky
13. Anne Applebaum
14. Henry Farrell and Hahrie Han
15. Janice Gross Stein
16. James B. Steinberg
17. Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, and William Inboden
18. Thomas Wright
19. Kori Schake
20. Kathleen H. Hicks
21. Elizabeth Economy
22. Graham Allison
23. Eric Schmidt
24. Niall Ferguson

In the heart of Frankfurt, Germany, stands the IG Farben building. Completed in 1930, this massive and seemingly indestructible triumph of modernist design was named for its first owners, the IG Farben Company, at the time Germanys largest chemical conglomerate. Within the decade, IG Farben became deeply entangled with the Nazis and was eventually complicit in many of the worst atrocities of Hitlers Germany, including the manufacture of the notorious Zyklon B gas used in concentration camps.

Following the Allied invasion of Frankfurt in March 1945, the building was evacuated and the corporations executives arrested. When General Dwight D. Eisenhower touched ground and saw that the IG Farben headquarters was one of the few structures in the city to have survived the assault, he decided to make it the center for Allied operations. From his office on the first floor, he not only oversaw the end of the war but also began the meticulous task of rebuilding democracy in Germany out of the ashes of violent dictatorshipan endeavor that, in turn, seeded the ground for a new liberal world order to emerge.

Today, the Farben building exemplifies the very best of that world. A part of the Goethe University in Frankfurt, it serves as the entry point to the universitys sprawling, modern campus. No longer merely a monument to human evil, it is a portal to free inquiry, vigorous debate, and the exchange of ideas that allow global society to thrive, andin times like oursto survive.

The story of the Farben building serves as a metaphor for the trajectory of our world over the past century, embodying the victory over brutal fascism and genocide; the construction of an international system committed to creating a more just, peaceful, and prosperous world; and the difficult, ongoing work of sustaining that project through institutions that forge partnerships and lay the foundation to address global societys most daunting problems.

Yet, as observers and scholars have carefully documented, that order is fracturing. Soaring economic inequality and rapid demographic change have fueled populist resentment, ethno-nationalism, and a sweeping distrust in national and international institutions alike. In parallel, massive shifts in technology and communication have heightened the avenues for surveillance and enabled the proliferation of disinformation. And with the increasing prominence of China on the world stage, along with new waves of authoritarianism cresting across the globe, it is clear that we inhabit a multipolar world whose aims and values no longer necessarily align with those of liberal democracy. At this moment, 54% of the worlds population now lives under some form of authoritarian rule.

The COVID-19 pandemic has only accelerated these trend lines. The United States failures to control effectively and mitigate the virus are reflective of its diminished role as a geopolitical leader, while Chinas admittedly flawed but far more deliberate response has only affirmed its centrality in the 21st-century world order. Meanwhile, the European Union can no longer claim to be a body composed of democratic states. In the early days of the pandemic, Prime Minister Viktor Orbn of Hungary used the virus as a pretext for seizing emergency powers that all but extinguished what little remained of Hungarys once promising democracy, consolidating Hungarys position as the first authoritarian state to be an EU member nationsomething virtually inconceivable a generation ago.