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Nayak Shailesh - Observed Climate Variability and Change over the Indian Region

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Nayak Shailesh Observed Climate Variability and Change over the Indian Region
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Foreword -- Preface -- Executive Summary -- Acknowledgements -- Chapters -- List of Contributors.;The objective of the book is to make a comprehensive documentation of the observed variability and change of the regional climate system over the Indian region using the past observed data. The book addresses all the important parameters of regional climate system so that a physically consistent view of the changes of the climate system is documented. The book contains 16 chapters written by the subject experts from different academic and research institutes in India. The book addresses all important components/parameters of the climate system, like rainfall, temperature, humidity, clouds, moisture, sea surface temperature and ocean heat content, sea level, glaciers and snow cover, tropical cyclones and monsoon depressions, extreme rainfall and rainstorms, heat waves and cold waves, meteorological droughts, aerosols, atmospheric aerosols, ozone and trace gases and atmospheric radiative fluxes. One chapter deals with the past monsoon using monsoon proxy data. The last chapter deals with the future climate change projections over the Indian region (rainfall and temperature) made using coupled climate models. Most of the analyses (especially on rainfall, temperature, extreme rainfall, sea surface temperature, meteorological droughts) are based on the data for a longer period of 110 years, 1901-2010. For some other parameters like moisture, clouds, heat waves and cold waves, atmospheric aerosols, ozone and trace gases and radiative fluxes, data of shorter period have been used. The articles documented inter-annual and decadal variability in addition to documenting long term trends of different parameters. The trends have been tested for statistical significance using standard techniques. It is expected that the present book will be an excellent reference material for researchers as well as for policy makers. These results will be useful in interpreting future climate change scenarios over the region being projected using coupled climate models. Further analysis of these results is required for attributing the observed variability and change to natural and anthropogenic activities.

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Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017
M. N. Rajeevan and Shailesh Nayak (eds.) Observed Climate Variability and Change over the Indian Region Springer Geology 10.1007/978-981-10-2531-0_1
1. Observed Variability and Long-Term Trends of Rainfall Over India
Pulak Guhathakurta 1 and Jayashree Revadekar 2
(1)
India Meteorological Department, Earth System Science Organization, Pune, India
(2)
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Earth System Science Organization, Pune, India
Pulak Guhathakurta
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Keywords
Indian monsoon rainfall North-east monsoon Climate change Rainfall trends Decadal variability
Introduction
Asian monsoon circulation dominates the climate of south Asia. South-west (SW) monsoon season (JuneSeptember) over India is of paramount importance as it contributes about 75 % of the annual rainfall. SW monsoon rainfall over India shows variations in all time scales from diurnal to multi-decadal. It exhibits considerable year to year variability with years of excess rainfall and years of droughts. SW monsoon rainfall plays a crucial role for the sectors like agriculture, disaster management, water resources and power management. Though there is a growth in the service sectors, the Indian economy is still dependent on agriculture and thus the SW monsoon. Instances of droughts and famines associated with weak or deficient monsoons become very critical to the country.
There is a need to review the variability and observed changes of the Indian rainfall and to re-examine the analysis based on longer period of data, 19012010. The present analysis deals rainfall variability and trends during the south-west and north-east monsoon (OctoberDecember) seasons. Attempts are also made to identify the observed abrupt changes in monsoon rainfall at different spatial scales that may be the result of some abrupt changes in climate.
Brief Review of the Past Work
The interannual variability of monsoon rainfall has been rigorously examined by several researchers in the past (Pramanik and Jagannathan ) also assessed long-term changes in global monsoon precipitation. They used three sets of rain gauge precipitation data for the period 19012001 and suggested a decrease in monsoon rainfall over different regions of the world.
Data Used and Methodology
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has recently generated new monthly rainfall data for more than 640 districts (Guhathakurta et al. ). In this time series, the hilly regions of the country are not considered for the analysis.
Existence of monotonic trend in the rainfall time series has been examined using the least square linear fit, and its significance is tested using the Students t-distribution. In addition, we have also used the well-known nonparametric MannKendal trend test to detect the significance trend in the rainfall time series. The statistics used here for change point detection is a nonparametric test, developed by Pettitt ().
Observed Changes in Rainfall Pattern
4.1 Trend and Variability in All India Rainfall
Descriptive statistics along with linear trend (in mm/decade) of all India area weighted rainfall during the SW monsoon season (JuneSeptember) for the period 19012010 are given in Table ).
Table 1
Descriptive statistics of all India rainfall
Winter
Pre-monsoon
Monsoon
Post-monsoon
Annual
Months
JF
MAM
JJAS
OND
Mean (mm)
42.2
128.5
887.0
121.9
1179.6
% of annual rainfall
3.6
10.9
75.2
10.3
Standard dev (mm)
14.2
21.9
87.1
32.2
107.1
Coeff. var (%)
33.7
17.1
9.8
26.4
9.1
Maximum (mm)
89.2
Picture 1
210.7
Picture 2
1084.3
Picture 3
206.1
Picture 4
1463.9
Picture 5
Minimum (mm)
11.6
Picture 6
83.5
Picture 7
674.3
Picture 8
52.7
Picture 9
933.8
Picture 10
Figures in bracket indicate year of occurrence for maximum in green colour and minimum rainfall value in red colour.
Figure . The all India monsoon seasonal rainfall shows significant multi-decadal variation with epochs of above normal and below normal rainfall. Out of the four homogeneous regions, only north-east India (NEI) has shown significant decreasing trends in SW monsoon rainfall during the period, 19012010 as well as during the period, 19512010 (not shown).
Fig 1 36 meteorological subdivisions of India and the four homogeneous - photo 11
Fig. 1
36 meteorological subdivisions of India and the four homogeneous regions, viz. north-west India, central India, north-east India and peninsular India considered by the India Meteorological Department (IMD)
Fig 2 All India south-west monsoon rainfall as departure from mean time - photo 12
Fig. 2
All India south-west monsoon rainfall (as % departure from mean) time series for the period, 19012010 with IMD data ( red in colour) and IITM data ( blue in colour) (color figure online)
Fig 3 31-year moving average of all India south-west monsoon rainfall as per - photo 13
Fig. 3
31-year moving average of all India south-west monsoon rainfall as per cent departure from the long-term mean. The year shown is the central year of the 31-year period
Epochal average rainfall for 30 years and trends in each of the 30 years epoch of the monsoon rainfall averaged over the country as a whole are shown in Table . All India SW monsoon rainfall was in dry epoch during the first two decades (190110, 191120). However, the next five decades (192130, 193140, 194150, 195160 and 196170) were in epochs with above normal rainfall. The present dry epoch started from the period 19711980. The presence of multi-decadal variation was also seen in the monsoon rainfall of the four homogeneous regions. Rainfall deficiency was the largest during the decade 20012010 for NE India.
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